WTH going on with melds?

I just went through 160 LV VII materia to slot the 4th on 1 TOOL and none took. Did SE screw up the script from 7% chance to 0% chance? They may as well have. That's days & hrs wasted from grinding mats that i may as well have flushed down the toilet. :mad:

Sorry wrong place and i cannot delete it

I hope I can explain this mathematically for you, if it helps.

The equation of approximate probability of have at least one successful melding attempt with a 7% chance is equal to 1 - (1-p)^x, where 1-p is your odds of failure and x is your number of attempts.
Let's ask ourselves how many times must we attempt a meld in order to guarantee that one successful overmeld ? Our equation becomes 1 - (1 - .07)^x = .99. Now we need to find x, or the number of times needed to meld to guarantee a 99% chance of an overmeld within x number of tries. Reorder our equation to get .01 = .93^x reorder again to x = ln(.01)/ln(.93).

x = 63.56.

This means that you have a 99.00% chance of a successful overmeld within ~64 tries.

Now you said you tried 160 times. You had a chance of at least 1 chance of a successful overmeld of 99.99%, but not quite 100% chance. And as we know, if it's not 100%, then nothing is guaranteed in the world of crafting.

You have a 7% chance to meld. 7% no matter how many tries is still 7%.

Its rng at its finest.

You had never meld a crafter set dontcha.

Meld frustration does exist and it sucks.

Personally I'd advocate for a trait or if the system would add 1% chance for each failed meld

Welcome to FF14 RNG where anything under 100% might as well be 50% and any lower than that is subject to this game's super-advanced mind-reading Desire Sensor AI that has learned to simulate sadism and then perfected it beyond even human capacity.

Nobody believes me but I KNOW.

So you are my counterpart for inserting 2 5%er on the first try. Thank you for your sacrifice.

After I got to the dark crafting side of XIV, the first thing I learned is when you have 87% success rate, you are in the 13% side.

You were trying something with a 93% chance of failure, and you failed a bunch of times. Like, im sorry it was an extra long string of failure, but thats just life sometimes. And RNG. Life and RNG.

welcome to the rng world of ff14 :)

Few days ago i needed 12 tries to overmeld an item with 58% Chance.
I know it was a cheap materia, but to fail 11 times with a 58% chance... *facepalm :rolleyes:

And thats why i never overmeld to max stats. it's just not worth