story predictions for shadowbringers

thought i'd make this thread so people can make any predictions about what is going to go down in shadowbringers with less than a month to go.

I'm going to make a bold prediction, I think there's a chance the Ascians are defeated in this expansion, Zodiark could be the final boss of this expansion and the ascian storyline will be brought to a close. However the Garlean empire will continue to be a threat and the post expansion patches will focus on the war with the garleans leading up to the garlemald expansion in 6.0. I think Yoshi might have mentioned in the past about wanting to bring the ascian storyline to a close.

To be clear i'm probably dead wrong about this, the ascians will probably continue to be a presence beyond this expansion, just a little theory I thought i'd toss out, what theories do you guys have?

We know what Yoshida-san et al. want to address going into 5.0, but have no idea what they want to have resolved by 5.0, or 5.56, etc. And I've been struggling to predict the finer points of the story since about the time Shinryu showed up.

Part of the problem here is that things can change behind the scenes and it's not really a "retcon" in the sense fans are used to because nothing was ever revealed to them to begin with. If we start learning about something in 2.0 and the developers think about it in a certain way, but by the time the truth is revealed to us the developers think about it another way, it would have been very difficult for us to predict anything at all. Example: After so many hints that Omega was developed alongside Ultima, and that this took place at the Aetherochemical Research Facility, who could have predicted it was alien technology that once warred with Midgardsormr?

With Shadowbringers, there's a lot of getting to the point and tying up loose ends, and it looks to me like a lot of things may not be understood by the devs today as they understood them even at the start of Heavensward. Example: The sudden shifting of the Ascian hierarchy to provide the Source a second Overlord (who was able to get away with skipping the various overlord meetings we've seen thus far) is awkward to me. If this were an internal change, it's not a "retcon" in the traditional sense because because the devs are fantastic at using "new revelations" (addition retcons) to skirt around blatant revision (subtraction retcons), so we're left to make excuses for Emet-selch. Maybe he was too busy playing Solus to come to meetings. When Nabriales(in Japanese) pegged Elidibus and Lahabrea as "the Originals" back in 2.5, maybe he didn't know Emet was out there. Maybe he was being selective about his ranting. Maybe he was specifically referring to intrusion of the Waking Sands (which Lahabrea and Elidibus both had done) and Emet didn't apply.

At any rate, events like this make it difficult for me to guess at anything, but here goes nothing:

The Crystal Tower on the First isn't actually a different structure; it's the same tower that exists in our dimension, but from a different time. Mr. Enigma, who most assume at this point is G'raha Tia, has been using the tower either in unintended ways or at an unintended pace to subvert an unavoidable future by changing the monolithic block of 4D spacetime (in the same manner as Alexander banished himself into a stable temporal loop). By displacing the tower onto the First, the tower of today is able to interact with the tower of the future and create a bridge through which to drag the Warrior of Light via a beacon and a conveniently supercharged Echo, somehow.

From G'raha's point of view, he is changing the initial conditions of 4D spacetime and thus UN-WRITING future-history. Perhaps this is true and we're about to go down the Final Fantasy rabbit hole of alternate timelines and a whole new layer of fractal dimensions. I hope we instead just stick to the Alexander mechanics and the truth is just that, because future G'raha never crossed past G'raha's path, he just dosen't realize that this itself is now the stable loop in which history "has always existed".

Digression: I'm not sure how the body-less Scions on the First are going to get corporeal forms, but ten gil says it's either going to create a convenient excuse for assuming the Warriors of Darkness and Unukalhai weren't possessing people and/corpses or at least finally commit to that they were.

Anyroad, so the Warrior of Light is waiting on the finding of the beacon and the stalemate at the Ghimlyt Dark. Maybe we face Elidibus!Zenos again and actually defeat him like in the trailer. Beacon activates, we get sucked to the First, the Alliance goes on without us. Solus is going to attempt to synergize Flood of Light from First-side to resonate with Black Rose on the Source-side, but who knows if he'll do it now or later. Results are likely tragic.

The Warrior of Light finds themselves wrapped up in the Bringer of Night prophecy that Elidibus let Arbert believe he was fulfilling to lead his party astray. This involves embracing the idea of wielding Darkness, but I'm not sure if it'll involve embracing Zodiark. I think we're going to get more of a "Zodiark isn't evil from His point of view, but He still has goals that look evil from your point of view" than a "Zodiark is actually not that bad, and Hydaelyn's worse than you thought".

New, unpredictable adventures ensue vis a vis the Sin Eaters (who are going to require a fun explanation for how empyrean horrors manifest DURING the Flood of Light but vanish AFTERWARDS, leaving blank perfection in its wake). Blah blah blah, help out the smallfolk, gain the trust of the locals, yadda yadda yadda, cast down primals, upend power structure, Thancred gets a second chance to save Ascilia, heroism, heroism, heroism, night returns to the First, history is "changed".

Meanwhile, back on the Source, things are still playing out the way we were told leads to disaster. Thancred's plan succeeds in fracturing the Empire. Elidibus takes (or already took) an unexpected suckerpunch that skews his "balanced Calamity" plan. Shadowhunter's faction grows. The Alliance makes gains into Ilsabard. Actual!Zenos comes at Varis from stage left. Everything goes to the Seventh Hell just as the Warrior of Light gets back to ripple the changes to history outwards. (If it hasn't happened yet, Black Rose is going off somewhere in that mess.)

Insert big plot twist here.

Triumphant ending bought with the power of friendship and probably some deaths.

Post-credits stinger(s).

I only had a couple of thoughts about things I wanted to see in 5.0, or predictions, and one of them was confirmed in the live letter (learn more about the Warriors of Darkness: Check). I was planning to post a little topic in the lull just before launch to see what stuff people were hoping to see address, and that was going to be my prime example... oh well. At least I know it's coming.


Regardless, I've got some questions about what Krile is going to be up to for the duration - she came to Eorzea with the express purpose of rescuing Minfilia, so for her to sit on the sidelines for this arc feels... odd? So, I predict Krile may be a dark horse thread in the plot.

Also, I have a semi-bad feeling about the status of some of our Scions - Thancred and Y'Shtola. The former has no ability to use aether any more, and the latter is using her own aether in order to see. If the way they were transferred to the First can't be reversed, or the route that got them there is unavailable, I'm concerned neither will be able to return to the Source.

I won't go in depth but here's a small list of things I expect in some shape or form:

With us now more aware of the need for balance, there will be a few grey areas:

-- Elidibus in some form meeting Minfilia - the two Emissaries.
-- Elidibus being less inclined to have us killed now that we're WoD's.
-- Elidibus having to content with Resonant Zenos (attacked, mayhap even killed).
-- Gaius Van Shadowhunter happily slaying Ascians is likely not a good plan for a consistent/balanced future if it tips the scales too far in favour of Hyde.
-- Whatever we do in ShB/1st will buy enough time for Black Rose shenanigans on the source and cause a renewed need to focus on the empire on our return.
-- A conflict between Varis and Solus, given the blatantly obvious hints that while Varis is going along with his alliance with the Ascians, he is not in the slightest bit happy with the fact they are pulling the empire strings. This will likely have something to do sabotaging the clones.
-- While I have no doubt Varis is wholly behind mankind over the Ascians, I'm not entirely sold on him being fully behind the plan of an outright rejoining. Particularly in the "Black Rose" cutscene, it gives you the impression that Varis is just playing the part of puppet to placate Solus, but is otherwise not happy.
-- Resonant Zenos as a whole. The predictable idea (see Pt.3) would be for him to attack Elidibus, likely after we come to fully understand Elidibus (as emissary) has just been doing what he deemed necessary in the name of balance (ie. not exactly Evil McEvil). Cue Resonant Zenos wanting his body back and causing trouble at the worst possible time. As such, with a dead emissary and an ascian slayer on the source unchecked, even if we help to bring back some darkness to the 1st, there's a whole lot of Hyde-balance issues that may cause us problems on the source.

Regardless, I fully expect this expansion to pull at the morality string from time to time. It's one thing just slaying red-shirt beings of 'light' that are made to seem conveniently 'bad' to not make us feel awkward, but to actually have the WoL make some less than noble decisions? Now would be the time to throw mud into the water and really test how far we'd go in the name of Darkness, without losing ourselves.

I think Elidibus is going to end up with a massive wake up call and end up as a more morally ambiguous character, possibly tragic. I actually think this has been foreshadowed in a way. Besides him, the only other character who talks about equilibrium and balance (especially with a ruthless enforcement policy) is Sophia from the Warring Triad. It was made official that the gist of Sophia’s story is that there was a Mycenian family including a father, a mother, and a daughter. The father dies at war with the Allagans, the mother goes insane with grief and begins abusing her daughter. The daughter cries out to Sophia for help and summons the primal, who instructs her that to restore balance she has to kill her own mother. However, this act traumatizes the daughter who is then off-balance herself and so Sophia kills her. Only in death can their be perfect balance.

I think this is relevant to Elidibus because what I suspect will come up is that it is natural and inevitable in life for balance to shift. Sometimes light/good has more weight, sometimes darkness/bad. You can not impose perfect and perpetual balance on any living thing or world, you would need things to never change. That would only be possible in death.

I think the question is why Elidibus wants balance, for it’s own sake or as a path to survival. I do think he has a shred of good in him for saving Unukalhai, and with us confronting a world threatened by Light it makes sense to me that this point is coming up.

I agree with Moose on Zodiark being revealed to not be evil (atleast in the present) but that doesn't mean his morality and actions will be questionable, nor that Hydaelyn will come off looking worse.

Otherwise I don't really have any real story predictions, outside the very unlikey theory that Zenos will find out about us going to the First and make HIS way there as well, always being one step behind us. And no he won't just wait at the hub city, that would be the easy way!

I think we'll likely face Zodiark at some point, but I don't think they'll be having it or the defeat of the Ascians be this expansion.

For one thing the ascians and garlean empire are too intertwined to just defeat the ascians now then deal with the empire itself later. While I think that FFXIV may well end up continuing after the Zodiark/Empire/Ascian story ends, I don't think THIS is the expansion we do it, especially when this expansion is focused on ANOTHER WORLD. That's not to say this plot thread won't advance or anything, but it would be really bizaare I think to defeat the ascians here. It'd be like if in WoW, Sargeras was stopped in Warlords of Draenor instead of Legion.



What I'm mostly curious of now is travel between the First and the Source. I was really hoping they might make it easy enough to RP this. (Most people who role play don't generally RP being warriors of light or even echo users in general) But with job stories going away in favor of role stories focused on the WOD and the First, I have a feeling that won't be happening.

I think it's going to be a rehash of FFXV, only with better world-building and better character motivations.

The WoLD pops out of a crystal in Lestelum the Crystarium, the city that is holding out against the darkness light and is constantly fighting of the scourge sin eaters. The WoLD then goes on a roadtrip with their True Companions bringing back the light darkness to world while fighting the scourge sin eaters off. Throwing a wrench into all of this is the chancellor emperor of the nation that wants to invade the WoLD's nation who does want the darkness light to consume the world, since that would be good for him back home. In the end, the WoLD ends up bringing the darkness back to the realm.

Okay... so I'm kind of kidding...

When it comes to the 5.0 MSQ, I feel like this is the most certain I've been on how an expansion MSQ is going to turn out when it comes to the broad strokes of it. I'm a lot more interested in what is going to take place after the main expansion is over since we can finally get around to doing more MSQ on the source. (Why yes, I do think the 5.0 MSQ is a world-building info-dump disguising itself as a side-quest. I hope to be proven wrong.)

1st Shard is going to get saved from the Flood of Light. We've got leveling zones in there and those have to be accessible outside of the Time Bubble. If a Rejoining/Calamity happens afterwards, there are four other Shards that can be Rejoined so the 1st Shard is't going anywhere. Really, the fact that it's part of the MSQ makes it be one of the most stable locations in the game.

Solus is going to try to cause the Flood of Light to finish. He wants to see how it interacts with Black Rose back on the Source, and to do that more light is needed rather then less. He's probably going to be the real antagonist of the expansion, but I don't think he'll be in danger of dying until after 5.0. I would not be surprised if he turns out to be the 5.3 trial.

Back on the Source, not much is going to be happening on the Alliance's side. Not because they aren't doing anything, but because Varis is having problems back home and is has better things to do then trying to take over Eorzea. Elidibus will probably keep pushing him to do something, and Varis is going to keep pushing back. Rebellions in the Garlean Provinces are probably only going to get worse (and I can't see the WoL leaving without telling Gaius what went down at the Parlay...). And the odds of his son turning up to get his body back are good and Varis knows Zenos taking over the Garlean Empire would be bad on all fronts. And Gaius might turn up and Gaius has strong opinions on who shouldn't be on the throne of Garleamld.

Elidibus is probably having a problem on his hands. The WoL is nowhere to be found on the Source and Elidibus is now stuck in a body, and a very distinctive body at that. He can't just leave Garlemald to oversee what plans the WoL is going to be messing up this time without letting his current plans go. Meanwhile, Varis thinks he can outwit Elidibus, someone is going around killing off Ascian bodies at the least (at worst, they are really killing Ascians, not just their bodies) and it will probably come to light that Zenos' Resonance experiment Went Horribly Right. Hopefully for him, Elidibus will be able to deal with Zenos...

Personally, I think something is going to happen in Garlemald while the WoL is away and the WoL, Scions and the Alliance is going to be too far away to do anything about it. My currently favored theory is that all the Black Rose Varis producing to unleash on Eorzea is going to get unleashed on Garlemald instead. Goodness knows that would be right up Solus' ally. Throw in the effects on the Source from the 1st Shard all of a sudden getting back in balance and... it's not the worst set-up for going to Ilsabard in 6.0

no one of importance dies and the first becomes largely irrelevant after 5.0

I see many point about the Source, but this isn't the expansion for me.
Maybe this will represent like 10% of the story via visions or roleplay.

So, I think, and this is what I like it, is we don't know what will happen on the First.
What's really the story of the First, and of the Flood of Light ? Is there a link (pact) between Eulmore and the Sin Eaters ?
Will we met a hierarchy in the Sin Eater ? Is G'raha Tia still good ? Will there be other (new) ascians playing a role too with Solus ? etc.

They have materials to deliver us good plots and stories.