MCH Flamethrower ticks only hitting for normal damage

Date & Time: 08/04/2018
Frequency: Always
World name: Exodus
Character name: Velinas Dar'korsalar
Retainer name: Nemekh
NPC name: lv 60 Striking Dummy
Monster name: lv 60 Striking Dummy
Class/Level: 70 Machinist
Party or solo: Solo and Party
In-game time: 10:18 AM
Area and coordinates: X: 11.5, Y: 12.3
Housing: Shirogane, Ward 12

Steps:
1. Be a level 70 Machinist
2. Target a Striking Dummy
3. Use Flamethrower for 11 ticks of damage per use
4. Because it is not recorded in the in game battle log, look at floating text damage and see that all values are within the damage range for normal hits
5. Look at floating text numbers and see that there are never any hits that are 1.25 times larger for a Direct Hit, none are at least 1.4 times larger for a Critical Hit and that none are at least 1.75 times larger for a Critical Direct Hit

I spent time manually recording floating damage text to get a sample size of 297 damage events (27 uses of Flamethrower. 1 minute cooldown, it takes a while).

Here is the paste bin of recorded damage

Here is the distribution histogram of the data collected:
https://nemekh.s-ul.eu/FsnHDQCp

The range observed over 297 trials is 1048-1159

If we use limit tests,
For min hit, 1048/0.95 ~= 1103
For max hit, 1159/1.05 ~= 1103

From these we can conclude that these were the observed minimum and maximum damage hits since they both give the same "average" value.

Furthermore we can conclude that the observed damage range is only of normal hits and no Direct Hit, Critical Hit nor Critical Direct Hit events.

DH damage range would be ~1310-1448
Crit damage range without any crit stat would be ~1467-1622
CDH damage range without any crit stat would be ~1834-2027

We know that the base crit rate is 5%. Using Binomial with 297 hits (trials), the probability of observing 0 crit events is < 0.0001%. As such the probability for seeing one or more crit ticks over that many hits is >99.9999%.

My crit stat would give me over 20% crit rate which further cements how impossible it would be to never see a crit provided that Flamethrower damage was meant to do more than just Normal damage.

Similarly with Direct Hit where the rate is over 30%. Never seeing a Direct Hit damage event should not be happening.

Conclusion:
Flamethrower ticks can never do anything other than Normal damage at the present.

It seems to suffer the same problem Scholar's Excogitation did where the ticks could not crit. Excog was changed, so I am hopeful that the fix would be along the same lines as to what has already been done there.


Connection Specs
- Type of internet connection/provider: British Telecome
- Modem maker/model number: Homehub 3

■ PC Specs

-=-=-=-=-=-=- System Information -=-=-=-=-=-=-

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