Ok so heres what I am looking at and I may be wrong so please correct me if I am. NPCs no longer sell Fine Sand, so it is now a crafted item. Here is the possible combonations.
1 Sabre Sardine + 1 wind shard= 1 Sea Sand or
1 Brass Loach + 1 wind shard= 1 River Sand
(yes there are more combos for the same sands but still require 1 shard)
6 sand (sea or river) + 2 lightning and 2 wind= 1 Fine Sand
So if my calculations are correct that is 10 shards and three crafts and 1 gather craft to get 1 Fine Sand. I believe this whole games revolves around Lightning period. As Crafters we rely on Lightning shards in one way or another, whether it be by the crafter that turned the Lightning Crystals into Lightning Shards, or Lightning Shards into other types of shards.
I do believe we will see a decline in crafters leveling their crafts due to shortages in shards. The prices of shards will sky rocket as will all the crafted items in the game because supply will be less than demand. Prior the patch where S.E. took the Fine Sand out of the game shards were on average around 100 gil, and I have seen them as low as 50 gil. Now I cannot seem to find them for any less than 150 on the low side, and I presume they will only go up from there.
Like I said I may be way off base here but, thats what Im thinking.