The chance of winning the 3 lines reward of Wondrous Tails is ridiculously low

So, as soon as the patch notes, I tried to find out how to calculate the probability of winning this mini game, and this is what I deduced.

By fulfilling weekly objectives, you can gain up to 9 seals which are placed randomly on a 4 x 4 grid, as seen in the patch notes screenshots.

There appear to be this many pattern possible :
16!/[9! * (16 - 9)!] = 11440

I was able to identify 24 winning pattern.
http://i.imgur.com/BaOpu2M.png

11440 / 24 = 476

So, after going through the hassle of doing those 9 objectives, you have one chance out of 476 to win the best rewards ?

That's a lot of time for such a little chance.

Feel free to correct me if the calculation is wrong but so far, it seems a really disappointing addition.

yeah and if you do get it, you save like 30-40 million because you don't need to overmeld.

oh look another thread moaning about not getting the best rewards for minimal effort -_-

Yeesh ><

I'd wager it's intentional.
SE likely wants getting gear from this content to be like winning the lottery and not a weekly farm.

And the rewards for hitting that appear to be gear with 5 materia slots. Nothing wrong with it being rare.

Well I heard you guys love Jumbo Cactpot, this is version 3.0 :')

You could always try to get new people into those raids to get those second chance points if you're that close but RNG is RNG eh?

Where does it say you can only get 9 seals? There are 16 objectives, and 1 screen shot clearly shows 15/16 done with 15 seals in their side bar. The only limitation I see is 9 reset points.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Deathgiver

Where does it say you can only get 9 seals? There are 16 objectives, and 1 screen shot clearly shows 15/16 done with 15 seals in their side bar. The only limitation I see is 9 reset points.

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It doesnt show 15/16 seals at all.

Pick up your book.

Choose between the 16 duties you want to complete, on completion of each duty you get 1 random seal somewhere on the grid.

You can only have 9 randomly placed seals on the grid.

Keep doing duties to get the rest of the seals on the grid.

If you get new person bonus you get a Second Chance point, which you can receive a maximum of 9.

You can use these points to either;

A) Retry for 1 point - Restore the status of a completed duty to incomplete, while rendering the status of an incomplete duty to complete.

or

B)Shuffle for 2 points - Shuffle the position of all seals in the journal.
* Only available when current seal count is between three and seven.

Read first people.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Shikiseki

Well I heard you guys love Jumbo Cactpot, this is version 3.0 :')

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Basically this. I wouldn't get too worked up over it. If you hit it big, great. If not, go about life as usual.

Also, I foresee them making adjustments to this as they do with all content implemented. It's awful now, but hey, maybe someday it won't suck. :)

This kind of stuff harkens back to the issue a lot of people seem to have with the game currently, if the probability is 1 out of 476, does the reward translate well with the assigned content? If the gear obtained from this is the best gear in patch wouldn't it be logical to think that by using the ops math, that by the end of the patch the gear out of this mini game will likely already be facing EoL?

For a game that renders each patch gear obsolete every 3 months, having a low probability of getting the gear will likely make this content dead on arrival, maybe I'm wrong, but I it just seems like a really bad way to get players craving that gear, especially if it's targeting old content that SE is still trying to make relevant.