Heart of the Crafter - Small sample data
Number of goods that popped up while Crafter's Soul was active:
0: 0
1: 8
2: 14
3: 24
4: 6
Sample size: 52
Mean: 2.54
95% Confidence Interval: [2.3, 2.78]
Probability you will lose CP: 0.423
Probability you will gain CP: 0.577
Expected Value: +5.77
The results were very streaky as I was recording them, intially showing a very skewed 60:40 ratio for losing CP, all the way up to about 30 trials. On the whole, the ratio looks to be somewhere close to 50:50. Obviously, no solid conclusions can be drawn without a larger sample. Just sharing what I saw.
Edit: These were tested on 1 star crafts, for clarification.
Edit2: Irrelevant fun fact: Maker's Mark gives 12 stacks on 1 star crafts. It's pretty good.