Lore-wise, what's the most/least common Job? (job spoilers)

From most common to least common I'd say:
Dragoon: Everywhere in Ishgard

Ninja: Everywhere in Doma, now quite a few in Limsa Lominsa

Paladin: Sultansworn and some "free-paladins" roaming about

Bard: Moogles are the keeper of the Bard arts and bestow the soul gems and AFs to those whom they consider worthy.

Warrior: Curios Gorge and his brother are the only WARs in Limsa. While the rest are in their village, but the art is slowly dying per generation. Possible some are also wandering as mercenaries

Monks: Most were slaughtered in Ala Mhigo, the rest are in hiding

Black Mage: I can recall 2, but one sacrificed himself. Not sure if the 3 beastmen learned black magic though. Probably the are some black mages in secret

White Mage: Only a select few Padjals can be a WHM. Most speculate that only 3 (the senna siblings) WHM are in existence

Summoner: There was one other SMN. Otherwise those who expose themselves with a primal's aether can theoretically become summoners

Scholar: Need to find a SCH soul gem to get a fairy. Unless you catch one in the wild.

Dark Knight:???
Astologian: Certainly alot more common than WHM or SCH
Machinist: Well, they do have a guild in Ishgard, so I'd imagine is there's alot more machinists than most jobs

You forgot BLM. There are only 3 BLMs that are out in the open. The rest are either nonexistent or in hiding.

Sch originates from around the fall of Nym, and if I remember right, you and the transformed lala hanging out in WP are the only ones (still with their faculties).

They're all pretty rare. The stories are all about our characters exploring lost or obscure arts.

None are - Jobs are actually either disciplines from former times that have fallen out of use, been banned/forbidden, or are very exclusive in their membership training. Most npcs generally just have base classes instead of Jobs, and this runs the full gamut of Disciplines of War and Magic. ACN curiously seems to be the class least favoured by npcs and enemies though.

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Originally Posted by myahele

From most common to least common I'd say:
Dragoon: Everywhere in Ishgard

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Dragoons are special, there's only one other true Dragoon in Lore.

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Originally Posted by jomoru

Dragoons are special, there's only one other true Dragoon in Lore.

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Nope, Dragoon are probably the most common job (paladin would be second imo); just talk to the Drg trainer, they're an elite order of Ishgard Knights (and watch the Heavensward trailer...bunch of people in the Drg AF).

What the player is specifically is supposed to be unique; the Azure Dragon. The leader of the Dragoons, (s)he is alone at her rank, chosen by the Eye for the task. However...there are two Azure Dragons right now, as explained by the Drg story

To be honest I feel like lore wise the classes should be a lot more common considering the amount of gear that exists for them not to mention the fact that this is an MMO, not a single player game. How do you explain hundreds of different classes populating the cities when there are just supposed to be a handful (of most classes anyway) that exist within the lore? Not too smart on SE's part. They could have easily made the numbers of existing classes higher within the lore (like WoW for example)

you forgot to mention that whm have other whm other than you and padjal (lore thread confirmation) but are in hiding.

Technically summoner would be the rarest since you kill the only other known summoner at the end of the job quest line, leaving you as the only one. Scholar is arguably joint with summoner but it's debatable whether any further tonberry scholars exist beyond the one you encounter.

Beyond those two all of the other jobs come from formal organisations that still exist in some from, though the black mages and warriors are either in hiding or dying out and the white mages keep their numbers low as per the padjali agreement with the elementals.

The most common would almost certainly be dragoon seeing as they seem to be the frontline troops against the Dravanians in Ishgard.