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Quality do affect HQ
What most people forget/ignore is the fact that there are at least 3 degree of HQ: +1, +2 and +3. HQ +1 does not require a minimum Quality, however +2 and +3 do and in my own experience you need a minimum 100+ Quality for +2 and 200+ Quality for +3. Yes it is better if we can see more of the correlation between Quality and HQ, but don't forget part of it is already there.
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I have tried to make a scatterplot of my hq tier versus quality of iron nugget synths to figure out if hq rates are flat tiers, first, or second degree... but I ragequit it after about 150 entries when ten synths over 400 quality failed to hq1.
I agree that it takes x quality to "unlock" hq tiers, but still have no quantifiable data.
And I wish mat synths allowed touchups or were more forgiving in hq rates.