ST Loot 'n Leave impact on odds for remaining party members- your thoughts?
This isn't a complaint about me not getting something I wanted; in fact I did, so the question is more academic in my case, but is think it's a scenario where I can see people getting screwed over and not even realizing it.
So last night as I was running ST for maybe the fifth time since the reset (having first invested 40 minutes waiting through Withdraw spams when 23/24 people had Confirmed 5 minutes into the wait- SE you have no excuse for not addressing that by now)- a DPS got loot at the first boss and immediately ditched before the next fight. As a DPS they were instantly replaced, so no harm no foul right?
But here's something I was thinking about- each time a party member gets a loot item (and corresponding lockout for the week)- that increases the odds of remaining party members to get remaining loot should they want it. Say 5 party members only want an Oil if it drops, and 3 are casters who only want whatever Scylla casting gear they can get. First drop is Scylla caster gear, all three casters Need it, 1 gets it, that means the other two casters share a 50/50 shot at any further casting drops (vs 33% chance at the beginning). And the odds for those who want an Oil stay at 1/5 IF it drops. BUT if the person who got the loot leaves and is replaced with a new party member, depending on what they want, the ones who have been there since the beginning now face worse odds as a direct result... making it potentially a 1/6 chance to win for the Oil or 1/3 for a future Scylla gear drop in this simplified example. In other words, my opinion is each party member who gets loot and leaves, thereby letting in party members who aren't loot-locked to replace them, screws over the odds for the rest of the party. Assuming no loot gets passed on, the odds for players to get remaining items from the last boss should be as good as 1/4 or 1/5; but if everyone in the party who scores loot leaves and gets replaced, the odds could be as bad as 1/8.
That might not seem like such a big deal, until you also account for the fact that not everything everyone in the party wants is going to drop and they're probably going to have to do multiple runs to get it... and when it does drop, if it's desirable chances are decent they're going to be rolling against others so it could take many runs of after a specific thing. So your odds of getting what you want on an individual run are really low before the fact, but when what you want does drop, any players from that run who have gotten their weekly loot and dropped out have most likely impacted your odds in a significant way- or at least that's how I'm starting to perceive it. I got the UAT I wanted but if I'd been patrolled solely by the replacement for the person who left I'd have been pissed (towards the one who left, not the replacement). This also makes spamming Withdraw for a Join in Progress that much more rewarding, as compared to running the whole dungeon for a 1/8 chance at end boss loot.
What do you think?
A) This is acceptable behavior, get over it, waiting in queue for ST and changing classes a dozen times just to commence because someone only wants a Join in Progress is not that much of an inconvenience anyway.
B) People who do this are rotten and selfish and part of the reason the word 'toxic' is used so much in relation to the FFXIV ARR community.
C) Derp S-Rank Hunt Mark is up in Coerthas!!!
D) It's ok to do this and everyone should be able to bail ST after getting loot because ____.
E) I don't run ST and have a strong opinion I'd like to share anyway- please provide your answer in the designated box located on the back of this webpage after flipping it over.