Ultima HM Caster Ring Drop

So I have downed Ultima HM 58 times now (ridiculous, I know; it's personal now). No caster ring. My group makeup has varied from having multiple casters (i.e. 2x BLM, 1x SMN), to me being the only caster (BLM). I'm wondering if there's something I'm doing to nerf my chances of this dropping?

By my math, which I'm sure is wrong, there are 10 items that drop in this trial, so a 10% probability. Of course my odds don't increase/decrease depending on the previous drop(s), so it's always 10% (unless group makeup alters this percentage). I don't think I'm falling victim to the gambler's fallacy. In this case, 100*(0.9^58) (probability of NOT dropping caster ring ^ 58 kills) puts me at a 0.22% chance that this wouldn't have dropped by now.

So my question is, is there anything I can do to increase the likelihood of it dropping? By the time I get the ring, I'm sure I'll have my 2nd i90 ring and it won't even matter. Like I said earlier...it's personal!

Ultima is now aware....Ultima shall keep your ring through eternity :p

Anyway, I don't bud. Tough break man. GL out there dude :D

As you can see in this thread http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...ghlight=ultima, bard accessories dropped about 1/3 of the time, maybe more. Have you experienced a lot of bard drops?

I've beat ultima twice. First time there was a bard accessory and second time healer accessory.

As far as increasing the chance of it dropping, there's nothing you can do but keep trying. Some people tried the hard mode primals over 100 times and didn't get a primal weapon. It sucks but bad luck can happen. If the bard accessories are dropping too much then that would negatively affect other drops.

Yeah, most all of the time it's bard or tank drops. I've seen almost as few healer accessories as caster. It's unfortunate. Thanks for the word of support guys! Take care and good luck!

OMG 58. xD

I have only beaten Ultima 4 times, drops are:
2 BRD rings;
1 PLD/WAR ring;
1 DRG/MNK choker.
No casters' ring, you can add mine to your pool.

10 brd bracelets, 6 blm rings, 1 whm ring, 1 pld ring.

Cued up and got called a f'in noob for never having done the fight and asked all new people to leave because the party didnt want to have to teach "the idiots" basic competence and fight mechanics. so Wins-0

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Seezur_Undies

Cued up and got called a f'in noob for never having done the fight and asked all new people to leave because the party didnt want to have to teach "the idiots" basic competence and fight mechanics. so Wins-0

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Wow....talk about getting a party filled with jerks. Should tell them to get their own premade group or just suck it up. If they harass you, you can report them. Don't need jerks like those in the game.