Gathering and probability....

Dear SE,

Please purchase a one-hundred-sided die. Roll it 4 times.
How many times did it roll a one?
Roll it 4 more times? How many ones did it roll this time?
Continue to do this several hundred more times.

I guarantee you will roll a ones FAR LESS than I fail at gathering at 99%.

Now purchase a ten-sided die. Roll it 4 times.
How many times did it roll a one?
Roll it 4 more times? How many ones did it roll this time?
Continue to do this several hundred more times.

Hmmm, this actually seems closer to what I get with gathering fails.

Perhaps someone should explain to you that 1/100 =/= 1/10

Yeah I've noticed the probability is a bit off too. I was at 78% on an item earlier and failed about 15-16 times in a row...

I've basically found that in Eorzea for gathering the percentage is more like:

80% = 40%
85% = 50%
90% = 60%
95% = 70%
99% = 80%

yeah, there rng generator in this game is garbage. why even bother to lie to us about the percentages in game? we'd probably be happier with a text that just said low medium high percentage then numbers that mean absolute poop-all

85% and miss 4 out of 5 times.

The chance to fail 4 or 5 times in 5 gathers with 85% chance is 1 in 395. Since people probably gather considerably more than 395 times if you do a lot of gathering, it'd actually be pretty weird to not fail 4 times in 5 gathers at some point.

One of the really simple things about probabilities is that if something happnens 1 in 1000, but you're doing the activity 1000 (or more) times, it's very likely you'll see a 1 in 1000 event at some point. There's an experiment where a teacher had students roll a 6 sided dice 100 times and write down the results, and have other students just fake 100 rolls, and the teacher was able to identify all the fake rolls because they didn't have stuff like rolling the same number 3 times, even though there's a 94% chance you ought to roll the same number 3 times in a row in 100 rolls.

In my opinion, it does go both ways. I fail way more than expected with a 99% chance, and get a HQ result way more than expected as well. I suppose I should just go with it, but it bothers me every time I get multiple fails in a row at 97% to 99% chance, multiple nodes back to back.

Read up on the probability of stuff like rolling 2 six-sided dice and getting snake eyes more than 3 times in a row.

In other news, if SE opens a casino, do NOT gamble there!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Astarica

The chance to fail 4 or 5 times in 5 gathers with 85% chance is 1 in 395. Since people probably gather considerably more than 395 times if you do a lot of gathering, it'd actually be pretty weird to not fail 4 times in 5 gathers at some point.
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that would be fine and dandy if it wasnt happening MORE OFTEN THAN NOT. I know a lot of people who have the same issue and see plenty about it on the forums as well. Percentages just seem off for crafting and gathering in this game, and a lot of people notice it.

What are the odds of missing a 93% gather 14 times in a row? cause I did that nearly 3 times yesterday.

I've had 99% chance to get it, missed 3 and got 1 on a node.

I think I slapped my desk that day lol

on a 45% HQ chance, I got 4 HQ in a row, then later on, on a 10% chance HQ I got 4 HQ in a row, when mining

so it goes both way