Crafting Success for skills and HQ items seems somewhat off

lets just say you get the HQ to 10% for example

Basic touch has a 70% of success add that with steady hand which is a extra 20%

So basic touch has a will then have a 90% chance of success for 5 turns.

There is only 10% of a chance for failure with basic touch.

Back to the item that has 10% HQ.

A majority of the time when completing a item with 10% HQ it will be very rarely that it will come out as a HQ item.

But on the other hand when using basic touch with steady hand, which should theoretically only have 10% of fail, that 10% fail seems to happen a hell lot more often then getting a HQ item from 10% HQ.

It more feels like the success rate of basic touch with steady hand is more 60-75% then actually 90% combined.

Anyone else have this suspicion.

I regularly fail to HQ at 80%+.
I tend to not trust the % unless it says 100%.

Regularly meaning far more often than I HQ below 50%.

I do have an inordinate amount of failures when I have 90% success. Usually when it's most important that I don't fail. I won't craft without Steady Hands because of it.

It's all in your head. RNG test results: http://www.reddit.com/r/ffxiv/commen..._test_results/

You tend to remember the failures better than successes. Source: I majored in psychology.

Hmm Im leaving for work now. I will see if I get some spare time to explain this to you. You are just a little confused.

I think the percent is a base number that doesn't factor in control, your level, level of synthesis etc. On the DoH forums I think I saw people discussing formulas for success rates.

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Originally Posted by Ventus

I think the percent is a base number that doesn't factor in control, your level, level of synthesis etc. On the DoH forums I think I saw people discussing formulas for success rates.

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No, control and craftsmanship affect how much of the bar will fill upon a successful action.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

BT+SH comes to 90% success rate. But that is still left to chance, and unless you can 100% guarantee an increase in quality you are still rolling the dice. If something is supposed to happen 9 times out of 10, that doesn't preclude said thing from not happening repeatedly.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HorrorStory

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

BT+SH comes to 90% success rate. But that is still left to chance, and unless you can 100% guarantee an increase in quality you are still rolling the dice. If something is supposed to happen 9 times out of 10, that doesn't preclude said thing from not happening repeatedly.

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yea i understnad that but what im saying is that the complete opposite of what you just said is happening in the Failing part 10% failure seems to come up 3-6 times out of 10 in every lot of 10.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by axemtitanium

It's all in your head. RNG test results: http://www.reddit.com/r/ffxiv/commen..._test_results/

You tend to remember the failures better than successes. Source: I majored in psychology.

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i know we dont take much notice of success as we do of failure but still there are some, how would you say it, bullcrap failure streaks that happen at times.