Originally Posted by
Bourne_Endeavor
I will preface my response by saying it's entirely speculative. So please keep that in mind.
That aside, I suspect the upswing in 4.1 came due to players still returning, Ultimate and Rival Wings. Both were hyped exceptionally, especially the latter in conjunction with the PvP changes. Collect all that with an easier Savage and promises of a scaling difficulty, and people had more to keep themselves occupied. Something else you can attribute to increased subs in 4.1 is raiders opting to stick around. After all, they now had Ultimate whereas before, they didn't have a whole lot to do. Additional housing wards also came out around this time. So why the subsequent drop? Rival Wings imploded while Savage being made easier also meant it possessed less longevity. The reception towards Alte Roite and Catastrophe weren't exactly stellar either, at least amongst my own circles. Even casual groups like NEST pointed out Alte Roite was a bit too easy, which says something.
As more players finished Stormblood, I wager many found there wasn't actually all that much available with any lasting appeal. The PvP "improvements" bombed, hard, and 4.1 offered very little outside niche content. Therefore, when 4.2 came around, you saw a noticeable dip—one that only recovered because Eureka was supposed the "next big thing." That brought players back given how much focus was placed on it's innovation. And the divisive response is why those active numbers dropped sharply thereafter.
We may see another upswing around 4.4 because of the Monster Hunter Collab, but I guarantee it will plummet severely come 4.5, especially if we're given no new surprises beyond more Eureka.
Stormblood has basically fed off constant hype yet poor sustainability. Be it Ultimate, PvP, Eureka all the way to something as simple as job gauges. They were all hyped substantially despite only Ultimate paying any real dividends. And if 4.5 does repeat the drought of 3.5, I cannot help wonder if people's faith will have been spent. After all, if they follow predictable patterns, we're looking at a very lengthily drought with virtually nothing to do. Stormblood was supposed to SE's chance to be innovative. Instead, they played it punishingly safe, going so far as to make everything even easier. I just can't see them getting away with a retread of that same philosophy come 5.0.