A Random Comment

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Originally Posted by IndigoHawk

Human use "better than safe sorry" and "common sense" statistics, not "A causes B".

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Human mind works in "A cause B", and a major part why people are bad with true randomness is that neural networks are meant to approximate hidden formulas (those "F: A -> B" in nature). And when there is a random, they are stuck as they try to found causation and pattern, and there is no for it.

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Originally Posted by Welsper59

I appreciate the response on the matter, and while it really might just be a fallacy, consistent and predictable outcomes really do still raise a flag. When your norm is to fail more than succeed, regardless of the fact that it is significant odds in your favor (70% or greater success chance), and has been occurring over thousands of instances from any given individual, it might still be worth looking in to. I would not question the system in place if it weren't for the fact that the opposite does not hold up... ever.

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This is another cognitive bias.
You really should keep track your success and fails as humans perceive fails more seriously than successes (up to 2 times), so even if you have absolutely uniform distribution which gives you 50%/50% chances, in a long run you'll feel that you fail more than succeed due to difference in mental perception.
In nature it's more important to punish for failure, that to reward for success. Thus discrepancy in strength.

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Originally Posted by Lexxuk

Tiggy, the time and cpu clock etc. are all known and constant variables, let's go with the system clock, the seed is 9am on the 1st June 2014, you can (if you know the seed date) know what the 1,000,000,000th number is, it isn't random, it has an end result which can be known, there is a 0% chance that you *know* if a coin is going to be heads or tails next toss, it's true random.

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It actually can, as you can get an unpredictable seed if you apply the same chaos theory. For instance game can take a first several bytes of data from last TCP packet it got at the moment of seed generation. As there lots of such packets, its not really possible to determine seed and thus number will be random.
Most of randomness in real world occur due to the same reasons. There are explicit formulas for many parts, even human behavior is algorithmic by its nature. Problem arise due to many formulas sensitive to very high orders/small parameters (so called butterfly effect) making proper tracking almost impossible.

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Originally Posted by Kaonis

Aaaaand the problem the devs fail to miss is it's not just a bias we're believing we are seeing, that "Oh crap I failed on a 90% 3 times in a row!" isn't a one time deal, it happens...a lot....far too often fora real RNG. To put it in perspective, to fail a 90% chance action 3 times in a row is a 1/1000 odd. When this happens once it sucks, when it happens twice, you have bad luck, when it happens consistently there's a clear bias in the program. I can't even explain how many times on BTN I failed at a node 3-4 times with an 80%. There seems to be a very clear pattern where their algorithm likes to keep failures going in a row.

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I HQ'd 3 crafts in a row at 15% HQ with just HQ materials and NO touch actions. You and everyone else are just in denial really.

While i thank them for taking the time to tell us this information, i still don't believe this. After leveling botanist to 50 and miner to 47, i can certainly say the negative is way higher than the positive when it comes to this games RNG system.

An example would be my lastest day of mining i did for daily turn in items. 91% success chance which would leave 9% chance to fail. But i had 15% chance to HQ. Can you guess qhich one i did more of? If you guessed failed you're correct. And not just slightly, i failed atleast 3X as many times as i HQ'ed. When i finished mining, i had 11HQ and 183 NQ. Now, last i checked that doesn't seem like 15% to me. From my observation, unless you have 100% success rate, expect atleast one fail.

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Originally Posted by LeonBlade

I HQ'd 3 crafts in a row at 15% HQ with just HQ materials and NO touch actions. You and everyone else are just in denial really.

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Not to call you out but... I call BS on this. Not impossible i agree, but very higherly unlikely. :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by DeceptionsWrath

Not to call you out but... I call BS on this. Not impossible i agree, but very higherly unlikely. :rolleyes:

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0.3% - it rather high chance.
I saw myself chances like 1:150,000 (like failing to mine 4 times in a row having 95% chance to success).

two full weeks of atma's grinding, around 4-6h a day and the four days of week-end a nearly 10h each days of ONLY exclusively Atmas' grinding, varying zones back and forth two of them really = end result....NOT A SINGLE ATMA, I stopped. the other day I was walking around stopped for a low fate, gave one or two hits and got by first atma...since I have done lots of fates and not a single one ever dropped ever again since.

For craft, often if not always, I have around 80 % of the HQ done and still fails (almost always rarely ever succeeds in any of the crafts be it alchimist, goldsmith, any of them really). Rarely I get a HQ done out of the blue if it doesnt reach 100 %. More then not when in a dungeon I draw 1 yep the number 1, but mostly by drawings are comprised between 15-40, with some lucky draws at 70 and only a couple of times above 90 and I play since some times.

Anything that has to do with luck or RNG in a computer needs to be programmed, can you really come to tell me that a computer can decide what to do being by that an artificial human brain to generate on its one will whatever needs to come out without it being instilled to him? this is the first thing we are tought in computer classes, a computer does only what you tell him to do and is not a human brain.

Conclusion: some people are just naturally unlucky and others naturally lucky...once you know this you get on with your own life.

Although.----Murphy's law exist right ?

Mei

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Originally Posted by MeiUshu

For craft, often if not always, I have around 80 % of the HQ done and still fails (almost always rarely ever succeeds in any of the crafts be it alchimist, goldsmith, any of them really). Rarely I get a HQ done out of the blue if it doesnt reach 100 %.

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I think you just perceives and thus remember fails way too stronger than successes.
I do crafting in a huge volumes (and did gathering in the past) and when you look at final results, even though "i saw so many fails at 80%" or "i failed to get HQ for last 10 nodes and failed 4 times in a row with 95%" - final distribution of rewards on 100-200+ items are quite close to theoretical mean.

In my opinion you can only see the % amount versus random good when you do 100+ items.

But when do you do such a large amount of crafting? I only when I got a huge amount of low level normal ingredients.
Luck stays luck, an increase % like from 30 to 70 does increase it, in the end it is still about luck.

I do understand the frustration a lot, it made me stop leveling crafting, and only focus on supply missions.

Do I want to change it? No, I am no real crafter, I just want all classes to 50. So now with supply missions I will get there, but it will take much longer.
Give a better succes rate, and I would level all crafting classes so much faster. Which I don't deserve, in my honest opinion.

With atma I want to keep this random thing. I don't want guaranteed win, this is about patience and the will to go on.
While very frustrating, I don't want it to change. I am still busy with it myself, but I really would hate it if they made it easier.

I wish it was only me remembering fails rather then success but the proportion would be 98 % fails and 2 % successes...which is ridiculous in regards to the amount of crafting and even gathering..my servants bring me more high quality materials then I am ever able to get in hours worth of mining or botanist...

But hey, when you know is RNG and this is my whole point, is pointless to complain either live with it or just move onto something else. I am currently doing my armorsmith lvl 45 quest..I already created 3X3 items with 95 % of HQ material and I have yet to get any of the 3 a HQ final material, I can sell it but I sure wish my RNG was a bit better right? for my weaver I had to buy the material I gave up after 5x3 attempts on my lvl 50 job quest....fail each time..lol

Anyway, these complains on it are pointless, sure I wish RNG was better and I was luckier in getting the right time in to not lose time but alas...this game is a time sink and once you know this..well any complains are useless

Mei

What totally boggles my mind is that I can craft HQ items with NQ materials using quick synth... if i make a big batch of an item I will often get 1 - 2 HQ items. That just tells me that the % of quality when doing normal synths is broken surely it shoudl be 0% chance of HQ?. Too many times I have had 96 - 98% HQ and failed! Failing on that same 1-2 % chance soo many times is impossible! nobody can be that unlucky!

I don't know what the percentage drop rate is for the Mirror in Levi EX is but if it was even 1-2% surely i woudl have seen it more times than just once in 100+ runs if the same rules applied to how many times a HQ synth can fail on just 1-2%?!