[4.4 Discussion] "Change the Future"

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Originally Posted by Cybylt

Some problems there I think.

The Burn is between Garlemald and Othard, not Ala Mhigo.
Cid didn't make that thing, the Sharlayans did, we dug it out of the Gubal Library.
A flood of light, to our knowledge from 3.4, isn't just some big aether explosion.

Some supposition but I think the outcome of the Crooked Coin being overloaded is more like to be like the end of Allagan Empire. It's basically an aetherial electrical grid substation and the vast majority of them were overloaded when Dalamud was hooked up to the network, blew up, and caused the "Calamity of Earth."

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Aether does strange things when it blows up in such violent fashion...

It was mentioned in the story that there isn't a refueling station in Rabanastre anymore for the ships. If the Garleans are going to demolish Ala Mihgo with ease as Zelidibus suggests, its going to be by getting airships to make the trip.
It seems strange to me that the House would have that particular rumor from the Dotharl about it, as well as the stated fact that by turning on its aether output will have large environmental effects. Aether does weird things at times, if the Dotharl's rumor and Y'shtola's observation have weight, perhaps an explosion of that same energy across the land would have results akin to the flood.

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Originally Posted by Kallera

Aether does strange things when it blows up in such violent fashion...

It was mentioned in the story that there isn't a refueling station in Rabanastre anymore for the ships. If the Garleans are going to demolish Ala Mihgo with ease as Zelidibus suggests, its going to be by getting airships to make the trip.
It seems strange to me that the House would have that particular rumor from the Dotharl about it, as well as the stated fact that by turning on its aether output will have large environmental effects. Aether does weird things at times, if the Dotharl's rumor and Y'shtola's observation have weight, perhaps an explosion of that same energy across the land would have results akin to the flood.

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That was all in service to the defense of Doma. Ala Mhigo is west of Ilsabard while Rabanastre is east of it. Judging off the world map, Ala Mhigo is even closer to the Garlean capital than Rabanastre is.

To my understanding of the scenes, The Crooked Coin throughout the Dotharl history was a dammed resevoir of aether that funneled energy away from locations. This could include people who threw themselves upon it. What Y'shtola did was open the floodgate, restoring natural flow of energy.

Then there's the way the Flood of Light happened. By the Warriors' account what they had done was quash all Darkness in their world until all of creation began to de-aspect, that doesn't sound the same as a flood of ambient aether flowing through the world.

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Originally Posted by Theodric

There's a lot we know that the protagonists don't, of course...but at this point in time it is the Eorzean Alliance that is the aggressor rather than Garlemald. We also now know that Garlemald's past aggression was the result of Ascian meddling.

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No one in the Eorzean Alliance knows that Ascians are directly in charge of Garlemald instead of just working behind the Emperor's back. For all the Eorzean Alliance knows, the Garlean Empire is about to do exactly what Elidibus wants them too; march on Ala Mhigo and overrun it. Again. The protagonists can in no way be blamed for knowing things they have no way of reasonably finding out without breaking the fourth wall.

I mean, what is the Eorzean Alliance supposed to do at this point? Wait for Garlemald to invade them again? Everyone would be complaining about why couldn't they have been proactive about preventing it in some way!

It'd be one thing if the voice told the Eorzean Alliance that spreading that kind of information in Garlemald to cause another civil war would be a bad idea. It didn't. It's as vague about specifics as it can possibly be and until anyone figures out how to verify what it is, nobody has any good reason to even trust what it is saying. Everyone knows that the Ascians love spreading misinformation. They've yet to find any reason this isn't more of the same. The voice is also confirming things the Scions already know, but offering no way for them to solve the problem. In fact, it makes the problem worse. The Scions knew that the signs for a coming calamity were there and were sopped from doing anything with that information. It also in no way stopped the Eorzean Alliance from doing what they had planned to do. They are still going to spread information in Garlemald about Zenos being possessed with the hope to spark another Civil War.

Really, the only new thing the Voice told everyone was that a Flood of Light was coming. But still, what are we supposed to do about it? The last Flood of Light was stopped (assuming this is talking about a different Flood of Light on a Shard other then the First) by getting Hydaelyn's attention and her sending her Emissary to that shard to decrease the amount of light. We (the WoL) really didn't do anything about the Flood. Urianger did. And he's in a coma same as the rest of the Scions.

If the goal of the Voice was to stop the Eorzean Alliance from trying to cause a Civil War in Garlemald, it failed spectacularly. If anything, it galvanized the Eorzean Alliance to try to succeed at it even more given the person who suggested it was knocked out by the Voice.

There are so many unknowns about the Voice that I think getting attached to any one interpretation of what it is and why it did what it did is setting people up for disappointment once we do find out what it going on with it.

The Eorzean Alliance and Scions may not have all the details though that does not change that they have been the aggressors since right before Stormblood. At this point, the situation is shaping up to be similar to Ishgard's bitter struggle. A war founded on false beliefs. As another poster so aptly put it, they're succumbing to their own hubris. The Warrior of Light is a powerful tool - and wielding that tool incorrectly is a recipe for disaster.

I'm not terribly worried about setting myself up for disappointment, either. Thus far a lot of my own speculation regarding specific characters and their circumstances/motivations has proven to be correct. I claimed that there was more to Regula, Fordola, Yotsuyu and Varis. In every case, it turned out to be true despite many here trying to paint them as outright villains with few, if any redeeming qualities. I feel it's safe to state that there's a good chance that the story is moving in a direction where the Eorzean Alliance and Scions are not as pure and righteous as they like to believe. Furthermore, I feel like there's a strong chance that things will not be so simple with this mysterious voice, either.

In fact, I distinctly recall being outright insulted and mocked on this very board for proposing that Omega's story would involve shades of grey and an element of tragedy...and yet that was precisely what happened. ;)

I think calling the Alliance aggressors as far as back then ignores some of the framing of our being in Ala Mhigo. First part it being a plot to frame the Alliance by Ilberd when the alliance was okay with simply shoring its own defenses. Second part being that we would have backed out and gone back to doing just that if the native people denied us. We were very specific in the process of getting the permission of Ala Mhigans, that we would be acting as allies in the restoration of their sovereign nation against a foreign oppressor, rather than as an invasive force with a different coat of paint on it and just as importantly left it a sovereign nation when we finished its liberation.

Next up is the matter of Garlean international relations. We just found out that their attempt at making treaties was a big false flag operation to give an excuse to redouble their war efforts and silent dissenters and that they'd rather wipe a city off the face of the planet than loosen their grip further. That's not the actions of a country preparing to do anything but murder its neighbors. How far does Garlean aggression have to go before they're held accountable for their end of it?

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As a place with individual people I'm sure there are plenty normal, good citizens of the empire. But the way they handle business with other nations is just a checklist of every crime of imperial colonialism and by their track record that's not going to change by peaceful means because their leadership denies peaceful means and willingly kills those on the inside that try to achieve it.

With 4.4 I wound up pleasantly surprised by Varis being a true believer to self-determination while at the same time... "Oh wow you mean this violently expansionist, racist military regime was founded for the express purpose to do evil and sow discord? Whaaaaat?" which is what lead me to believe Varis was a fake. But it goes deeper than him. So there's hope, faintly. But he needs to drop his own hubris and accept the help of outside people, as Regula suggested.

Got sidetracked there, Varis being a true believer to the doctrine lends him to being a Fordola situation, and the revelation of Solus could be for him what the defeat of Zenos was for her. Shattering a worldview he was likely indoctrinated to at a young age.

How are the Scions succumbing to their own hubris? At least, any more so then they usually do. Everything since 2.0 started (for that matter, 1.0) has been based on the Scions working with whatever information they have available to them at the time. And so far it's worked out pretty well for them. They have very little reason to stop doing what they do.

I think the only time they've "succumbed to their own hubris" as you put it was when Alphinaud created the Crystal Braves. And he's determined since then to not do that again.

Like it or not, the Scions are considered experts in their respective fields by an organization that is arguably the most well educated organization known to the three continents. They are Archons for a reason. If they don't decided to do certain things, no one else in Eorzea is going to because everyone knows the Scions have spent way more time studying esoteric subjects then they have. Anyone else who might have a better understanding of things is back in Sharlayan and doesn't want to insert themselves into making history. Which the game has said time and time again isn't right. The last thing FFXIV has ever treated as a good thing is passivity. I highly doubt it's going to start treating it as a good thing now.

And while the Warrior of Light is powerful, it's highly implied that previous Warriors of Light were even more powerful then they were... And even they couldn't prevent a Calamity! We've seen a good amount of evidence that the overall power of the Warriors of Light has decreased over the eras instead of increased. If anything, I keep thinking the WoL and the Scions will have be doing more rather then less to make up for the power loss over the eras.

@Cybylt

That's my opinion of Varis as well. We also need to bear in mind that Garlemald's view of the world beyond its borders has been shaped by two important factors. The first being that their ancestors were forced out of fertile lands and into a wasteland. The second is Ascian manipulation encouraging them to distrust the 'savages'. That makes it exceptionally easy for the Ascians to get the result that they desire if the 'savages' start sowing the seeds of chaos within Garlemald themselves. For there to be peace with Garlemald the attitudes of all involved needs to shift.

@ObsidianFire:

Arbert believed his cause to be just when he was working to defeat the Ascians. It turned out to be false, as it condemned his home, himself and his comrades to ruin. In his own words, he did everything he was told to do and it wasn't enough. I suspect a similar predicament awaits the Scions and Eorzean Alliance - that the route that they think is the best one to take will lead only to the 'sorrow' that the mysterious voice mentions.

As far as hubris is concerned, there's a stacking number of elements. I'll go into more depth later since I'm about to head to bed but I'm also referring to minor things.
As an example, Hingashi was kind enough to open up Kugane to the outside world - something it isn't obligated to do - and yet there's Eorzeans scheming to establish the Isle of Val as a way to evade Kugane's trade tariffs. Despite their supposed aversion to 'imperialistic' moves they seem awfully fond of such things when it's convenient for them.

Obviously everything is speculation at this point, but the track record so far has been that things are far from simple. I don't see that changing anytime soon - and although Garlemald is in for some cold, hard truths in regards to their actions and behaviour the same is due for the Eorzean Alliance. Especially now that its influence on the world stage is increasing. Again, due to things such as their scheming against Hingashi. There's a certain irony in the fact that Eorzea itself is prone to echoing some of the things it criticises its enemies for.

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Originally Posted by Theodric

As an example, Hingashi was kind enough to open up Kugane to the outside world - something it isn't obligated to do - and yet there's Eorzeans scheming to establish the Isle of Val as a way to evade Kugane's trade tariffs. Despite their supposed aversion to 'imperialistic' moves they seem awfully fond of such things when it's convenient for them.

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Is that Eorzea's doing though? As far as I was aware, that's the work of Rowena and the East Aldenard Trading Company. Neither of them exactly being the altruistic working-for-the-greater-good sort, and certainly not the same thing as the Eorzean Alliance trying to set up a trading post like that.

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Originally Posted by Iscah

Is that Eorzea's doing though? As far as I was aware, that's the work of Rowena and the East Aldenard Trading Company. Neither of them exactly being the altruistic working-for-the-greater-good sort, and certainly not the same thing as the Eorzean Alliance trying to set up a trading post like that.

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Well, they're prominent Eorzean organisations.

Furthermore, it's an example of what I refer to whenever I point out that the Warrior of Light's power is not always used for noble ends. The mystery surrounding the Isle of Val needs to be resolved, there's no doubt about that - but Hingashi does not deserve to be weakened. It's not an enemy. It's supposedly more of an ally.

I'm personally hoping that the Isle of Val will end up in a stalemate that prevents it from being exploited. Perhaps it will be far too dangerous to use as a trade hub even after whatever is sealed there is defeated or bound anew.

Are you kidding? This is the East Aldenard Trading Company we're talking about. You know... the trading company that was trying to bargain with Garlemald back in 1.0? The trading company that is already getting around Kugane's tariffs by dealing directly with the Confederacy? The company that blatantly says it could care less about the Sultana dying if it was good for business? An uninhabited island pops up in the Glass Ocean that no one's claimed yet? Yeah they're going to go for it.

And then there's Rowena who basically runs her own trading empire out of Mor Dhona... No matter how sketchy some of stuff she does is, everyone agrees her business sense is second-to-none and her products are legit. She will provide what people pay her for.

Like it or not, the Eorzean Alliance doesn't have a lot of control over the "frontier" parts of Aldenard. Mor Dhona is almost treated like it's own city-state (run by Rowena) as is Iddlyshire. And the Alliance has been shown to not have a lot of control over what it's larger Companies do either. It's not like Rowena or the EATC took over an island that belonged to Hingashi previously.

On the other side, this is Hingashi. They've all but let the Confederacy take charge of all the shipping in the Ruby Sea for as long as everyone can remember. Rowena and EATC are basically functioning like the Confederacy is, only instead of being between Hingashi and Doma, they're between Hingashi and Eorzea.