I think fewer than ten.
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It's certainly possible that Red Magic could be based on Sharlayan study, but it always felt, to me, that Sharlayan's were far more scholarly in magic study and probably wouldn't be the type to employ the same tactics as red mages.
That and... so much already seems to originate from Sharlayan study as is (Astrologian, notwithstanding), or that many current NPCs utilize Sharlayan practice of magic.
Equipment Thoughts
With so much talk about equipment, I went ahead and looked into legacy red mage equipment. While history has shown that red mages have been able to equip some of the strongest armor defense-wise (compatible with warriors of the past), I suspect that FF14's red mage may very well end up with DoW ranged gear classification. Meaning they would end up sharing some similar gear types as machinists and bards do.
The reason is simply because the current ranged group is shared only by two other jobs, red mage is classified as ranged DPS, and it seems the easist place for him to fit. All other classifications are still possible, but I feel like that SE might want to avoid bloating the equipment types any further given how many jobs will be in the expansion.
I tend to agree with this. I mean ninja shares right side gear with brd/mch, so it makes sense to have rdm share with blm/smn, at least right side wise. I kind of feel rdm may have its own gear though, similar to ninja and how it's similar but separate from brd/mch.
Well, that would be because Sharlayan is -the- magical nation on the planet at this point in time (that we are aware of). That isn't to say other nations don't have their own mages or various magical studies, but it seems that Sharlayan takes these fields, and brings them home as well, to study and learn and teach.
While Sharlayan is certainly a scholarly nation of mages, it is -still- a nation and would still require a force to protect itself. You can't just throw a bunch of WHM/BLM/SMN/SCH at an invading army, can you? You need someone capable of engaging the enemy at melee range as well. That's certainly not the highlight of the Red Mage job, but it is still a component nonetheless. The idea that Red Mages were conceptualized and brought into existence in Sharlayan as a means of protecting the Homeland seems fairly logical.
Might not be the case, of course, we'll have to wait and see, but there is some logic to it.
Of course, obviously.
Red Mage History
The red mage is one of the oldest and more iconic jobs in FF history. Though it's iconic look today identifies it as itself, this wasn't always the case. The original red mage design, and its gameplay were more akin to the DnD Bard and its art, based on that of a wandering minstrel or adventurer. Only in more recent incarnations has the red mage been given the designator as a warlock or fencer. Even then, these titles didn't appear until late in the series.
FF5 is the first game where the role of the red mage was expanded upon (because simply casting low to mid level magic wasn't enough) and given more specialization. The Dual Cast ability made its first appearance here and has since become the iconic red mage ability where applicable. In the Final Fantasy Tactics Advance games, Dual Cast or Double Cast abilities were among some of the strongest abilities worth learning, and through these games red mages became somewhat synomous with fencing weapons. In FF11, the red mage was a core starting job that balanced everything in equal measure, but more or less excelled in debuffs and support magic. Though red mages here could also utilize spells that were once Mystic Knight or Spell Fencer abilities, this wasn't a major focus for the RDM. Obviously, the red mage in FF11 used a number of fencing weapons, but weren't excluded from many other swords or weapons.
Finally, as the FF series saw more sequels and the red mage began to appear in more games, the job started moving away from generalized role and moved into a more specialized role. This also meant that the job that once had the ability to wield some of same weapons and heavy armor as warriors, became more focused towards spellcasting and lighter and more specialized equipment. While the job may have once been considered a jack-of-all-trades and master-of-none, that's not really true of the modern interpretations. That also holds true for FF14's red mage. Beyond its iconic look, don't expect the job to come packing too much of its legacy, and instead look foward to what a modern FF14-style red mage could bring to its legacy. It may not be able to heal, but it certainly could bring new inspiration for the future of the job in later sequels.
of all that you said id only slightly disagree with the FF version, but I agree with your entire rest of the argument that it doesnt matter, For one I have to put my foot in my mouth, SE finally did it, put RDM the classic line up is out, I am ok now with whatever weird jobs they want to toss at us. I figured RDM would be lore centric into being able to utilize both conjury and thaumaturgy but in a different way once, like thm was the use of altering energies to an elemental form where conjury was able to utilize elemental energy to form, and a red mage might be able to alter elemental energies into a desired effect or form by working with both concepts, possibly as constibles after the war of magi for refugees in both mhach and amdapori that came to the conclusion that neither were so righteous as to not pretty much cause calamity to the world. But even then Icant wait to see what iteration of this job they give us. the trailer looked awesome, and didnt show us all the skills