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We assume that all 6 cards have an equal chance of being drawn (because they do, or SE is seriously messing with us, like epic trololololololol to no end...).
So balance and arrow can each be drawn twice per minute, so there's a 1 in 3 chance of drawing a card that will increase damage output on one DPS by 10% for 15 seconds, twice per minute (and yes, I'm being kind in saying that Arrow is a flat DPS buff, but let's just assume it is for the sake of argument, even though it likely isn't).
So 10%/3 = 3.3% damage increase, divided by 2 because it can only ever be up for 30 seconds of every minute, and multiplied by 2 because you can draw twice per minute = 3.3% damage increase per minute on a single DPS, and this number gets WORSE for every 30 seconds you're holding onto the precious expanded RR +Arrow/Balance combo because you're not drawing.
Compare that to Selene's buff: 3% damage AND healing speed increase, divided by 2 since it's only every 30 seconds = 1.5%, times 8 as it hits the whole party = 12% DPS AND healing increase.
The only comparison AST even has is an expanded RR Arrow, which has an even worse chance of happening and my head hurts too much to calculate it out right now.
Even if Selene didn't exist for comparison, an average of 3.3% DPS increase from a single DPS isn't worth losing out on reliable emergency heals and all of the other tools that WHM and SCH bring to a party.
That's why AST needs a serious buff: sure, you're going to have good and bad streaks, but overall, the average benefit is terrible, especially when considering all of the emergency tools AST doesn't bring to a party that the other healers do.
I love the HELL out of AST's playstyle. I love how skilled managing can push to get the most out of the class, but the sad truth is that squeezing every last drop of buff and utility out of AST STILL doesn't make it worth bringing over the other healers.
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You might want to add "in-fight" in there, just to avoid the waiting game of giving everyone balance at the start of a fight. I already hated that with 8xStoneskin, imagine 8xBalance O_O
Ah yeah, fixed it to be a minute duration only.