What is wrong with reclaim?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by scarebearz

The truth is none of us actually know if reclaim is "working as intended" i.e. actually a 90% chance.

It's fine to say that a small sample is poinless, as it is, but where is the large sample to prove it is indeed 90% as stated on the tooltip.

I would say I probably have used reclaim 100 times over the last 2 years. That's like once a week on average.

From my experiance the % is likely to be more than 70%, but I'm not convinced it's actually 90% as stated.


Anyone care to test reclaim 100 times? :P

---

I tested this a long time ago because i was confused how rng worked, not just for skills but for desynth drops as well. Reclaim, byregot's and hasty touch under SH II, each with a sample size of 250 on junk (Maple Sugar). They average out to 90%, 90% and 80%. Reclaim was the only pain to test, you can test BB multiple times in a single synth, same with hasty.

I also tested materia melding % to realize that it works under same principle as skills and desynth drops. Which is also why you can go on a rng mess and fail 100+ in a row without a meld. It all breaks even.

The biggest confusion is that people thing 90% refers to a probability, it doesn't. It refers to an average. For those that know discrete math, the average in this case would be the expected value.

Reclaim works great. All the RNG complaining is due to each individual's small sample size. If you manually tracked every action you took in game where you knew what the odds were, you'd find the RNG is spot on over long periods of time.

I've personally tracked (since I used to be an RNG whiner) my meld chances over what is now 1000s of meld attempts as well as harvesting odds for the supra/lucis/etc tools. I'm happy with the RNG. It works. It can be streaky when looking at short periods of time.

Maybe the solution is a kind of "destreaking algorithm"?

In another thread someone brought up the "Pseudo-Random Distribution" from another game, dont remember the game.
The idea was that the initial % chance is lower, but every time you fail your % chance goes up until you succeed, at which point it resets.

So lets say we do that here, maybe like this.

HT w/ SH2, 70% base chance. Each time you fail, your % chance goes up by 15%. So the maximum # of consecutive failures you could have is 2. 70% -> 85% -> 100%. Though TBH this would put HT 2/ SH2's effective success rate over time at 85%. :o

But that is the general idea, slightly reduce the initial success rate and add a failure bonus such that the maximum number of consecutive failures you can have for a given skill is 2.

Or make it a trait acquired at 50 called "Focused".

Focused: Every time you fail an action, add 1 stack of Focused. Each stack of Focused increases the success rate of all action of 10% (maybe 5%). Successfully completing an action removes all stacks of Focused.

Maybe make it 10% and have it cost 5 CP per use, so it would effectively increase the cost of all actions by 5, but not the cost of buffs.

We don't need any fixes for it.. You can counteract the streak of bad RNG by just crafting more.

You wouldn't believe how many people don't jump in a market for RNG based items (demimateria for example) because their perceived raw cost of the item is much higher than its real value.

For example:
Having desynthed more than 10000 bridesmaid's sandals, I know that average is about 18% FC3, 3% Clear, 5% Hippo Leather, then rest Spruce Lumber.

Which would put the raw cost of FC3 (considering everything else to be worth 0) is around 35k. Yet, I see so many people claim that FC3 costs 40k, 50k, even 60k to make. If these people are not willing to put in the work to extrapolate more accurate figures, let them stay in the dark, let them be their own worst enemy to Market board successes.

Same with crafting RNG, do I fail to hq 3/4stars? Of course I do, but I know with enough reliability how often I nq them, and what kind of money I'd lose on an nq. Thus, I know how to price my items accordingly to account for the inevitable losses I'll endure.


If some people don't want to figure it out the hard way, there are always third party sources, google, etc. They're not the most accurate but that's what you get for not putting in your own work. If you want the edge, put in your time and figure it out. Bad RNG? Craft 100 times, figure out your losses. Having to reclaim too often? Come up with a better rotation, you shouldn't need to reclaim that often anyway.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GenJoe

We don't need any fixes for it.. You can counteract the streak of bad RNG by just crafting more.

Having to reclaim too often? Come up with a better rotation, you shouldn't need to reclaim that often anyway.

---

Agreed. The profits you earn from your HQ items should far exceed your losses from NQs or failed reclaims.

I've also found that if you're starting with HQ materials, the chances of an NQ result are really remote. The trick is to find a reliable method of crafting 4 star materials starting from 0 quality, without the use of reclaim. Fortunately, it's not hard to get an HQ yield of at least 80% on those (90%+ if you can optimize your method) and if you can manage that, the finished products are a breeze.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GenJoe

Which would put the raw cost of FC3 (considering everything else to be worth 0) is around 35k.
Come up with a better rotation, you shouldn't need to reclaim that often anyway.

---

On the server I am on, FC3 goes for.... 35k. As desynthing is one big dice roll... why bother?

shouldn't need to reclaim often? But we've just been told over and over unless we reclaim often, our experiences are meaningless.

I've found reclaim to work as expected. I very rarely use it though. In fact, I don't think I've had it fail on me before, but my personal sample size would be small and I'm more likely to take chances on a low~ish quality % than risk losing everything for most crafts.

Mostly these threads crop up from confirmation bias. Many claim to have never seen anything favorable happen when the odds are low, but I think most people just ignore it or feel relief instead of excitement. I've personally managed to meld a fifth piece of materia (7%~ish) on the first try twice. I've had several others that went on for dozens and dozens of materia as well of course, but I do try to take note of all the long odds that turn out in my favor.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by XiXiQ

On the server I am on, FC3 goes for.... 35k. As desynthing is one big dice roll... why bother?

---

That's the thing, because a lot of people think that desynthing is one big RNG to tackle, many don't enter the market.

I started seling FC3 when it was 100k until it went down to 50k.. that was over a more than a month long period, made some decent money there..

The reason it's reaching equilibrium at 35k just proves my point, its raw cost is 35k and there's very little demand now, it's the same on Jenova, it sits around 35k now, the ship has sailed. People are just selling it at break-even point.. Truth be told though, since that doesn't count the price of lumber, clear materia and hippo leather, if you sell those things, it's pure profit. But because people don't have the exact figures, they're afraid to enter the market.

You can desynth about 1000 sandals over 2-3 hours (6m), break even with the FC3s, then sell the rest of the items for profit.. You'll still end up with over a million gil in profit.

Same deal with mastercraft and battlecraft IIIs, prices sure have dropped but there's still profit to be had there, this is the one area where veteran crafters won't re-enter the market because it is so time consuming and inefficient, many don't consider it worth while but if you're new, every little bit helps.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kenji1134

9 80% HT's? 7 exploded.
Goods to replenish CP? Nah you're good bro!
Absolutely horrible synth demanding Reclaim? Nope that blows up too!!!

Or my personal favorite. Having to do 2 80% RS at the start of the synth... boom, Boom... Reclaim... BOOM!!!! - on an expensive synths that is "put fist through monitor" rage inducing.

---

I'm still wishing we could get an achievement for Hasty Touch blowing up 8 times in a row with Steady Hand II active or even blowing up 10 HT's in 1 synth sitting with SH2 up. I'd have that achievement in a heartbeat. Just would be nice to have an achievement, don't care what it is. Call it "You Tried" and our title is a star icon. Or give us the title "the Forsaken" or something to show that we didn't have RNGesus's blessing. I'm sure everyone will have it when they start on their Master 2 books. Least it will be something to look forward too while throwing gil into the fire.

First of all, selective perception is real, I mean really real. Unless you've got real statistical data and analysis, your whining over a particular string of fails means next to nothing in regards to the actual rate of the ability.

Second, the RNG in this game really does seem weird. Statistically it is correct (meaning out of 1000 Reclaims, 900 of them will work) but this game tends to give you periods of consecutive successes and periods of consecutive fails, which further fuels the selective perception that you are failing more than the tool-tip suggests.

For example, Hasty Touch is 80% when buffed but I have had periods where I go for god knows how long without any fail. Of course, selective perception will make these "lucky" streaks go without notice by most people. When you get unlucky streaks though, you not only notice, you rage.