It woul explain why the questgivers for the Mhach raids are unrelated to the Scions at all...and yet The Ironworks are involved with the Alexander quest which is less likely to be tied into the MSQ espite the implications
I can only assume the reason why Cid, Biggs, and Wedge are in Alex storyline is to provide a reason why they do not reappear in the Main Scenario for 3.X. It was the same for 2.X where they were too occupied with CT to get invovled with 2.X Main Scenario.
However, CT was also a means for Nero to develop in his character from getting over his inferiority complex over Cid and turning himself into someone who can find his own path in life feeling while explain what happened to him after 2.0.
But then they talked to you in 3.0 like they outright hadn't seen you since the Praetorium, so if that was the story's purpose, it failed. Not to mention Nero's "development" was more like a switch getting flipped offscreen, but that's another matter entirely...
And then his newly developed character disappeared into the aether, never to be seen again... A shame, I actually like him more than Cid at this point, though I was never too fond of Cid to begin with... Cid is pretty much just a piece of desu ex machina at this point, Nero is at least a character with a fairly understandable backstory and believable motives... Cids entire character arc pretty much got summed up in one Echo cutscene, then Gaius touches on it for like one sentence in Praetorium and we're done... He stopped being a character and became Mr. FixIt... His entire character at this point can be summed up by "Damned Allagans!", his history with Garlemald apparently doesn't matter at all to Garlemald or to him...
Citation? Most I recall was some light teasing in a Live Letter, and I'd hardly call that confirmation...
Even then, a return means nothing out of context... He could show up in one cutscene and that's technically him returning, but I'd be incredibly disappointed with that...
I don't want Nero to return if he's just going to be another bland defector. If we see more Garlean focus we really need someone like Gabranth or Drace from FFXII who is loyal to their people and homeland first and foremost but willing to act against the more corrupt individuals threatening both those things. Personally I never really liked Nero - his 'rivalry' with Cid felt bizarre and he came across as rather whiny. Of course I don't particularly like Cid either - since he seems to exist largely to just make Garlemald and Allagan opponents feel like less of a threat due to his habit of showing up with the perfect solution that prevents any meaningful lasting damage from being inflicted upon the main cast.
Though I'm holding out hope that Nero will be presented as morally complex.
I doubt Nero will defect but maybe serve as a character that introduce a new Faction within the Garlean Empire that seeks not to repeat the Allagan's mistakes. Once We reach Garlean Empire Expansion, which is hinted to be 5.0, we will certainly need a new leader that focus on changing the Garlean Empire so it becomes a ally once the 5.0/5.X story is over. Yet also not drastically change the Garlean Empire just because they lost the War.
From what i've seen in Garlean NPCs there are 2 types of Garleans, those that are loyal to the Empire itself and those who are loyal only to the Emperor of that Empire.
I have this feeling there may be a Faction within the Garlean Government that seeks to change the Empire's ideal of becoming the next Allagan so it does not repeat the same mistakes the Allagan Empire did and shift it towards diplomatic peace instead of conquest in order to Protect the Empire from itself.
Nero can serve as the NPC who introduce us to that Garlean Leader NPC. With events of the CT influencing part of his reason why he would support this Garlean Faction and their Leader in moving away from becoming the next Allagan Empire.
I got it!
Nero will be our General Leo. He will find some way to regain the Emperor's favor, but eventually be forced to fight us and Cid but our friendlier relationship, combined with his epiphany that outshining Cid isn't a path worth pursuing, as well as knowing the dangers of toying with Allagan shit, will get him to defect despite (or perhaps because of) his loyalty to the Garlean people.
Regula, on the other hand, will be our Kefka. He's already starting to show some signs of mental breakdown after our duel in the ARF - a little magitek mishap (possibly with the Triad) will push him over the edge, and he'll kick off a war with the Alliance leading us into Ala Mhigo. When we're not dealing with the WoDs we'll be dealing with the Garlean forces led by him. He'll eventually kill Varis and try to kick off a Calamity in 4.x we have to stop (if we can). I'm waiting for the awesome remix of Dancing Mad! (Can they top the Black Mages' mix? Not sure...)
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Handlers...0107&type=card
It's way less creepy than the other printing... if you know what you're looking at...
Crackpot theory out of the way... Cid & co. do appear in the 3.0 MSQ. Cid first shows up to save you, Haurchefant, Emmanellain, and I think Honoroit when Emm gets kidnapped by the Vanu and you mount a rescue mission only to run into Bismarck at the worst possible moment. Cid explains he's there helping to maintain Ishgard's giant airship that's docked in the Sea of Clouds. Later Biggs and Wedge make the Manacutters you use to ride into the Aery. Aside from saving you from him the first time, Cid is instrumental in taking down Bismarck; he tugs an island behind the Enterprise you use as bait and provides you with the shield to blunt Bismarck's attacks. He also builds, installs, and uses the aetheric ram we use to get through Azys Lla's shield.
Crackpot hypothesis aside...
Perhaps. Perhaps not.
All things considered, if you've played 3.x you are more than likely going to have done at least the HM (Story) Warring Triad battles. As with 2.x, there may also be a lockout, but given how much time they're going to need to finish 4.0... there's really no excuse.
On the other hand, it was stated long ago that 4.0 won't require finishing 3.x to get into and a digest mode will be included so you can get up to date on the story.
My personal guess on the matter is that, if you started playing while 3.x was current, you'll probably need to finish the Warring Triad series since it's heavy with Garlean involvement and barring something unforeseen they're being set up as the 4.0 antagonists along with the WoDs. I'd count on the Warring Triad being necessary to do 4.0 without "digest mode," while doing the Triad quests and 3.5 before 4.0 hits will grant you a special emote or brand like Legacy storyline characters have. ... but that's just a guess.
thats the point, it happened with the HM primals, why wouldnt happen again?
for every players playing 3.0
but for the ones that havent reahced yet have that posibility of "skip"
But yea, it could be the case there is no lock. with is seems the most possible one to happen.