Is there a Mr. Happy guide to weekly lottery?

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Originally Posted by RyuRoots

Try working customer service for pretty much anyone and you'll rescind that opinion. There are pleeeeenty of stupid asked questions, in any community.

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They are only stupid to you because you know the answer and think it's simple, but the person asking does not know hence why they asked in the first place. I do deal with customers in my line of work and I will happily answer any and all questions, their life and others may depend on it.

Whoever said there's no such thing as a stupid question... was an idiot.

If you win 3rd prize on the jumbo Cactpot once every 2 years, you are par for the course.
Average player with average luck will have the Honest Gillionaire title YEARS before High Roller.

They're all teasing you because the answer to this question is the same answer to the real world lottery; there isn't one.

This is pure luck. Using the same numbers every time might give you a small increase in chances (.x% or lower) but beyond that? Just keep playing. Or don't. The bit of math up above with the 10,000 possibilities goes a little bit into the chances of winning, but it's even slimmer than that. It is highly unlikely you will win.

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Originally Posted by Caraway

Using the same numbers every time might give you a small increase in chances (.x% or lower)

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Not in the slightest. A random number doesn't care what you did last time.

There are 10,000 possibilities.

1 of them (0.01%) will win you 1st prize.
9 of them (0.09%) will win you 2nd prize.
90 of them (0.9%) will win you 3rd prize.
900 of them (9%) will win you 4th prize.
9000 of them (90%) will win you a consolation prize.

Those are your chances every time, no matter what number you pick.

Whether it's the same or different from any other numbers you've picked previous weeks is irrelevant. Whether it's the same or different from numbers that have won previous weeks is irrelevant. Also, a number like "0000" has exactly the same chances as a more random looking number like "3728". Because random numbers don't care about any of that. They'll always give the chances listed above.

Also, if you want to know whether the Cactpot ticket is worth buying, the formula is:
(A * 0.01%) + (B * 0.09%) + (C * 0.9%) + (D * 9%) + (E * 90%)
where A=amount of 1st prize, B=amount of 2nd prize, C=amount of 3rd prize, D=amount of 4th prize, E=amount of the consolation prize.

That will give you the average value of a ticket. If it's more than the 100 MGP it costs to buy one, then it's a worthwhile purchase. (It'll typically be closer to 500, but the exact value will vary according to what bonuses get added that week, so check the prize amounts after all the bonuses are added to them.)

There's a 1 in 10,000 chance of winning 1st.
There's a 1 in 1,000 chance of winning 2nd.
There's a 1 in 100 chance of winning 3rd.
There's a 1 in 10 chance of winning 4th.
Then there's the consolation bonus.

On my server, 1st prize was 1,118,880 for an expected value of 111.888
2nd prize was 105,849 for an expected value of 105.849
3rd prize was 11,592 for an expected value of 115.92
4th prize was 1,159 for an expected value of 115.9
And of course the consolation's expected value was 63.
Adding this up and the total expected value of the cactpot is 512.557.
Minus the cost of the ticket and you get 412.557.

So you should always play the jumbo cactpot and trust that it will pay off in the long run. However, +400 MGP per week is rather unexciting. I'd love it if they buff MGP gains in 3.0. Maybe have a daily jumbo and every 6 hour mini, or something like that. Sure would make the achievements and more expensive items (Cloud, Fenrir) more reasonable. :)

Edit: I forgot you don't always get the consolation prize LOL (it just seems that way). It doesn't throw the math off by very much though (I think it's -7 MGP from what I said originally).

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Originally Posted by randysquirrel

yes there are.
firstly you should always pick a prime number as your first number, and your second number should be a multiple of 3.
Third is always 6.
Your last number should be the minute displayed on the clock when you buy your ticket.

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I'm glad Square-Enix keeps giving us familiar FFXI mechanics for pure RNG events so we know how to properly hedge our bets. I only have one question: is the Minute for the last digit Local Time, Server Time, or Eorzean Time?
Also, keep this on the down low but I've heard from certain sources that speaking to the broker while in first person view will increase your chances of winning by the same amount as popping sprint before talking to said broker.



(In case anyone is dense enough to be fooled, yes I am joking. The second sentence isn't wrong though, as sprinting before talking to the broker would add nothing to your chances of winning.)

What if the next Atma grind was tied to at least getting one number on the Jumbo Cactpot?

Anyway, I do have some helpful advice for at least the mini-cactpot. You should always be shooting to get a 1,2,3 line-up since about 10% of them have the potential to pay out 10,000 GP, and it's extremely easy to at least break even on the ones that don't.

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Originally Posted by randysquirrel

yes there are.
firstly you should always pick a prime number as your first number, and your second number should be a multiple of 3.
Third is always 6.
Your last number should be the minute displayed on the clock when you buy your ticket.

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lolol ooooh thats the secret :p