I agree with your end result from a different direction. Putting aside everything possibly caused by the Calamity itself, neither us nor the Scions make it to Tural for the rite; that reasonably means that Wuk Lamat and Koana aren't getting the help they want and need, so the rite itself looks completely different, and very possibly ends in Gulool just deciding nobody gets to be the next Dawnservant. It kind of all hinges on if this iteration of the rite ends in Zoraal Ja going rogue in the same way; if he doesn't, then surely Alexandria never gets the key in the first place.
