"Too many people are attempting to log on. Please be patient! Your place in line: x" seems like something people would be able to both understand and also something that wouldnt be too long to read.
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This. The Raubahn Ex debacle was a combination of 3 things:
1) A mandatory instanced solo fight early in the MSQ (Raubahn)
2) Introducing TWO extremely popular jobs (SAM and RDM) in the same expansion that also used instanced solo fights in their story quests
3) A second mandatory instanced solo fight not much farther into the MSQ (Pipin Ex).
In the above examples, SE literally made the worst decisions they possibly could have by bottle necking players.
Even YoshiP addressed the design issue literally after Stormblood early access, that's why the OP scare tactics are so far off the cliff.
Solo instances require an instance server, it doesn't matter that you are logged into Balmung. The fight took place on another server that's requested when you queue up for those things that require you to queue a party or drop everyone and solo. So you have a solo bottleneck if people are slow or have to repeat it, and you know that happened as well.
With SHb your first instances were dungeons early on for the story, since you can always get a a light party moving through the paces quicker. Plus we got trusts so no one really had to wait to do a dungeon, ever. That was a huge leap forward.
Now you don't even need to wait to do a new expert story dungeon anymore too, because of trusts.
Oh look its Dani, doing a Dani thingy :D
Rauban Extreme was caused by full instance servers and the issue that solo instanced content did abort completely, when instance servers were full.
Somewhere before Shadowbringers they silently added a queue system for solo instance content, which solves the issue we had with Rauban in 4.0.