Maybe 150k if they can get Player Companies, Jobs, more raids, classes balanced, and Ishgard out by then.
Predict the population 6 months after PS3 release
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08-01-2011, 07:20 AMSuzakuCMX
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08-01-2011, 07:36 AMAlzeliaHorizontal character developmentQuote:
Originally Posted by XxOstiaxX
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08-01-2011, 09:46 AMPicoman
Hmm... 500k from Chinese servers, 250k for JP PS3, 250k from RoW PS3?
(+30k current users... lol) -
08-01-2011, 12:34 PMRydinQuote:
Originally Posted by Delsus
1. At that time (FFXI launch) MMO's were still pretty niche and nerdy... Everquest players were still considered basement nerds... Today that is far from the case. From WoW to farmville, people have accepted online gaming as a viable gaming genre
2. FFXI required additional hardware... I can't think of any of my friends that had the PS2 hard drive.... the PS3 comes standard with one
3. XBox live, playstation network, netflix and gamefly have gotten people more accustomed to paying for online services... a lot more than they were 8 years ago
4. I don't think it is crazy to think that 1/6th of the people that bought FFXIII will try FFXIV.... 1 out of every 6.... that is definitely not a stretch
5. There is no MMORPG on PS3 other than DCUO....
6. WoW did 12 million with no Japanese players....
7. Monster hunter is HUGE in japan.... Japanese players want this... very badly, they want this game to succeed
8. People love a good train wreck... people will drop the money on the game just to see what all the fuss is about... I'm not saying they'll stay after the free month... but they'll get it
Need I go on?
Edit: Lawyered! -
08-01-2011, 01:03 PMMisha
150-200k... people are stubborn about bad mmo launches (especially in NA)... even with core features redone and tons of changes/additions most people will never really care that much to come back or try it out. Will probably be enough life to keep it up and running though. People will listen to what people say about the game and not form their own opinion, and most critics won't care or be anything but biased with the game over on our shores. So definitely going for low count (Also add in new mmo's shifting even more players away)
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08-01-2011, 01:03 PMDyne
SE was probably so ashamed of FFXIV that they didn't even show it in E3 2011. They might get a few PS3 players when it gets released, but there are so many games coming out from September to December that looks just glorious. So I say they might sell 500k copies, then maintain a little less than 100k subscribers. Then, there are also the pc players that are moving to Tera, Star Wars: The Old Republic, and Guild Wars 2, so I can see 50-70k for pc and ps3 players combined.
I'm just hoping the reaction to ps3 release isn't like pc release: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGHEhKo5Ils -
08-01-2011, 01:12 PMVictor
I'm also of the opinion that this game may never end up actually being released for the PS3. Of course I'm not saying it won't, but as things have stood for quite some time it seems very unlikely. You can say things like, "Well, SE is always mentioning that they're working on it and it's still on track yadda yadda", but could you imagine what a negative and definitive result saying anything otherwise would have on the game? They're better off lying to us for the time being if that's what it takes. Of course once again, I'm not suggesting that I believe any of this is absolutely true... But it is a concerning possibility.
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08-01-2011, 01:45 PMJynxQuote:
Originally Posted by Victor
Without the press surrounding the PS3 release this game is flat out doomed to failure, SE knows the PS3 launch is their last chance to garner interest in the game.
They would be borderline braindead if they decided to drop the PS3 version. -
08-01-2011, 02:18 PMHikozaemon
If SE continues to do business w/ CLICK N BUY they will have no player base. This company is nearly defunct. It cant keep peoples information secure and most likely sells peoples personal information to other 3rd party spam mail/ telemarketing groups.
DOES ANYONE HERE THINK ITS OK THAT Click N Buy REQUIRES PHOTO COPIES OF PERSONAL INFO AND BANK STATEMENTS TO BE FAXED TO THEM????? This is absurdly shady and intrusive and in some countries maybe illegal. I'd like to know what country/area/state/province is processing my info from this craphole of a company before i even considerd paying to play it. -
08-01-2011, 02:27 PMRaze
ok if the game were to turn into a "hit" my prediction would be:
Age 10-15: 30k
Age 15-21: 35k
Age 21-28: 25k
Age 28-45: ~7k
Age 45-65: ~2k
Age 65+: Meowy Wowie from Fabul server -
08-01-2011, 02:28 PMDreadnought
i wonder how the market wards are gonna be functioning and how user friendly/convienient they are 6 months after PS3 release.
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08-01-2011, 02:28 PMkukurumei
They may sell quite a bit(better then turd) with the FF name, but that's optimistic given the PC early warning.
It'll drop sharply though unless they have a bigger developer staff then they do now. The current pace is not acceptable in the world of AAA MMOs. The competition is just too stiff.
If they want to get ambitious with the predictions they need more resources on top of talent. -
08-01-2011, 02:41 PMMeowyWowieSays the old man >.>Quote:
Originally Posted by Raze
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08-01-2011, 02:45 PMRazeStay off my lawn! Next time that ball comes over my fence I'm keeping it!Quote:
Originally Posted by MeowyWowie
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08-01-2011, 03:01 PMRydinHow funny is that... hahaha... thank youQuote:
Originally Posted by Raze
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08-01-2011, 03:19 PMCatapult
The volume of subscriptions will depend largely on a working and trustworthy billing system.
If players cannot trust the payment gateway, they will refuse to pay beyond the 30-day trial period. This means cleaning up the Click&Buy fiasco and looking at crysta becoming more widespread across regions and available to obtain in more game-relevant specific amounts.
If not, less than 25k subscribers. We'll watch the XI fallout on this topic in the interim. -
08-01-2011, 03:23 PMRabidSquirrelCalling it right now. I am 95% sure that by the time the PS3 version is released, there will be no more market wards. Retainers will be used merely for storage, providing they're not done away with completely if a Mog house is implemented. We will have central market system to buy and sell goods, all from a single menu. Whether or not it will be blind bidding is up in the air.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreadnought
My main thought of why an auction house type system has yet to be implemented is because of server issues. If they can't get a mailbox to work yet, they won't be able to get an auction house working. And if anyone honestly does not want a mailbox, speak up or forever hold your peace. (And you better have a really good reason why you don't want a mailbox.) -
08-01-2011, 03:42 PMRydin
Also we should note there is a difference between the number of people who buy the game and the number of people who become regular subscribers
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08-01-2011, 04:20 PMDrunk-Banditlol all this game has is leves.... 2 raid dungeons... Broken market system and graphics... & one delusional community that's it.... games like WoW & FFXI are light years ahead of this game....Quote:
Originally Posted by Alzelia
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08-01-2011, 04:35 PMRinsuiMe too... the graphics are way better than what you get in "average" MMO's, but it's just a matter of months until they lose their leading role. (Some games already are not so much worse, e.g. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mF5SZwFCcog ). And I see nothing in the core gameplay mechanics that is really groundbreakingly unique or innovative either.Quote:
Your point #6 intrigues me, what do you mean by, next gen MMO, whats in FFXIV that you cant find in wow/rift/eq2/lotor....
- Armoury system? What's the big difference to Rifts soul system?
- Battle system? Both TERA and Blade & Soul are quite a bit more advanced...
- Clan/Linkshell possibilities? It's not even possible to kick inactive members yet! And don't get me started on the lack of inter-Linkshell interaction! Or even the basic functionality of fast buying and selling your stuff in an auction house.
I trust that SE is theoretically able to pull off a miracle if they manage to get off their asses. I just doubt they will. -
08-01-2011, 04:59 PMXxOstiaxXBECAUSE THEY IS IN WOW!!! HOW DARES YOU SUGGEST WE USE SOMETHING IN WOW?!?!?Quote:
Originally Posted by RabidSquirrel
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08-01-2011, 05:06 PMviion
funny thread, soooo optimistic.
I bet no more than 5-10k from PS3 alone lol. -
08-01-2011, 07:15 PMVahzl
I imagine the population will triple, to around 73 active players.
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08-01-2011, 09:12 PMDelsusAccording to This site only 3 mmos have over 1 million subs, if everyone and thier mother wanted to play mmos now, then this would not be true. The fact is mmos still arent as popular as single player games because of the commitment you need to play them. Yes WoW got 12 million subscriptions but that is one game not the whole industry, WoW is probably about 1% of the gaming market.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rydin
Oh and yes the ps2 version required additional hardware, but you could fix that getting the PC version, which ran on buget laptops since the NA release of it. -
08-02-2011, 01:05 AMviion
Japan now have TERA lol so we'll see how much they "want" XIV to succeed over the coming 3 months.
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08-02-2011, 03:23 AMRydinI'm just saying, FFXI came out in an era where MMO's were not very mainstream.Quote:
Originally Posted by Delsus
But now, from Farmville to Monster Hunter to Second life... People are very into MMO's.
Also Final fantasy has a clear already present fanbase. Japanese players are hungry for a huge MMO.
Famitsu carries A TON of weight. A high Famitsu score and the game will do well, at least in Japan. As far as the west, if the game starts selling incredibly well in the east, westerners will jump on board. Not as heavily, mind you, but we definitely don't like being on the outside -
08-02-2011, 04:31 AMRenshiA bunch of people.Quote:
Originally Posted by TonyMontana
Wondering about this is a waste of time, so I'll go play some =)
Wait, why did I post this even? Ah yeah, because I was eating spaghetti.