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easily will go up but question is will it retain. Evolved system is interesting (having whole kit by lvl 50 sounds amazing though and far more enjoyable), New extreme (idk official name so that's what my group has started to called it) raid tier looks to be amazing idea, ilvl sync between all jobs as max level, weekly with a 1 week catchup if you are busy for that week, also though we don't know the detail new gear progression system. Honestly so far on paper it looks like a big success...now can they execute it?
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They will probably give it a try, but if they will stay is another question.
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People will return
But the question is how long they will return for and whether they can actually retain those players again... Like all of this is new... But like anything it really depends on how well it actually holds up over time..
Like it can be fun for the first 10 hours maybe... But how well is it going to hold up after 50 hours... 100 hours... 200 hours...
Some things I feel like it's playing a semantic game "Hey we're moving from a daily system to a weekly system" -- The existing system is ultimately already a weekly system, if you think about the fact that the tome cap is done weekly rather than daily, and dailies are just 1 of several ways to facilitate that.
I guess we'll have to see how the remaining fan fests are -- But the point still stands on how well is it going to play across several months.
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I think it may push some people away. Changing a playstyle after 12+ years in this way may not be appealing to older MMO players who like having a lot of buttons that they use in specific situations and don't really need the game to simplify everything further. I understand we are keeping Reborn mode but to me it seems obvious they will remove it at some point. Along with the decision to make it inferior, making adoption of Evolved to feel pushed.
I'm a White Mage player and I didn't find playing a healer challenging or needing any of their stated simplification.
I'm on the fence about weekly tasks and only needing one set of gear for the most part. I just got weekly tasks in ESO for their new battlepass and they are already grating if I get a bunch of choices for content I don't care about. People said they are like mogtomes and I already ignore those since it's just focused on stuff I don't feel like doing half the time.
Guess a big wait and see.
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Sure, of course it will bring players back (and likely bring new players in as well. There still always be the curious and there will always be the people who noped out of Dawntrail with the intention to return afterwards. And, frankly, in some (many?) cases it wouldn't even matter what Evercold did because there are a lot of people who say they hate the game now but won't really ever quit.
Now, whether those new/returning players stay and all of that will depend on exactly how well Evercold does things with everything it's changing. It might bring in new players and it might turn some old players away. We don't know that yet.
All that said, I do think they still need to consider some sort of new starting point or at least including a story/character skip package to be included with purchase of the game. I am 100% a story lover that feels everyone who plays should experience the entire storyline, but even I can't/won't deny that having literally hundreds of hours of game to get to just to see what's current or to play with your friends can be a bigger turn off than any question of quality level in the game.
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I love the game yet I can't recommend it to anyone because of how long the MSQ is and how skips are a band aide fix (the idea of skipping to play with friends and doing story in your own time is less than ideal because you're already spoiled on so many fronts). If they truly wanted new players they would have split the MSQ into a second arc and allowed new players to start there. If a player that loves this game can't recommend it, what difference do things like free trials extending, or improved gameplay truly make. It feels a little anecdotal. Not to say that my opinion is the end-all be-all but I'm definitely not alone in this.
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I don't think people are going to fall for Yoshida saying "next path bro" again.
It has to be "this patch bro"
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I only have one friend who has quit FFXIV for reasons that can be reasonably addressed, and Evolved Jobs immediately caught his attention, he plays on Steam Deck and he was feeling the pressure of a limited controller set up, which made the game unenjoyable, so he is guaranteed to be coming back next expansion, whether he will stay is another question, but he can be rather fickle as a person, so it is likely he will come and go even if the game is literally perfect for him.
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While NA fanfest had a fantastic showing for once, it'll still be an uphill battle getting long time players who quit to give the game another whirl. It's always much harder to get people who finally gave up or simply moved on back on the hype train enough to want to reinvest. So I suspect they'll take the wait and see approach and we may see numbers steadily climb if Evercold is a marked improvement rather than a huge inflex of players right at launch.
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I've already seen some positive interest from some people in terms of potentially rejoining the game. That said, I think it depends on how the expansion is when it releases, and how well it's received. We won't know until the expansion comes.