BLM was not niche prior to this patch, they were in a good spot last patch and easily tipped over by this one.
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It would depend on the curve, frankly. And *why* it was so much lower. You play a lot of BLM, right? I'm sure we'd both agree that the *why* is that BLM had a very high skill floor - arguably the highest. There's plenty of BLM mains in the top 100 in 6.11, and of course there's a ton now after the over-buffing because it's so easy to faceroll games now.
BLM was HORRIBLE before these buffs. BLM is fine now
BLM was quite good after 6.11. Giving Superflare the ability to ignore LOS was a major QOL and effectiveness boost for them. BLM is currently obviously overpowered - which is why you're seeing so many people in top 100 playing it non-stop, because if you're at least moderately competent at it, its power to carry games is absurd. I very regularly see (skilled) BLMs breaking 1 million damage dealt in 5-6 minute games, *far* ahead of just about everyone else. Particularly on Cloud Nine and Palaistra, where objects to LOS with are few and far between (seriously can we please just remove Cloud Nine until they fix it?)
Cast time reduction and the second Paradox charge are literal game-changers for BLM. Being able to pretty much immediately swap between Ice and Fire is a huge deal, and shorter cast times make them a lot less vulnerable to LOSing than they were before. Then you add in the Burst potency increase, the DR on the LB, the baseline potency increases... it's just way too much all at once.
BLM's biggest issue in 6.11 was that it was a very high skill floor class, relative to all other classes. If you were not a skilled player, you probably fed a lot and didn't get much done. Adding the extra Paradox and reducing cast times is a substantial shift towards lowering that skill floor. But the rest is too much.
If they want to retain the potency increases and other gewgaws BLM got, then they need to change Deep Freeze to be a bind effect, not a stun effect.