The coming Garlean invasion

The Eorzean Alliance and by extension, the Warrior of Light, will win because the plot demands that they win. The Garlean Empire's military strength doesn't matter, chances are everyone will become hilariously incompetent. Like all those soldiers shooting at Estinien and such other examples.

I don't see how that example suffices to make such a point. Estinien is a dragoon of exceptional skill and was facing regular soldiers - not necessarily incompetent ones. Going into the imperial mainland, you will not be fighting Zenos's largely listless forces but an army now fighting to defend their homeland, bolstered by the Ascians. If the writers were to veer into such a direction it'd be nothing but the Eorzean Alliance being carried by the WoL and the Scions. The city states have leaned an awful lot on the WoL so far to cover up their own incompetence and shortcomings. Before the Scions intervened, they were clumsy and prone to infighting and had very little chance of even dealing with some primals we now see as basic.

However, I do not think the hints in the plot are pointing to direct conflict with the Empire, and more than this, there are strong suggestions that to do so may entail great costs. So I don't think it's where SE are taking the story.

Even the subtler method Thancred proposed is fraught with risks.

What invasion? Only varis can give that order and hes had like 3 different occasions he could of and has not

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Originally Posted by Unazaki

Alright, 4.4 is out, and I think by now we've pretty much all seen the ending cutscenes in all its foreshadowing glory. The empire is likely mobilizing, and it seems that we're going to be faced with the full might of the empire by 5.0, which begs the question.........

HOW IN THE WORLD IS THE EORZEAN ALLIANCE GOING TO EVEN STAND A CHANCE???

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Meh, we don't stand a chance at all. They'll need just a three step program to victory and we'll all be pledging allegiance to His Radiance by sunset:

First, the Empire will build more Castrums and Praetoriums like this...

https://i.imgur.com/kyA1O7Q.jpg

Second, after establishing solid footholds and staging areas, they will initiate the first phase like so...

https://i.imgur.com/FISg34R.jpg

Lastly, they will come in with ground forces to wipe out any remaining oppositions...

https://i.imgur.com/a1kMTEV.png

At least as the WoL for Eorzea, the Emperor might seem it fit to grant you a Legatus title with a new legion... maybe.

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Originally Posted by Ramesses

Meh, we don't stand a chance at all. They'll need just a three step program to victory and we'll all be pledging allegiance to His Radiance by sunset:

First, the Empire will build more Castrums and Praetoriums like this...

https://i.imgur.com/kyA1O7Q.jpg

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You're forgetting that one of those kinds of forts was destroyed by the concentrated efforts of not just the WoL, but other Adventurers as well. Sure, the battles and planning leading up to that was quite complex and there was no small amount of uncertainty that it would succeed, but in the end, it did. Where are they going to build more forts in Eorzea? The ones that exist are woefully undersupplied and undermanned. They're basically suffering deep in enemy territory with no way out.

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Second, after establishing solid footholds and staging areas, they will initiate the first phase like so...

https://i.imgur.com/FISg34R.jpg

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When you have mages capable of hurtling down meteors onto airships, I don't really think those are quite as invincible as you're making them out to be. Also, for the record? Eorzea has Garlond Ironworks at their side, who not only know exactly how to fight the Empire, but provide a friendly source for magitek should an open war happen.

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Lastly, they will come in with ground forces to wipe out any remaining oppositions...

https://i.imgur.com/a1kMTEV.png

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That's assuming they somehow gain air superiority over the entire continent.

Let's pull back for a minute and assume that, for whatever weird reason, the Empire decides to throw all of the resources it can spare to Eorzea. And they end up winning with simple, brutal wave tactics. Well, congratulations, you've defeated the Eorzean Alliance's military.

Then you have to deal with actually governing Eorzeans. You know, the people that have suffered from the fallout of Garlean invasions and reckless actions over two decades and counting? The amount of resistance movements, Grand Company remnants, and level of unrest is going to turn Eorzea into a festering ulcer for the Empire to have any decent level of control over.

Good luck trying to root out Gridanians fighting an insurgency in the Black Shroud (combined with the Padjal, White Mages who have a direct hot line to the Elementals), Dravanian air raids, an entire nation of pissed off Ala Mhigans where martial might is a big part of their culture, and the hordes of Adventurers and Free Companies that is going to make the Empire expend far too much resources to keep their ground.

When people say that the Empire also has access to spellcasters, they're not wrong. But Eorzea's traditions for magic is far more advanced than anything Garlemald's been able to whip up, given that the entire continent is saturated with aether, more than any other landmass.

Superior technology does not single handedly win wars. History has showed that multiple times. Can you imagine how much more the United States would have lost the Vietnam War if the Vietcong and NVA had access to people that can warp reality, throw gigantic fireballs capable of melting their tanks, and pulls shards of space rock down onto their foes?

I'm curious to whether or not their little plan to block off the Burn is going to actually work, though even if it does, that just makes Ala Mhigo even more of an appealing target for the Garleans.

I also wonder if they're trying to suggest that the whole warfare through subterfuge approach Thancred was suggesting was what ended up causing a problem in another reality/timeline, and a direct attack may actually be what ends up being necessary to prevent the calamity somehow.

An all out attack from either side is unlikely to take place. With that said, the Eorzean Alliance is currently the aggressor. At this point, it is no longer a simple case of Garlean aggression. Furthermore, Garlemald is being manipulated by Ascian meddling which further complicates matters. Eorzea should, realistically, be in a position where it cannot take on Garlemald directly. In an all out war, it would probably lose - unless it resorts to desperate and controversial measures. I doubt very much that the 4.4 MSQ's ended with the suggestion that sorrow lay ahead for no reason.

FFXIV is highly likely to embrace similar themes to FFXII where Garlemald's story is concerned. Perhaps with a bit of FFXV thrown in. It won't be an exact copy of either story - because the writers enjoy mixing things up with their own unique twists. Yet Solus is almost certainly meant to be a throwback to Ardyn of FFXV...and Varis' contempt for Ascian meddling combined with his desire to put history in the hands of mortal men is very similar to Vayne's words from FFXII. As I've been suggesting all along, this is not going to be a story about 'good' and 'bad'. It's a story about a war where the real enemies are the puppeteers. Namely, the Ascians.

The same Ascians that have no real loyalty to Garlemald and likely want one or both sides to wipe the other out...or push one side to the brink. They will be very content if the Eorzean Alliance pushes Garlemald into a corner, be it through an all out attack or sabotage from within. Equally, they'd be content if Garlemald went on the offensive. Varis' restraint and resistance is to be commended.

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Originally Posted by NoblePigeon

You're forgetting that one of those kinds of forts was destroyed by the concentrated efforts of not just the WoL, but other Adventurers as well. Sure, the battles and planning leading up to that was quite complex and there was no small amount of uncertainty that it would succeed, but in the end, it did.

-Snip-

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It would seem I have over-played my sarcasm and my tongue in cheek jests regarding a war with the Empire. Allow me to be clear on two short items:

• I love history and could go for days discussing all sorts of social, cultural, economic and military related debates on the merits and demerits of war both in fictitious and non-fictitious settings. The excellent nuances of this game and its histories are no exception.
• Two, several of my friends in-game already know me to be an aged long fan of what the Garlean Empire could be. There are a few Garleans that I genuinely like and their character adds great depth to Eorzea.

That said, I'm not certain of where you are within the MSQ so I will try to be neutral in my comments so as not to spoil it for other readers / players.

The Garleans once had a brilliant strategist -- no, I'm not referring to Solus at the moment-- his name was Gaius. And almost as if he had Sun Tzu's "Art of War" in his back pocket, he understood the huge merits of establishing victory without unnecessary loss of life, infrastructure, and resources. He already understood that an all out war was never good for any side, even the victorious side.

Thus, this is the same situation in which Eorzea now finds itself. The realistic and logical direction that a conflict with the Empire would follow is basically a war of attrition with a underlying war of subterfuge as its foundation. Ironically, the subterfuge option is already being "planned" by one side, so to speak... I shall not divulge any more to prevent spoilers.

There will also likely be a "zone" where battles --not a full war--- will regularly occur, with both sides generally attempting to secure resources with minimal fighting; for example, fighting for crystals or Ceruleum resources. Once those resources are secure, a retreat is imminent and so it will go back and forth until the resources are exhausted. In situations where the Empire will elect to use full force and raze an outpost, fortress or small city to the ground, it is generally done in order to strike fear into the opposing side and erode morale.

Hydaelyn's current state of affairs has made several layers of intrigue come into play and nothing is no more as clear cut as it seems... I won't be surprised if at some point, we will be helping the Garleans prevent their own empire from imploding in on itself.

I have a feeling things won't come to full out war, but instead we'll end up dividing the empire and allying with 'good' garleans against 'bad' garleans. Maybe we'll get a flashy battle in 4.5 but I don't' expect a full on invasion force. I suspect 5.0 will be use allied with TotallyNotGaius and Varis against the ascians. And Varis not only forbade Zenos from retaliating beyond Gyr Abania's borders in SB but also is hesitant now to order the invasion.

He forbade it yes, until someone reminded him that he is a puppet and must do what he is told, so that invasion is coming.
Varis did try to change the course of the empire by sponsoring the populares, but someone saw to end that before it could happen

Also before ppl forgets. The garleans DO believe that they are saving the world, the difference between populares and optimates is how they want to rule. Both sides still want to conquer and educate the ppl of the world, they but differ in how, but at the end of the day for both of them non garleans or honorary garleans are savages and don't mistake that