Astrologian Lore

Thank you for the responses everyone, that does help bring it all into perspective a bit more. On a personal level I still don't feel comfortable in it apparently playing as much of a role as it does in the Sharlayan decision making process (assuming it was consulted at all on events such as the Exodus of the Colony or the Isle of Val). But at least knowing its fallible from a lore-standpoint is more comforting. The idea of it being a science on the long-path to perfection is certainly more in-line with Sharlayan thematics as we've been exposed to them so far.

As I've posted before there is a faction of Sharlayan astrologians in the Forum and its leader actually holds an influential position there, influential enough to sway the Forum to ignore the growing of Sharlayan astromancy among the savages. I don't see any problem they employ astrologians in their decision making, it's not different than how some corporate hire an analyst to predict future trend in market.

As far as Alexander and fighting Fate goes, here's my take on it. One could definately see the possibilities of the future and from that make a choice as to what action to take to make your desired outcome a reality, a very powerful scryer though could anticipate people divining their fates and what actions they would take from that information, their future is not set in stone, but without action from outside the timeline, the choice they make will nevertheless be the same and thus they will take it. Thus, while things are not set in stone, you could say they are set in clay, the outcomes can be seen but can be changed if an outside force makes it so.

A bit of a related thought experiment I've worked on is that while we each make our own choices and are far from mindless automatons, if you had enough knowledge about the people in a given situation, you would be able to know exactly what choices they would make to a given stimulus, making a sort of mathematical fate. However, knowledge of such a fate would lead people to subvert it for the sake of individuality, a predictable choice that would lead to predictable choices, just different from the initial outcome.

On this topic, maybe... what about the Dragon Star Ishgardian astrologians use to predict the horde? Is that a real, measurable effect, or is Nidhogg just messing with Ishgard? Is it perhaps the dragons home star?

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Originally Posted by Grayve

Is that a real, measurable effect, or is Nidhogg just messing with Ishgard?

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Mentions of how the practice started made it sound like a pretty concrete correlation, at least.
The cause is up for debate.

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Originally Posted by Grayve

Is it perhaps the dragons home star?

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Until we get more information, that's my first suspect, as well. Two of the biggest mystery factors are that that Midgardsormr is alien to Hydaelyn and this thing in space correlates to their activity. More likely to be connected than not sans further data.

Doesn't the lore book have anything more to say on the matter?

In any case, while I can appreciate why the OP is asking about the alleged conflict between the study of astromancy and Sharlayan ideology, I feel the issue has been somewhat mis-interpreted.

Just as arcanima is to Eorzeans what geometry and applied mathematics are to Earthlings, I think of Eorzean astromancy as the fantasy equivalent of real-world astronomy.

Let's begin with the introduction to Sharlayan astromancy, given by Jannequinard:

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Originally Posted by Jannequinard

Astrologians of the Sharlayan school draw on the aether contained in the celestial bodies represented in the constellations by "unlocking" or "opening" the gate to heaven that constellation is correlated with. There is no actual gate... Think of it as more a portal to the soul. You are opening your mind, allowing for attunement with these distant bodies, much like one attunes with an aetheryte, but on a far grander scale.

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Originally Posted by Jannequinard

Just as there are seven realms of the underworld, so too are there seven realms of the firmament. Each of the first six represent one of the six basic elements — earth, ice, water, wind, lightning, and fire — the seventh and final heaven representing the elements' astral polarity.

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I believe the above underscores the basic "science" of astromancy. Just as arcanists study ways to harness and manipulate the aether of objects through arcane geometry, Sharlayan astrologians seek to attune to their aether to that of the stars, and subsequently learn ways of harnessing the attuned aether for magical effects.

Essentially, astromancy is no less valid a "science" to the Sharlayans as arcanima, conjury and thaumaturgy are — it's a form of aether manipulation that has measurable cause and effect, and that's why it's deemed worthy of study.

Now, in the case of astromancy, this cause-and-effect involves space-time, which Eorzeans understand simply as "fate".

Real-life astronomers apply mathematics, physics and chemistry to describe space-time, and effect of mass and gravity on the very fabric of reality. Massive objects like black holes can "bend" both time and space, and create really bizarre effects from our three-dimensional perspective. Theoretically, if we could fully understand the relationship between mass, time and space, time-travel and the folding of space itself would be possible. We would be the "masters" of the very fabric of all reality.

Now, here's the fun part: How would we translate real science to a fantasy setting like FFXIV's? We obviously won't be talking about space-time per se (that belongs in another genre!) but rather about the act of reading one's "fate". Given the Eorzean "fact" that it's possible to attune one's aether to the constellations, the next "logical" step would be to believe that the movement of the stars has some kind of effect on the mortals below.

Perhaps one day it would be possible to fully "predict" how the movement of stars affect mortals. But given that astromancy appears to be somewhat new to Eorzea (unlike arcanima, which has been around since at least the time of the Allagans in the Third Astral Era; and black and white magic, which has been around since the Fifth Astral Era), it's quite likely that the myriad possibilities haven't been fully mapped out yet, hence the current imprecision in fate-reading.

All in all, this is how I rationalise astromancy in the context of Eorzea's lore. Make of it what you will, but I do hope it helps to spur imagination on the topic. :)

It's worth noting that the Sharlayans don't really seem to understand what they're doing or what underpins their art all that well, given that Astromancy has an entire sect based on Dalamud which a) wasn't actually a moon and b) isn't even in orbit anymore - and yet, Nocturnal Sect remains something that objectively exists.

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Originally Posted by Leveva

You have come far since that fateful day our paths first crossed in the Black Shroud. And now, here we are, on the cusp of your attunement with the sixth heaven. Time truly waits for no man, does it? Before we set forth on this task, I wish to teach you of a second set of stars--the nocturnal sect. The nocturnal sect contains those celestial bodies ruled by the two moons. I say two, because since the dawn of astrology, disciples of our field have used Dalamud in their readings. Now, even after the false moon's fall, its position...or should I say, its absense, yet has influence over our fates. Whereas the sun and the diurnal stars represent the self, expression, the active--and the moon and the nocturnal stars represent the unconscious, the passive--Dalamud represents, and still does represent the uncontrollable. Its power has the ability to quicken the senses, as well as provide added protection from the unknown--things beneficial when pursuing one's fate.

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I think we also need to take into account that the Sharlayans have a much better perspective on Astrology than we do. Our only window into the science is by what we learn from the AST quests, as well as assorted blurbs from other NPCs. To us, Astrology may look to be a charlatan's practice - but we know that the Sharlayans are a culture of science and learning, and yet they take this so-called charlatan's practice very, very seriously. While it's possible that their serious consideration of Astrology stems from some cultural tradition that they simply haven't managed to root out yet, I'd say it's far more likely that there really is something to it that the Sharlayans see clearly, but we (with our limited view) do not.

So, the question isn't really, "Why do the Sharlayans take this ridiculous 'science' seriously," so much as it is, "What do the Sharlayans understand about Astrology that we do not?"

Also, I think that the weather prediction thing hits the nail right on the head. There are lots of sciences in the real world that are taken very seriously, even if they can only produce probabilities, rather than fast-and-hard facts.

Thanks to the Alexander storyline, we know that there are many possible futures, even if the past is pretty much rooted in stone. Even if the future you see may not necessarily be the one that comes to pass, it can still present useful clues, as well as bits of concrete useful data. For example, if an Astrologian looks to next Tuesday and discovers that Eorzea will be razed to the ground by the Garlians in an unspeakable orgy of blood and fire as the blackened skies drench the earth in a deluge not seen since the great flood - well, even if the WoL steps up and nips that Garlean problem in the bud, at least you'll know to pack an umbrella next Tuesday!

I think it may be more like Phlogiston theory or Lamarckian inheritance, in that Astromancy was a perfectly sound working theoretical framework to describe what's happening given all observable evidence but now there's a new set of evidence challenging it.

You read the cards, they tell you something vague. You go do the thing, and then what you read sort of comes true or you're in a position to make it happen, so the cards were right!

Just like real fortune-telling!

OR: Lord Rufin (the original) reads the cards, they say "Go to Eorzea, you will find a successor!" So he goes to Eorzea and happens to find you, who he names his successor because the cards said he'd find one on the trip and you just happen to fit the bill (or so he feels)!

This reeks of confirmation bias...

One can't deny the practical applications of astromancy, but the rest is kinda seedy if you ask me.