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Here's my evidence of the transfer service not playing by the same rules as the character creation. The day I paid for the transfer to balmung, I logged into FFXIV and checked the status of the server. It was closed. This was around 10am CST on a Tuesday. It is not a time where the server is going to be open. Immediately after checking the server status for about 30 minutes of refreshing the list every 3 minutes. I then logged into mog station and paid for the transfer. 5 minutes after that, the character transferred. So no, the character creation on the server was not opened up at the time I paid for the transfer. This shows that there's a different set of rules it goes by.
I'd also like to point out that character creation and transfers have nothing to do with how many characters are created on a server. It's the "concurrent logins" to the server that matter. I had been checking at all times of the day for 2 weeks straight before I decided to pay for the transfer service. No luck finding an open time even at the "non peak" hours of 2am-8am CST. I am not the only one who has had this problem and just given up to pay for a transfer and have it happen right away.
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Again not refuting you instace of this happening just asking for others to validate here as well. A sample size of 2 refuting occurances which we have here is not large enough to validate either possibility as the defacto.
As you say and I also know creation is available live based on currently logged on accounts, refreshed server side more often than a client is permitted to check availability. A) nothing is stopping the availability opening on happenstance for the brief window, however statisticly unlikely from your attemp spam. B) rmt bans would be a valid gauge of account being actively logged in, as they do not generate revenue while offline and therefore have almost 100% uptime logged into their respective servers.
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I'm interested to know this as well. One reason I don't think the RMT ban plays much into this though is because those RMT accounts would have most likely been logged in already which wouldn't factor into the characters concurrently logging in at that time. There's not really any visibility we have so it's tough to know.