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It would be actually harder to prove that it is truly "random". And seeing how no one has been able to prove this yet... Aren't we in a draw?Quote:
Originally Posted by Borfin
Not to mention what has already been said about RNG and entropy, where you can never assure "true" entropy (aka randomness), you can only try to achieve a higher amount. It's a crappy thing really, and very complicated or as simple as you wish to make it.
If you win the lottery twice in a row you can be sure someone will be doing an official investigation as to whether you cheated or not. Even though you can't prove if something is truly random or not, you can be reasonably confident if you see odds that are on the order of lottery level luck. That said most of the 'bad luck' people report are nowhere close to lottery level odds, and the ones that are tends to be so improbable that there's no reason to believe they're true (usually they'd be events that's equivalent of winning 2 lotteries in a row).
RNG is usually based on current time, coming from the year all the way down to a microth of a second. It creates enough variance that it might as well be completely random.
Problem is people tend to focus more on the failures and ignore successes. For example, I can complain all I want about Hasty Touch repeatedly failing and never working, but if I look at the big picture over a long period of time, it usually comes out to around 70% success with Steady Hands.
Another issue is the size of the samples. Even 30 Garuda kills is extremely small and even then there's about a 2.9% of not seeing your weapon. You may say you've seen 9 summoner books and no scholar books and I can claim it's the opposite for me. This is also assuming that every drop has an equal chance of even dropping, which could very likely not be the case. Unless someone has the database from the game to confirm it, I honestly wouldn't be too surprised that the weapons that don't seem to drop that often from Garuda end up appearing more often from Titan.
Don't mistake the term pseudo random number generator for meaning not-even-close-to random number generator. For all purposes aside from incredibly demanding monte carlo simulations and cryptography PRNGs can be thought of as perfectly random.
The most common PRNG has a period length (number of runs before it will repeat the sequence) on the order of 10^6000.
Nothing in an MMO will ever even come close to pushing the limits of 'randomness' for any recent PRNG.
It's all in the odds, the odds are that you will get a weapon or an item from X chest 100% of the time. The odds of a specific item never change. In terms of primals the odds are 1/9, of any specific weapon dropping. And the odds never change, no matter win 9, 90, 900. So it is very possible with the odds never changing to in fact never see an item drop ever. It's like a container filled with colored tags, you draw a tag, and the odd is 1/9 if it being the color you want. Then you put the tag back in, shake, and draw again. The odds are again 1/9. I have done garuda and ifrit over 100 times each and i have not see all the weapons drop yet. And i may never see them, the odd of 1/9, is not the same a 1/9 percentile.
This is one of the game models i hate, because you are not guaranteed your item after the 10-100 or 1000th run. I have seen people get item X 1/1 kills as hey hit gold on the odds, i have seen people 0/100 with the same identical odds.
Turning RnG in to a science is fine for the Forum but game play wise it's another matter.
Run Garuda for 3 weeks a hundred times, get books every single time. Not 8 classes, miss the one you want but ALL books and the RnG becomes rigged.
I farm Mahogany, base 82% and get 1 in for on a node, you obtain nothing. Hit Field Mastery II and boost it to 97% and still get a you obtain nothing on every node? I just stop hitting Field Mastery II and mash insert.
We stop trying and that's the threat of funky RnG. People stop bothering.