How is your new zodiak drop rates so far?

I was thinking about statistics of this questline and was going for 25% chance myself (after 10 drops in 40 dungeon runs).
Inputting numbers into a negative binomial distribution CDF (which seemed to be the most suitable to model this) gave me that at 25% chance of getting A dungeon drop, I'd only have a little more than 50% chance of getting all 16 items in 64 runs (which would be perfect 25% end result).
I'm not too good at statistics though, so I could be wrong here...

1/17 WP
1/1 Haukke
1/2 AV
1/3 Lost City
1/8 Sastasha
0/6 Brayflox
0/9 Copperbell
0/3 Dzemael

AV and Haukke were the very first couple of dungeons i ran, and then things went south real quick...

1/1 WP
1/1 Copperbell
1/4 Hullbraker
1/1 AV (phew!)
1/9 Quarn
1/6 Hauke Manor
1/4 Lost City
1/2 Satasha
1/7 DH
1/9 Brayflox (and got Baby Opo-opo in the 2nd run :D)
1/1 Halatali
1/11 Snowcloak
1/5 AK
1/1 Pharos Sirius
1/1 Tam-Tara
1/5 Stone Vigil

16/68

Around 23.53% for me with the bonus of getting Baby Opo-opo finally :D

Done!

update

WP 1/10
Copperbell Mines 1/1
Hullbreaker Isle 1/8
Aurum Vale 1/1
Hakkue Manor 1/1
Sunken Temple Hard 1/10+
Satasha 1/2
Ampodar City 1/10+
Brayflox 1/8+
Dzemael Darkhold 1/1
Halatali 1/15
Snowcloak 1/6

6/8 HQ mats.
One more set of dungeons to go for me.
I can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Snowcloak giving me troubles 0/15 now

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Zumi

Snowcloak giving me troubles 0/15 now

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I hope you get lucky soon. lol
36 runs of Hullbreaker for Kraken blood here. Not fun.

0/4738974892374892374892378492378942379423 Copperbell. :(!!!! I'm about to initiate a table flip if I don't get that drop anytime soon.

0/21 Halatali hm and counting ; ;

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Squa11_Leonhart

Gambler's Fallacy.

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Not really, but poor words choice. The item WILL drop, that's a fact... at 15% chance (or whatever the real drop rate is)
But then, fact is that after each subsequent run, you have more chance to have had the drop. at 15%, it would take 14 runs to have 90% chance at your drop (in total). While having only 15% chance per run.

Update from other post:

WP 1/1
CB HM 1/1
Haukke Manor HM 1/17
Brayflox HM 1/16
Hullbreaker Isle 1/26
AK 1/1
Pharos Sirius 1/6
Aurum Vale 1/1 (<3)
Tam Tara HM 0/5