Dragoons: A Rotation Reborn

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This is the exact same “potency” stat as with weaponskills.

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Is either poorly stated or mistaken (something reflected in that he has a different formula for it!), but it should be close to 100 potency / 3 seconds, which is good enough for most estimates.

Just did a quick and dirty test with both weapons (664 STR, 394 DET). Using (min+max)/2, Zeta average AA is 257.833333±0.5, Dreadwyrm average AA is 250.5±0.5.

So, the weapon auto-attack stats being 57.22 and 55.68 respectively, the theoretical ratio is 1.02765805 and the observed ratio is 1.02927478 (which given our margin of error is practically perfect).

Yah it's worded poorly. His tests show it at being 98.66 potency per average AA.

Btw, you got anymore Determination Data I can use? I'm gathering DET data from 300-660 STR then plotting it, then going to do the same with 0 WD - 58 WD. I got all this week free to do a lot of data collection.

I got three more 333 STR data points, but... finals wait for no one, I'm afraid!

determination 333 STR ability 333 STR AA
240 121.833333333333 117.666666666667
255 122.916666666667 120
266 123.5282051 120.5
281 124.555555555556 122.5
302 125.7 124.5
306 126.166666666667 125.5

What I've been trying to look into is whether we are violating some of the assumptions of least-squares regression and should be using a different solver approach (conclusion: we probably are, but I can't tell whether it'd even make a difference or how to go about it). This stuff is making my head spin a bit....

Yeah don't worry about it. You focus on your Finals mate! I should have a lot of data by the end of the week hopefully and send them over to you to look at, once you've finished IRL stuff of course :p

EDIT: If anyone has any datapoints collected so far on their Dragoon, they're welcome to lend me a hand and tell me how accuracy this is:

(Potency/100)*((WD*0.104+2.374)*(STR*0.0268+1.682)*(DTR*0.00073+1.189))

It's rounded up cause I cba dealing with numbers in the 10th decimal. It's accurate, but I'm still collecting more DET Datapoints obviously to compare how this formula scales Determination, in comparison to in-game parses.

EDIT 2: If anyone has the Dreadwyrm Chest + Legs, I need min/max data logs of 58WD, 660 & 648 STR with below 340 DET @ 150 potency and the Auto-Attack logs. Lower the DET, the Better. Especially Auto-Attacks. Even better would be min/max values of fully comboed Full Thrusts for more accuracy. I really need these.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?featur...4e0QM3SY#t=429

Weeeeeell.

For a better quality view. Shows LB and one of DRGs new moves.

https://youtu.be/RGOIF_7vuLw

Dat LB tho.

Eye of the Tiger Dragon

Also, it looks like we got a new self-buff ability 5:27, at 7:02 we have a new Skill which leads off Vorpal Thrust. And yes, 5:27 is a new buff and not the Limit Break. The Animations are completely different. Benchmark will be released 16:00JST, 08:00BST, 03:00am EST. I'll assume abilities will be datamined and posted an hour or two after the release.

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Originally Posted by Dervy

Dat LB tho.

Eye of the Tiger Dragon

Also, it looks like we got a new self-buff ability 5:27, at 7:02 we have a new Skill which leads off Vorpal Thrust. And yes, 5:27 is a new buff and not the Limit Break. The Animations are completely different. Benchmark will be released 16:00JST, 08:00BST, 03:00am EST. I'll assume abilities will be datamined and posted an hour or two after the release.

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You just made me look up BST. >_>

On topic, are you going to use the data mine to get a head start on the new rotation, or wait until launch because a lot can change in 6 weeks? Also, Dragon Spirit being the LB instead of a reraise effect is giving the average DRG a lot of credit, no? :p

Yuuuup that's exactly what I plan to do. Or, at least play around with the new skills with potency changes etc so if they do decide to change some of our abilities, we'll have a solid rotation from Day 1 (maybe not perfect, but solid) and be ahead of the game.

It'll be very hard to talk about it on the forums however. We'd have to use mock-up names of the sort, as I'm pretty sure SE are going to be cracking down heavily on Datamined information. They did it with SMN/SCH and they went absolutely balls deep with the 2.2 Data-Mine, even getting their representatives to contact Blue Gartr and other websites hosting the information to remove it completely.

Which is why I'm thinking of not making the 3.0 topic yet... Don't want that forum ban yo.

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Originally Posted by Viridiana

Also, Dragon Spirit being the LB instead of a reraise effect is giving the average DRG a lot of credit, no? :p

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But if we were given a reraise LB, then who would tank the floor?

Fuller Thrust?

http://i.imgur.com/lFXmWcj.jpg

Uhm, the paladin uses Shield Lob+Riot Blade+New skill - which seems kinda off considering that Riot Blade has no effect whatsoever when uncombo'd (like Vorpal). Unless they change anything, at least. I think it's possible that they didn't really make them use the abilities correctly for whatever reason.

Edit: Mibhas I love you for that gif.

Just before we see "fuller thrust " as we're now calling it, you can see True & Vorpal thrust being used in the other camera angle, before zooming into the Dragoon doing the Vorpal Thrust step back and "fuller thrust".
Maybe they are just doing whatever, but if that really is another ability to combo off Vorpal Thrust... our "priority" is gonna be absolutely long as heck...

"Fuller Thrust" looks like a variation of Lancet/Lancer being used by Freya in FFIX: https://youtu.be/VkEn7IqRhGo 00:04 mark

EDIT: HNNGGGG

http://i.imgur.com/Zxqbkjq.gif

They mentioned they would be expanding the combo system. Could mean adding combos to existing attacks we have no combos for:
Phlebotomize->Fuller Thrust
Feint->Fuller Thrust

Or alternate combos Impulse Drive->Disembowel->Fuller Thrust
^seems more likely to be an alternate for this combo perhaps, for short fights, it'll be like 350-400 potency or something, as opposed to 250 with DoT, making itnuseful for short fights?

That buff, maybe it'll be a version of FFXI's Spirit Surge to go along with Power Surge and Life Surge, maybe granting you a -15% reduction to GCD or allows your next GCD to not use a GCD which could mean fitting in an extra attack or so during BFB.

Buffs I can think of:
-Increased crit (unlikely due to LS/IR)
-Increased damage (unlikely due to HT/BFB/Disembowel)
-Reduction to GCD for duration
-Next Weaponskill doesn't have GCD
-Next Weapon skill doesn't cost TP
-Reduction to TP cost by 20-30% for duration (great for AoE?)
-Combo'd weapon skills do an extra 10% damage
-Doubles the duration if your next DoT skill.
-Doubles the damage of your next DoT skill but halves the duration.

If there's a debuff for fuller thrust, I guess it could be:
-Heavy
-Reduces attack power
-Reduces critical hit evasion(allowing anyone who swings to get a 5% crit bonus)
-Puts a debuff on the mob where everyone who attacks gains HP back, like DRG's life surge in 1.0 or DNC's Samba in ffxi.

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Originally Posted by Dervy

EDIT: HNNGGGG

http://i.imgur.com/Zxqbkjq.gif

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Maybe its a party wide buff, that increase magic def for a duration? Since it looks dragon skin wrapping around the character. It could even be for damage done.

Wouldn't really fit DRG's theme, but maybe if they call it Spirit Surge and make it similar to Dragon Soul from FFT-> allows a move that would ordinarily reduce your HP to 0, instead it leaves you at 1 HP, 300s recast. Or...a stoneskin effect but only against magic, similar to FFXI's Rampart/Magic Barrier(physical damage goes through, but magic damage is absorbed by the stoneskin).

But since DRG isn't a tank and is a primarily single target DPS with high HP and decent cooldowns to reduce damage like KF and Elusive, I'd prefer abilities that put us a bit more on par with BRD. In all honesty, DRG should be a better dps than BRD, given that there's a higher risk being in melee range, so i would love if we got better dps abilities rather than a move that reduces an aoe slightly.

inb4 SE is actually going to name the ability "Fuller Thrust" just because of this thread.

The buff does not really look like a party wide buff - more like a Surge. It kinda resembles a WAR buff (Berserk/Infuriate) because of the animation (not the blue visual effect).

If I had to make a guess, Fuller is going to be used in lieu of the first Full in the combo rotation.

So basically:

Ht IDC Ph TTF Ht TTT Ph IDC Ht TTF
and so on.

Of course, that is assuming Fuller is either a DoT of the same duration as Chaos or a debuff like Disembowel (again, same duration) and not something related to support like the side-effect INT down from the Monk's Dragon Kick. And that's just one skill...gosh, I just want to know what kind of skills we're gonna be having right now.

They could also extend the duration of Heavy Thrust. We're getting "loads more abilities and traits", so much that apparently users with the X-Crossbar will be having problems.

Also, the blue Dragoon buff, as someone pointed out to me, looks like Freya's "Reis's Wind" from Final Fantasy IX, on top of Lancet looking like "Fuller Thrust".

Reis's Wind applies a Regen on all your party members. I wouldn't be surprised if we'll be receiving a ton of MP based support/utility skills.

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Originally Posted by Jonnycbad

In all honesty, DRG should be a better dps than BRD, given that there's a higher risk being in melee range

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Uhm... Are we playing the same MMORPG? Because the Dragoon is already 150+ DPS higher than the Bard.

Do Ayvar or Easymode still play?

I assumed BRD was ahead, or maybe used to be ahead...meh

MP based ability would be interesting given we have pretty high Piety left over from 1.0 which they never adjusted. I also thought from the live letter it seemed to suggest we're only getting new actions from job quests, which would be 2; 55 and 60, and traits woven in between. Given in most 10lvl ranges there's only 3 traits or so, I feel like we're likely to get 3 as well; likely buffs to things that aren't already buffed from traits, perhaps Chaos Thrust duration and Phlebotomize duration, and maybe cooldown buffs to Dragonfire or Elusive Jump, or a trait called High Jump or Double that increases Power Surge to +100% potency instead of 50% given most ff games with drg have a high or double jump trait.

A buff for phlebotomize from 18->30sec would be soooo welcome.

Dervy, is the rotation you have in your 2.45 video still relevant? In that video you alternate LS on jump and FT but is that better than doing the 2x FT during Blood with the first one buffed with LS? Your rotation in that video has b4b used on disembowel instead of right before chaos and not sure if it's still relevant or if the ht-ir-leg-dis-b4b-ct-ps-ph-jump-tt-vt-ls-ft-leg-ht-tt-spine-vt-dragonfire-ft is better or more updated than your 2.45 video. Please advise

Everything is very wrong at the moment. The formula? Wrong. My weights on the blog? Wrong. 90% of BiS sets? Suboptimal.

The only thing I can now say, is DET is around 0.38-0.4, SS is 0.14-0.16 and CRT is most probably around 0.23. The next thing is that the more strength you have the more Determination scales.damage, and I have sufficient Data to back this up now.

Right now, I've switched from weighted sets to very... "loose" personal criteria :

- Do I have high Strength?
- Is my Determination high?
- If my strength is lower than i130, is my Determination retardedly high?
- Do I have 380-390 skillspeed for shenanigans?
- Have I met accuracy?

Hopefully all of this will be sorted out before Heavensward... Need more data!

EDIT: Sunny, wtf is going on here?...

Ability Damage DET vs STR:
http://puu.sh/hqVqZ/6104147b4c.png

Compared to Auto-Attack Damage DET vs STR...:
http://puu.sh/hqVtM/237cf912b5.png

I might need to redo all of my Auto-Attack data gathering... It's weird though, because all of my spreadsheets were direct copy&pastes from my ACT logs and all of the numbers I put into my graph are exactly the same. More data you reckon? Or is there some sorcery at play....

Also, at 660 STR, 345&334 DET, my parse numbers are so screwed up. Despite the 11 DET difference, the parsed damage logs are exactly the same (at 100 potency).

When I then parse at 150 Potency for those two skills, then divide by 1.5 to adjust back to 100 potency, the values are much higher, to the point that 345 @ 150/1.5 potency is higher than 355, and 334 @ 150/1.5 potency is higher than 345...

What do? Halp.

EDIT2: For now, I'm just using different determination values... kinda cheating... ah well. All of this Data I'll throw into my solver late on as well for some more accuracy.

MFW

So, two things.

One reason I got my action data from multiple skills (and also used data from crits, which have more precision) is because while I'm not an expert statistician, if my understanding is correct, it should reduce overall systematic rounding errors. Autoattacks are inherently harder to calibrate this way, because the only options you have are using a different weapon of the same iLvl (annoying / impossible) and buffs/debuffs (hard to track with existing tools, and the Right Answer is to write a program that tracks it, of course, but that's... like, a set of technologies I'd need to learn before I could program it). It stands to reason that it should even out some weird data points. I mean, it works for electron microscopes, right?

The other thing is that you may have run into a possibility I was afraid of: that there may be significant rounding voodoo throwing things off, or there just plain isn't a pure formula underlying all ranges of all stats (rather, partially or entirely LUT based calculations).

In the event that it's like a pure formula, though, we could entertain the idea that one point of a stat is not quite equivalent to the next while being linear in general--that is to say, there is error in x as well as in y. In that case, we ought to use an errors-in-variables regression (this should also reduce a bias in linear slopes that I suspect exists because formulas we've seen before tend to underestimate future gearsets).

So, there is yet hope, but anyway I am dreading having a look at auto-attacks because the level of error is a nuisance.

If y'all need more data sets (though they'd be from other jobs, probably), I'm not doing much until 3.0. :p

Yup I also jumped on the Wildstar train as well. Was completely garbage. The story mode quests are awesome, especially the final batch of quests we just got in 2.55. Oooh baby. But if you wanted to get your ilvl up quickly, World of Darkness 24-man raid is your best bet.

Uhm... Yeah http://sim.ffxivguild.net/ but it's garbage. Your old sim for the bard is much better imo. T0rin and other players also quit. I wish they stayed :( Poor Summoners haven't had a thread for over a year.

If you want to talk about a remaking a Bard simulator, contact reddit.com/u/MrYaah (he might post here at some point). He has a very good Bard Model which we worked on together for quite some time and I think he's in the process of making a simulator in Python.

EDIT:

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Originally Posted by Viridiana

If y'all need more data sets (though they'd be from other jobs, probably), I'm not doing much until 3.0. :p

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Bard stuff could be quite useful, just to check whether the JP assumption that Dragoon and Bards share the same Job Coefficient is accurate or not.

EDIT 2: These is my result so far using my "Occam's Razor" approach. No rounding. Still need more Data Samples to account for even greater accuracy, but I think I'm drawing closer and closer to something we can start working with. It's the only expression thus far which has given me the most desirable results.

http://puu.sh/hs7GZ/58be85360f.png

http://puu.sh/hs7J2/1aa1ff155a.png

AC: ((WD*0.0403713+0.9236585)*(AP*0.0445705+2.645907)*(DET*0.0011454+1.8473665))

AA: ((WD*0.0403713+0.9236585)*(AP*0.0445705+2.645907)*(DET*0.0022385+1.5882988))

http://www.filedropper.com/detvsbasestrtotals

And yes, the WD*AP*DET expression even works with 0 WD parses. If people could go through it and check for mistakes and/or have any suggestions to improve on, I'll greatly appreciate it. Remember, only works for the Dragoon and maybe the Bard.

What I, or someone, needs to work on is how this bloody game rounds numbers...

The problem with the old dps simulator is that the code was really not very polymorphic and couldn't really handle what I had planned for putting in stat weights (it just did pure power conversions, w/o stats and damage). It also didn't have a very robust priority parsing. Also you don't want to see what the event handling was like, there was a lot of spaghetti code. Was originally made for just bards. Monks and dragoons weren't too hard to add, but trying to make it work for casting was a chore, esp once things started taking more/less time than GCD.

If I do go back to it I would likely start over, maybe with a different language, either one that could be hosted online or something faster like C++. I don't think I could ever work with python, indents for braces? No way >.< Python's lamda functions would be useful though.

I should also add that iirc the simulator's primary purpose was to define "optimal" rotations, something which I figured people would have done by now since its been 2 years, but I guess people are still arguing about things? Back then when the game first came out there were a lot of people with terrible playstyles. So the simulator was made to settle those arguments. I couldn't really care less about stat weights, I get little enough gear as is.

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Originally Posted by Dervy

EDIT:
Bard stuff could be quite useful, just to check whether the JP assumption that Dragoon and Bards share the same Job Coefficient is accurate or not.

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I'm bad at checking for edits! BRD data coming up soon. . .

Gear: Wave Bow (42 WD) and Race Specific Equipment
Stats: 42 WD, 202 Determination, 307 AP, 2.8 weapon Delay

Heavy Shot (150 Pot) 153-170 normal, 229-254 critical
Straight Shot (140 Pot) 142-157 normal, 212-235 critical
Auto Attack (2.80 delay) 77-86 normal, 116-129 critical

Only using Straight Shot, Heavy Shot (Bloodletter too just for more data points), and Barrage. Looks like after the +Damage% buffs the 150 potency skill is almost twice the 2.80 auto attack.

Second round:

Stats: 42 WD, 202 Determination, 413 AP, 2.8 weapon delay

Heavy Shot 197-218 normal, 297-328 critical
Straight Shot 183-202 normal, 274-303 critical
Auto Attack 100-111 normal, 151-166 critical (150 auto attack refused to happen >_<)

Third round:

Stats: 42 WD, 246 Determination, 413 AP, 2.8 delay

Heavy Shot 202-223 normal, 305-336 critical (pretty sure 304 is minimum, but wasn't happening)
Straight Shot 188-207 normal, 281-310 critical
Auto Attack 105-116 normal, 157-174 critical

Fourth round:

Stats: 46 WD, 233 Determination, 315 AP, 3.28 delay

Heavy Shot 168-185 normal, 253-279 critical
Straight Shot 157-174 normal, 236-260 critical
Auto Attack 102-113 normal, 153-170 critical

Final set for now:

Stats: 46 WD, 303 Determination, 562 AP, 3.28 delay

Heavy Shot 288-319 normal, 434-478 critical
Straight Shot 269-297 normal, 409-442 critical (should be about 405 minimum)
Auto Attack 183-202 normal, 274-303 critical.

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Originally Posted by pandabearcat

The problem with the old dps simulator is that the code was really not very polymorphic and couldn't really handle what I had planned for putting in stat weights (it just did pure power conversions, w/o stats and damage). It also didn't have a very robust priority parsing. Also you don't want to see what the event handling was like, there was a lot of spaghetti code. Was originally made for just bards. Monks and dragoons weren't too hard to add, but trying to make it work for casting was a chore, esp once things started taking more/less time than GCD.

If I do go back to it I would likely start over, maybe with a different language, either one that could be hosted online or something faster like C++. I don't think I could ever work with python, indents for braces? No way >.< Python's lamda functions would be useful though.

I should also add that iirc the simulator's primary purpose was to define "optimal" rotations, something which I figured people would have done by now since its been 2 years, but I guess people are still arguing about things? Back then when the game first came out there were a lot of people with terrible playstyles. So the simulator was made to settle those arguments. I couldn't really care less about stat weights, I get little enough gear as is.

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But we have lamdas in C++11!
http://www.cprogramming.com/c++11/c+...-closures.html

Yes, indent braces sound disgusting...

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Originally Posted by Viridiana

Numbers

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Awesome! I'll make some Ninja, Warrior and Dragoon sets and try to match your parses.

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Originally Posted by Dervy

Awesome! I'll make some Ninja, Warrior and Dragoon sets and try to match your parses.

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Yeah, sorry for some of the wonky AP/Det numbers @_@

BRD isn't my main any more, so I'm mostly working with i110 and lower gear. . .

It's fine! :D Low WD is what I need next anyway. Also, SquareEnix were really careful to make sure nothing got Datamined early with the Benchmark... Most of the Database isn't there, a lot of the files are messed up and so far, PV (XIVDB Dataminer) has only been able to get one song out of it, which won't even convert to a half-decent audio file :(. Hopefully Carraway on the BG forums can get something out of it.

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Originally Posted by pandabearcat

If I do go back to it I would likely start over, maybe with a different language, either one that could be hosted online or something faster like C++. I don't think I could ever work with python, indents for braces? No way >.< Python's lamda functions would be useful though.

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(((((((LISP 4 LYFE)))))))

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Originally Posted by pandabearcat

I should also add that iirc the simulator's primary purpose was to define "optimal" rotations, something which I figured people would have done by now since its been 2 years, but I guess people are still arguing about things?

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I'm a little surprised that some of this stuff wasn't figured out by the time I started playing seriously (a year ago). I hope I can prepare a summary of FFXIV rotation theorycrafting before HW, including where the details come from and what's not necessarily set in stone.

Dervy: Here's where I was going with that calibration thing. This is what the spreadsheet does: Take the assumption that there is some internal non-integer value for a point of potency and the end result is rounded to the nearest integer. Generate some silly internal value points, multiply them for potency and ±5% values, then round them. Try to estimate the internal value from what you get.

As you can see, the overall accumulated error to estimate that value decreases as you have higher potency, like you should expect (because there's less of that value taken up by that ±0.5 uncertainty, or ±0.333333333 for crits but we're not looking at that here). But if you use multiple measurements of the same internal value, you can alleviate this rounding error somewhat; it can introduce error in some cases, but the overall effect is a serious reduction in the error (see that RSS of 0.146 for 360 potency only vs 0.0554).

I mostly work off the assumption of this internal value based on crits having a higher resolution than non-crits (for a made-up example, you might see 573 for a non-crit, but then the crits might attest both 859 and 860--perhaps not these exact numbers, perhaps not for every value possible, but I have seen crits do things like this from time to time).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dervy

Uhm... Yeah http://sim.ffxivguild.net/ but it's garbage. Your old sim for the bard is much better imo. T0rin and other players also quit. I wish they stayed :( Poor Summoners haven't had a thread for over a year.

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Well, a meaningful thread anyway.

Dervy wanted me to let you all know that he has been suspended from the forums for two weeks. RIP. He can still be reached via youtube (Dervy Gaming) or reddit (u/iDervyi) if need be.

Was probably too excited about my nonexistent simulator. It turns out I actually lost the source code for it when I swapped computers. Oops.

Update: Possible Dervy perma-ban?! The plot thickens.

When BFB is down, the ideal dragoon rotation becomes HT->PB->CT combo due to a lack of buff snapshotting correct?

3 GCDs of PB DoT ticks> 1 GCD of CT DoT ticks +10% initial hit on PB

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Originally Posted by Outfoxed

When BFB is down, the ideal dragoon rotation becomes HT->PB->CT combo due to a lack of buff snapshotting correct?

3 GCDs of PB DoT ticks> 1 GCD of CT DoT ticks +10% initial hit on PB

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Don't forget one losing 10% off one GCD of autos, one GCD/auto from the BRD if you have one.