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If you get 10 misses for every 90 hits that is the perfect result based on theory. You guys are pulling the theory argument and now you ask what I want as the preferable result instead?Quote:
Originally Posted by GunksFoy
Stop playing around make up your mind. You are arguing the theory or arguing what people want as the result. I am been objective. Lay down all the facts then you can continue the debate. At the moment both sides are biased.
Elamys
I can tell you it doesnt happen. Unless I 100% it, I fail at least 50% of the time. So much that its not worth it for me to try the touch skill without steady hands. In gathering, the result and the displayed percentage on obtaining an item is alot worse. However, the percentage on whether HQ items is correct or not seems to be more inline. Occasionally you can severely over perform over a relatively small number of tries, say 30-40. In the case of HQ items its actually consistently over performing. That is result based.
For the theory, it is correct to bet on red if it lands on black. You know as well as anyone that it will not always land on black, otherwise the perceived percentage would be almost 90-100%. People are not stupid. While it is not reliable to land on red, it is definitely not false. Especially if you consider the chance to be 50% in which instance it doesnt matter which you bet, hence you cannot be false at all. You'll be right whatever you choose if the chance system is perfect. Secondly, probability changes when you are looking at things from different perspective.
We are not looking at an isolated chance of success here. If we are yes, it can fail. The problem here is not that yes it can fail, the problem is that its failing way more than it should over multiple tries. This more like conditional probability. Considering a single instance in isolation is completely wrong. Giving your reasoning a name doesnt make it right, particularly when you are applying it wrong.
And yet, when I look at my synths overall, when other crafters in this thread have looked at their synths overall, it is a 90% chance of success. Like I don't know what your issue is. I'm sorry you failed to HQ a craft?
This isn't even touching on the complexity of getting true RNG into a game, where "clumping" can happen. What do you want to do? What options are you proposing to solve this not issue, because it is in fact working as intended?
How often are you actually synthing and gathering to have this issue? Because I can guarantee you, it's not nearly as bad as you're saying, and if it is, you are doing something wrong, plain and simple.
By all accounts, the RNG method that the game uses is one of the highest quality ones available if your goal is true randomness(several people have argued for weighted probability - failing making you more likely to succeed in the future - but thats a separate argument and a core change to the way the game works that is highly unlikely to happen). You said that considering a single instance is wrong, but thats literally all the game looks at. When you press the button for synth(or whatever) it randomly determines success/failure based on the percentages. It doesnt consider whether you failed or not the last 5 times you tried, it only looks at the current attempt. I leveled all 8 crafters to 60 without help, as well as all 3 gatherers. Ive hand crafted roughly 10000-12000 items in that time, and gathered two or three times that many. Ive had 98% successes fail, ive had 1% successes work. I will tell you that in my experience the system is working as intended, as have several other people. This is really more of a psychological issue for many people - they remember their failures much more readily then their victories. The reason Elamys mentioned the gamblers fallacy(and linked to a description) is because it is directly related to this phenomenon. Many casinos put up a board of the most recent 10-20 spins on a roulette wheel because they know people will look at it and think that they can tell what will happen next based on what happened last. This causes them to bet more and lose more - the casinos goal. The wheel doesnt care if the last 200 spins were all black(as unlikely as that would be), the next one is just as likely to be black again as it is to be red - but people in general ignore or dont understand that.
Try the following: spend a couple of hours running /random and recording and plotting the results, I guarantee you will not see a pattern and that distribution is fairly even
Why aren't people using reclaim if they're failing that many hasty touches?
They're probably scared by the fact that Reclaim still has a chance to fail, but I've failed reclaim so rarely that, yes, I definitely think 90% is still 90%.
reclaim was when I stopped taking crafting seriously. It failed every third time.