My Final prediction

[Daniolaut]

I am regretful to announce not only my "Final" prediction for "Final Fantasy" but that it appears it is not a good one.

The Prediction:

I do not believe Final Fantasy will prosper much longer, and Square-Enix is on the path to going under.

Even if I somehow was hired by SE and put in charge of every single direction of every game, and required to be consulted on every decision, I'm not 100% confident even I could save the series at this point.

"Final Fantasy XIV has greatly damaged the Final Fantasy name"

This statement is more true than ever, and it has nothing to do with FFXIV 1.0, but the current state of FFXIV, including FFXI, and the direction of the entire franchise, including its fans.

The State of Final Fantasy XI:

The developers,
Square-Enix isn't recognizing FFXI as a profitable game.
The development team has been pulled to other titles, instead of ensuring FFXI is on a clearly defined roadmap, and communicating to fans of a clear and ensured future.

The players,
Believe FFXI will no longer receive new content. Veterans grow tired of SE announcing new content is not planned, then seeing them return when newer SE titles fail to deliver profits.

The State of the series

The Final Fantasy series is more fragmented than ever. Both developers and fanbase are more divided and unagreeable than ever, due to a lack of consistent direction for the series.

"Final Fantasy can be whatever it wants to be" is a true statement, but it has a direct impact.

Following this "direction" or lack thereof, results in fans unsure what to expect. The devoted fanbase continues to shrink, new fans become confused, and veterans are frustrated due to a lack of consistency.


Why I know this to be true:

Despite the fanbase never agreeing with me, and SE banning me on the XIV forums, I will still write this prediction. All my posts have only been to try to help SE and the Final Fantasy series. This post is no different.

I know this to be true, because I see all the trends of the series, reaction from fans, and I do not ignore the disgruntled fans.
I compile all the data to my personal memory and connect the dots based on sales, activity and just typical common sense.

The Evidence:

I never need "solid" evidence or proof, because I am not a news reporter, I do not work at Square-Enix.
I don't know or talk to anyone who does work there. Its pure common sense, and my track record has proven I'm correct time and time again, despite SE openly saying they are unware of the situations, and "fellow" fans outright opposing me directly and "passionately"

Since I'm not here to "debate" or "verify" my statements, I don't feel compelled to link every single source to every single statement. Especially since, SE has currently ceased to communicate with its English fanbase, and the fans always disagree with me. Constantly recording every statement, and every source is frankly entirely fruitless and unproductive. Thus I shall not provide it.

My track record + Solutions:

-I predicted all the way back in 2.0 that jobs were on the path to homogenization, and that fans, over time, would not enjoy this homogenization.

https://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/...getting-a-buff

(Solution would be to properly homogenize all jobs, but create extremely unique gameplay within the jobs to create at least a sense of variety. The issue now, is jobs are not properly homogenized, but also not even unique in their gameplay. Its just a pure mess now. They aren't even well balanced, and SE continues to waste dev time making constant adjustments and "reworks.")

-I predicted FFXIV would face massive issues with its steep vertical progression system.

FFXIV was forced to do a "stat squish" and likely will have to do another in the future. Once XIV neared the 2.4 mark I saw how steep the vertical progression jump was. Then once I saw it grow even more steep in 3.0 I knew right away they would face issues. Using extensive development time to continue this steep item level and damage increase, results in poor planning, and wasted development time by having to do even a single "Stat squish" if not multiple, to ensure sensible progression.


(Solution would have been to implement a damage cap, and raise that cap with each expansion or in at pre-planned intervals. Simply planning ahead and forecasting numbers and developing properly is another solution.)

-I predicted to a precise and exacting degree that 6.0 would face a massive login queue issue. What makes this even more shocking is Naoki Yoshida himself he had no way to know this would happen, and yet I predicted it years in advance, and had I been working at SE at the time, knowing they would implement this "login" system, as well as release the expanded free trial I would know 100% that this would be an issue. To hear Yoshida say he couldn't predict it, when I was able to predict it exactly and perfectly without the same information he had is very shocking to me.

https://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/threads/431085

What makes this even more "peculiar" is that Naoki Yoshida himself is quoted as saying he coulnd't have known this would happen, and yet, me as a player knew well ahead of time.

As producer, the responsibility for being unable to predict the current influx of new players falls to me

https://na.finalfantasyxiv.com/lodes...0acb6c23ccd07f

(Solution, my solution is baked into the post itself. SE had to stop the login of free trial players to circumvent this issue, and I literally included that as one way the issue could have been diverted. They should have purchased servers prior to the shortage of chips due to covid, because I knew before covid even really started. Had I known there was a plan to expand the free trial, I would have even halted/delayed this free trial change, and or had SE purchase more servers to prevent this. I also would have made the needed changes to prevent it, since I knew for a fact it would have been an issue.)

-I predicted that FFXIV had not surpassed FFXI in terms of profits, because I was well aware FFXIV was not retaining a sizable portion of its players.

I posted this in 2020
https://forum.square-enix.com/ffxi/t...765#post629765

Announced in 2012:
https://www.gamesradar.com/final-fan...-fantasy-ever/
Announced in October 2021
https://screenrant.com/final-fantasy...table-ff-game/

(Solution, this doesn't really need a solution, but I will admit I did not predict that WoW would fail to such a degree and result in FFXIV overtaking FFXI. Again, I don't work at SE or am not a news reporter, so knowing about WoW happenings is not my responsibility. If I worked at SE or was a news reporter, I am 100% certain I would have predicted this as well, as I would have my hands more in WoW happenings.)

-I predicted FF16 would sell 1-2 million units, 3 million max.

https://x.com/finalfantasyxvi/status...16160306823170

(Solution, FF16 should have been a proper RPG, not an action game. No I do not mean "turn based" I mean, that FF16 had less RPG mechanics, than even Dirge of Cerberus, as an example. There are numerous issues with FF16, and I am genuinely shocked it even sold, what I assume is roughly 3.3-3.5 million units now after the PC release. SE is pushing their fans onto PC with FFXI and FFXIV, and then create a PS5 exclusive game, that excludes diversity not only in terms of human diversity, but even a diverse and interesting cast, then choosing to make it an action game within an RPG genre series, making it "mature rating" and expecting "new" fans will be the target audience, and then even including slavery in the story.. That is just bad on bad on bad on very bad. I have no clue how it even did as well as it did. Pure luck. Naoki Yoshida is pure luck.)


-I predicted FFXIV 7.0 would be a vital expansion.

I predicted that FFXIV 7.0 be the major stepping stone in FFXIV's future. The fact that it is being met with extremely poor reception is the cause of my current "final" prediction, as well as the following prediction.

(Solution, FFXIV 7.0 should have been capped at 99, and brought a fresh new change to the "formula" as well as a gripping and fun story to go with it. Instead its a very poorly received story, and since FFXIV will very likely fail to rake in new players as it has been, it's going to have to do something to retain its current players. Which, news flash, it is not.)

-I predict FFXIV is on a downward trend.

This is a new prediction in line with my current and final prediction.

(Solution, speaking of luck, since I did not predict WoW taking a turn for the worse, I am aware that it has made strides, all not good, but according to some of its players, which I cannot confirm since I do not follow that game, strides in the right direction. This is very bad news for FFXIV, since the new story is not being well received, and the "formula" has become very stale to all its players, and many veterans have become completely fed up. I am very "impressed" for a lack of better words, that Naoki Yoshida has been so lucky. FFXIV 1.0 failing so hard, and them spinning this false narrative on its failure, and this fanatic "Salvation" story has put enough steam in the engine to drive them through to WoW's issues to warrant it finally becoming the most profitable game. If FFXIV 1.0 never existed, and WoW didn't stumble FFXIV would have never succeeded. Dawntrial is the first representation of FFXIV without its ties to 1.0, and since WoW isn't faltering we can see what FFXIV truly looks like now on its own, and its not good. I don't even have a solution at this point. FFXIV is in such bad shape, it would take extensive work and massive changes to undo everything that has been done at this point. FFXIV can no longer ride the train of wreckage of 1.0, and since WoW has already stumbled and its pulling players back, FFXIV won't have any failures to find success from anymore. It will have to completely rely upon itself.)

-I predict that Final Fantasy developers are not happy working at SE.

I don't work at SE, and I don't know anyone who does, but I get a strong sense, based on trends and the products coming from SE, that many developers in their personal lives do not feel fulfilled, and excited to work at SE. This is due to a lack of creativity, and innovating products being developed.

(Solution, SE needs to hire directors, and creative minds to inspire their developers to create new, exciting and interesting products. Trying to copy other companies trends, and successes, is not a healthy approach. Not only does it almost always ensure failure, but it looks bad from a fans perspective, and also creates a stale and uninteresting work environment. Video games are a "business" but it is also art, and art, inspiration, and creativity should always come first. If a painter does not love his painting, its harder for the painter and anyone else to appreciate the artwork.)

In conclusion:

I honestly don't expect SE to read this, if they do, I don't expect them or anyone to take it seriously, and lastly I most certainly do not anticipate that the forum users will agree with me. I'm not here for them.

I am here to voice my well experienced opinion, and showcase that despite my "reception" that I have always been correct. I also wish to express that my interest has always been to warn SE due to my expansive knowledge of the Final Fantasy series, in hopes they heed my words to guide them on the path to greater success.

I fear due to the behavior of the general fanbase, and their willingness to ignore very blatant warning signs, and desire to pretend everything is fine, and SE unwilling to also heed the warnings, and failing to communicate with its fans, will spell disaster.

So if you're a fan who has vehemently opposed me, and SE does in fact fail, I won't be here to say "I tried to warn you" because this has become near pointless.

I really shouldn't even taken the time, but I'm genuinely an honest, loyal, and caring person, even when I'm not "liked."

[Alhanelem]

(Yes, I reactivated just to reply to this post, though i did want to play again )_
First, the trolly, blunt response:
Yes, you shouldn't have taken the time. The problem isn't really your opinion by itself, but more that you came in here and made a giantic "debbie downer" post. You're posting on a forum populated largely by fans of the game (since you need a sub to post), and making doomsday predictions. Nobody is going to like that, even if they agree with some of your points. I myself have been accused of being a debbie downer on more than a few occasions, so I know exactly what it means.

Next, the more thoughtful response:

I really understand that you love and have a passion for the game. Everyone here does (Probably.) But you clearly don't understand what it means to run a large corporation like Square Enix. Even I don't pretend to know everything, but I have certain areas of at least basic understanding.

The first thing you don't understand is that Square Enix is a business. Every decision they make as a company is in some way designed to make them money or advance the business on some other level.

FFXI is well over 20 years old. Even in it's heyday it was only a moderately successful MMO, with WoW eclipsing it by massive margins. Now, if FFXI had caught on to the same degree that WoW did, they most likely would be investing more in it today, even with the existence of FFXIV. But FFXI never pulled the kinds of numbers that later MMOs did.

This means that most likely, even though the Producer himself would love to update and expand FFXI more if he could (I think he does care), Square Enix would conduct what's known as a cost-benefit analysis, or more simply pros and cons analysis. The point of this is to assess how much a task or project would cost, and the likelyhood of return on that investment. If SE thought that dumping a ton of money into FFXI would be a big payoff for them, they would do it. But FFXI's current state makes that unlikely. And crapping on SE's other projects (i.e. FFXIV) won't change that fact.

Square Enix is definitely not in its prime right now, but it's such a large corporation that it's not going anywhere anytime real soon. They have plenty of active projects of many types, and just because you don't like any of them doesn't mean they aren't or won't be successful.

No matter how much love and passion for the game, we have to understand that FFXI was never that huge and definitely isn't right now. And because of this, SE is unlikely to approve any sort of big investment in the game because it isn't likely to produce a correspondingly big return. Yes, in your fantasy world a new expansion or other big update would magically make all the players come back, but reality paints a different picture. Audolin was so not a success that some planned content got scrapped. It wasn't because Audolin was bad, either (at least personally I enjoyed it). But in order to justify investing in the game, they have to see some evidence that doing so would bring them money- just placating existing players really is not enough. This is probably why SE felt like they could make more money making an FFXI themed raid in FFXIV than they could making new content for the game itself.

------------

The only other part of your post I want to comment on is the "horizontal" vs "vertical" progression thing. There are pros and cons to each, you try to position FFXI's horizontal progression as simply better, but this just isn't the case.

Sure it's cool that you can collect various items in the game and have them still be useful years later, and expand your abilities without lots of power creep, but this has problems of its own. Inventory management becomes a nightmare. Even with a much better UI than FFXI currently has, it would still be irritating. Players need more space which means a larger data size for characters and more data that needs to be sent to and from the server, which creates technical challenges. And from a gameplay standpoint, the huge number of different stats and effects that FFXI has added over the years in support of this "horizontal" progression has made gearing in FFXI an incredibly complex endeavor. There is such a thing as too much depth, and I think at the time that FFXI finally decided to raise its level cap, it was already too daunting for many players, limiting the likelyhood of new players sticking around, with the game catering solely to its veterans. That said, it does do a lot more for the regulars who have been around a long time and gotten to know all of its intricate details.

"Vertical" progression on the other hand is much simpler. It's also more addictive and likely to retain players for a number of reasons. You don't need massive amounts of inventory space, managing it is a lot simpler, you don't have to think about as many stats and attributes, and you constantly feel like you're getting stronger, giving you a sense of character advancement and development. The main downside is of course, less depth. But for the average joe that doesn't want playing a game to be a math project, games with vertical progresison are far more appealing as they can focus on the game mechanics instead of gear.

Neither one of these is simply better. But they do affect different players differently. People who like depth of gameplay will like the "horizontal" style more because there is a lot more depth and strategy in gear. the "vertical" games trade that depth of gear for depth of game mechanics. Your comments about things like FFXIV's stat squish are kind of pointless, as ultimately that doesn't really hurt or affect pretty much anyone.


But really, if you didn't expect anyone to read this or even agree with it, what point was there other than maybe to bait me into resubscribing?

Like I said before, your passion is evident in this post and that's certainly something to be respected. But passion, hopes and dreams do not automatically mean spending a lot of money on FFXI would be good business sense.

[Beastorizer]

So basically F XIV? If so, I agree with everything you said OP......

Think that is something the forums can agree upon, even though they rarely ever agree........XIV is responsible for a lot of SE financial woes. All of them? No.......But you don't get rewarded for failing the fourth grade, then getting it right the 2nd time........

That was a lot of production money.....more than the Avengers iirc.......

Of course XIV hurt SE....It is illogical to say otherwise because they conceded such by shutting her down.