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  1. #1
    Player Coffeegood's Avatar
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    Bismarck
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    PLD Lv 99

    High Tier Battlefield ★The Wyrm God

    The drop rates are worse than what we experienced pre patch with the 10 merit /per kills upon data of 21 10-merit pt. fights vs 21 30-merit pt. fights. I know the data pool is small but the data is not anecdotal at this point and warrants further investigation please.

    Very Difficult:
    Pre patch; Earring x6 Ammo x9 Ringx6, Cloak, Body, Dagger
    After patch; Earring Ammo Ring or nothing depending on new member we take in from shell. No Weapons, No Body/Head Armor
    Edit: 36 post patch fights still same result here,
    (1)
    Last edited by Coffeegood; 07-26-2021 at 01:25 PM.

  2. #2
    Player Alhanelem's Avatar
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    Tahngarthor
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    Shiva
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    Gambler's fallacy.

    Say some 1% drop rate increased to 1.5 or 2%. You're not going to ancedotally see that difference in a small sample of runs. You need hundreds at a minimum to suggest a pattern and many more to "prove" it.
    (0)

  3. #3
    Player Coffeegood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alhanelem View Post
    Gambler's fallacy.

    Say some 1% drop rate increased to 1.5 or 2%. You're not going to ancedotally see that difference in a small sample of runs. You need hundreds at a minimum to suggest a pattern and many more to "prove" it.
    Evidence is on ffxiah forums if you add an accumulative analysis in a spreadsheet, but I would be happy to hear your experiences with this fight that might be constructive as well.
    (0)
    Last edited by Coffeegood; 07-25-2021 at 02:36 PM.

  4. #4
    Player Alhanelem's Avatar
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    Shiva
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coffeegood View Post
    Evidence is on ffxiah forums if you add an accumulative analysis in a spreadsheet, but I would be happy to hear your experiences with this fight that might be constructive as well.
    The evidence is pretty lacking. FFXI is always like this, you can't do a couple fights, get shit drops, and claim drop rate shenanigans.
    (0)

  5. #5
    Player Coffeegood's Avatar
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    PLD Lv 99
    So you're saying they made the adjusments equal to the merit point increase to increase drop rates 3 fold the origional? Or you're mad that there's not a table of data on a platter and you want to appease the devs by playing devils advocate?
    (0)
    Last edited by Coffeegood; 07-26-2021 at 10:00 AM.

  6. #6
    Player Alhanelem's Avatar
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    Tahngarthor
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    Shiva
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    No, I don't know the exact numbers because they didn't release them. We only have their claim that they increased them, and a few people with small sample sizes employing the gambler's fallacy.

    Your post is incredible. "Appease the devs?"

    I don't work for SE, I'm not in cahoots with them on a cover-up or whatever other mad conspiracy you can come up with. The devs don't apologize for a bad situation and make an emergency maintenance to address it and then make up the whole story. Who would do that? What would their motivation be? Do you think someone at SE asked, "Hmm, what can we do to piss off players today? I know, let's say we're going to increase the drop rates but actually lower them?"

    Show me data of 1000 runs before and 1000 runs after. Show me that the apparent rarest items before the update are rarer now. Obviously something has to give to increase the drop rate of any given item, you have to lower something else because it has to add up to 100% (per pool), but normally that means lowering the most common items to make the least common ones higher.

    Data. D A T A. Post it here, and post a sufficient sample size. a couple dozen or even a hundred or two is not enough.

    I am not a white knight, but I'm not going to assume the devs are a bunch of liars either. You're the one(s) making the accusations, therefore the burden of proof lies on you.
    (0)
    Last edited by Alhanelem; 07-26-2021 at 12:27 PM.

  7. #7
    Player Coffeegood's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alhanelem View Post
    No, I don't know the exact numbers because they didn't release them. We only have their claim that they increased them, and a few people with small sample sizes employing the gambler's fallacy.

    Your post is incredible. "Appease the devs?"

    I don't work for SE, I'm not in cahoots with them on a cover-up or whatever other mad conspiracy you can come up with. The devs don't apologize for a bad situation and make an emergency maintenance to address it and then make up the whole story. Who would do that? What would their motivation be? Do you think someone at SE asked, "Hmm, what can we do to piss off players today? I know, let's say we're going to increase the drop rates but actually lower them?"

    Show me data of 1000 runs before and 1000 runs after. Show me that the apparent rarest items before the update are rarer now. Obviously something has to give to increase the drop rate of any given item, you have to lower something else because it has to add up to 100% (per pool), but normally that means lowering the most common items to make the least common ones higher.

    Data. D A T A. Post it here, and post a sufficient sample size. a couple dozen or even a hundred or two is not enough.

    I am not a white knight, but I'm not going to assume the devs are a bunch of liars either. You're the one(s) making the accusations, therefore the burden of proof lies on you.
    I have checked out your character on ah and 1 REMA 119 a couple 99 jobs with Main BLM.. I just think that I would like to hear from someone with a little more experience in the game critique an educated theory instead of a neighsayer with less time put in attempt to critique me with self fabricated lies to fit your narrative. It seems you have a record here of almost 8000 posts and a lot of contrary arguments. Also can conclude this is your lively hood and ego and passion here in the forums but I'm really trying to get this issue looked at and you should probably drop the ego here. There's ton's of same experiences on forums with the same results and due to rules here unable to add certain links which benefits your argument but please do the research. I havn't called anyone liars like you accused me of but it seems like someone here is a little hurt and making his own accusations to try to denigrate my legitimacy. Just trying to get a possible glitched fight looked at. My Google doc's Data pool is over expected limitations as of tonight. Check-mate
    (0)
    Last edited by Coffeegood; 07-26-2021 at 01:33 PM.

  8. #8
    Player Coffeegood's Avatar
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    Only posted the information with the best intentions I wish others would have constructive good intentions instead of trying to fight people and demand 1000 fight records before they call you a dilluted believer in a fallacy. Time machines don't exist to my knowledge and if they did then maybe this would be possible to get this data from the PRE-patched emergency update that ruined the drop rates for this fight. Unfortunately this data is all we have and it is obvious because of the amount of people experiencing same results over the large population across servers has to mean something. Glad this guy doesn't work for SE.
    (0)

  9. #9
    Player Alhanelem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coffeegood View Post
    I have checked out your character on ah and 1 REMA 119 a couple 99 jobs with Main BLM.. I just think that I would like to hear from someone with a little more experience in the game critique an educated theory instead of a neighsayer with less time put in attempt to critique me with self fabricated lies to fit your narrative. It seems you have a record here of almost 8000 posts and a lot of contrary arguments. Also can conclude this is your lively hood and ego and passion here in the forums but I'm really trying to get this issue looked at and you should probably drop the ego here. There's ton's of same experiences on forums with the same results and due to rules here unable to add certain links which benefits your argument but please do the research. I havn't called anyone liars like you accused me of but it seems like someone here is a little hurt and making his own accusations to try to denigrate my legitimacy. Just trying to get a possible glitched fight looked at. My Google doc's Data pool is over expected limitations as of tonight. Check-mate
    Oh, so you're judging me by outdated FFXIAH info? I don't main BLM? I don't even have it max level. Check mate? You are using looking up my character data as the basis for your argument that has literally nothing to do with my character. You have zero clue what I do in game and you want to make judgements like that?

    You're the one who's check mated, you don't have anything to back up your argument with and you resort to passive-aggressive personal attacks.
    (0)

  10. #10
    Player Alhanelem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coffeegood View Post
    Only posted the information with the best intentions I wish others would have constructive good intentions instead of trying to fight people and demand 1000 fight records before they call you a dilluted believer in a fallacy. Time machines don't exist to my knowledge and if they did then maybe this would be possible to get this data from the PRE-patched emergency update that ruined the drop rates for this fight. Unfortunately this data is all we have and it is obvious because of the amount of people experiencing same results over the large population across servers has to mean something. Glad this guy doesn't work for SE.
    I'm not a "believer" in a fallacy. The gambler's fallacy is a real logical fallacy and you are committing it. You're right, time machines don't exist, but people clearly did the fight before the emergency maintenance and I'm sure some people kept track of their drops.

    You need data to make radical accusations like them lowering drop rates when they said they were raising them. You have no data, so you looked up my character on FFXIAH (which is not current, again, I can't even get it to update) and used it to make childish attacks.

    Ancedotal observations are not evidence. Period. You. Need. Data. You thinking the drop rates are worse because you didn't get the item you wanted fast enough (or whatever your reason for posting) is not proff that they actually did.
    (0)
    Last edited by Alhanelem; 07-26-2021 at 03:14 PM.

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