I approached this update with an open mind as the drop rates mostly determined how the changes would affect the difficulty in obtaining Black Belt and other HQHNM drops. Since the update, I've fought twenty The Horns of War KSNMs. Out of the twenty Behemoths that I popped (from the Beastly Shanks that were obtained), only one Savory Shank dropped. All Behemoth fights had at least TH8 proc'd on them, often TH9 or higher (up to TH11.) The King Behemoth that I popped did drop a Behemoth's Tongue, although this really isn't enough to say anything about the drop rate from King Behemoth or other HQHNMs. My anecdotal observations of what others have reported puts it at somewhere around a 50% drop rate.
For those curious about what my 1/20 drop rate means, here's some confidence intervals for you.
Code:
Confidence Drop Rate Interval
99% 0.03%~31.71%
95% 0.13%~24.87%
90% 0.26%~21.61%
85% 0.39%~19.59%
80% 0.53%~18.10%
75% 0.67%~16.90%
70% 0.81%~15.89%
65% 0.96%~15.02%
60% 1.11%~14.24%
55% 1.27%~13.54%
50% 1.43%~12.90%
If you're unfamiliar with statistics, I'll explain what these numbers mean. The first column, the confidence level, is a measurement of how sure you are that the true drop rate is within some interval. So the first row says we can be 99% sure that, based on my data alone, the true drop rate on Savory Shank is between 0.03% and 31.71%.
One thing worth noting is that because we do not have an accurate way of assessing the effects of Treasure Hunter on drop rates, I ignored any affect that it might have on the drops. This means that if Treasure Hunter does increase the drop rate on Savory Shank, then the true drop rate on Savory Shank will be even lower than these confidence intervals predict. Either way, if you assume that Treasure Hunter doesn't lower the drop rate on Savory Shank (seems like a safe assumption to me), then you can still assume that the base drop rates will be no higher than what these confidence intervals predict.
I'll do a little bit more math to maybe put how crappy this really is in perspective. I'll give the drop rate the benefit of the doubt and chalk up my observed 1/20 drop rate to extremely bad luck and assume a 1/5 drop rate on Savory Shank (note: if the drop rate was truly 1/5, then bad luck on my level would only occur 5.76% of the time, so it probably isn't even 1/5!) Over a hundred KS99 runs have led me to believe that the drop rate on Black Belt items from the KSNM is about 1/5. If you assume that the anecdotal 1/2 drop rate for HQHNM dropping Black Belt items is also accurate, you're left with a single Themis Orb producing at least one Black Belt item 28% of the time (as opposed to 20% of the time that was before.)
In regards to prepatch HNM camping. There wasn't much competition on Adamantoise at all and it was something that most players could solo. Aspi was a somewhat fun fight if it was up unclaimed. You could just ask your friends to come help you kill it. People did camp Behemoth for the chance at King Behemoth, although mostly it was for the chance at Defending Ring and you could usually offer to buy the Behemoth Tongue if it dropped. Fafnir was still lightly camped, usually by players trying to get Ridill or just to have fun killing it. You could often buy it from them too. I actually walked into Dragon's Aery one day to see Nidhogg unclaimed.
My impressions thus far are not great. They removed a method to obtain Black Belt that was very convenient for a large group of players. It's been replaced by a system that mostly tantalizes players even more so than getting the drop from KS99. The only 'upside' is that the new method is tied into KS99 making the whole process more linear. I wouldn't say it's more convenient though, if my ambition were to acquire a Black Belt I think I would much prefer the old way over this.
I don't want to turn this into a sob story, but perhaps put this into perspective with what Monks will be facing these days. The changes have more or less brought out the selfishness of the average player. Everyone wants the Black Belt items even if they don't have Monk leveled. They also want the HNM pop item too, so the whole double chance thing really only applies to your orb. The only way I was even able to acquire twenty Beastly Shanks so quickly was to duo the KSNM (Monk + White Mage => 3 minute Chevlnik kill) while paying anybody who used an orb 600K so I could get the Beastly Shank (they kept all other nine drops, including any Black Belt items.) So I have shelled out 12M gil thus far to pop one King Behemoth.
You might be one of the lucky ones who has friends willing to use their orbs. This seems unlikely though. I have several groups of friends and are all either out of seals or won't sell me theirs because they all want a Black Belt or other HQHNM items. Either way, relying on friends for their orbs is by no means practical for obtaining a Black Belt. It's unrealistic given the state of the game. The overwhelming majority of players are simply going to have to go on KS99 runs and buy them from other people going on the runs. You'll probably end up paying more than you did prepatch now too. If you're opposed to buying them for some reason, then you're more screwed than you were before the patch because you can't camp HNM like before.
I plan on continuing to do the Horns of War KS99 until I either run out of gil or until I get a Defending Ring. I'll post my results on Savory Shank drop rates here. I won't be collecting data from anybody else because I think it introduces reporting bias (people tend to report extraordinary good or bad drop rates more often than others.)
Either way, if Square Enix ever intended to ease the requirements to obtain Black Belt or reduce the absurdity of kings in some way, this is far from it. If there's anything that should be complained about in recent patches, it's the awful HQHNM pop item drop rates.
Originally Posted by Gokku
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