Quote Originally Posted by geekgirl101 View Post
Yeah I've not had any luck with any of the skill items except on a different character on a 2nd account who just got lucky. I ended up buying one with the bonanza marbles. Have yet to see the magic one drop but now it's to late as I ended up levelling all my magic skills to max trying to get it.

I would say both you guys are correct in your assessment. The drop rate of the skill/crafting items is far too low and how many times you succeed in guessing the right digits is a major factor. I would guestimate the chances of finding dungeon rares from caskets are 0.001%. Thief tools supposedly give you an extra hint but the hints aren't very helpful especially if used as a last attempt effort and if you're still having to go through several hundred boxes that's a lot of thief tools to waste.
.001%? you're telling me 1 in 100,000 chance? no way. Even if you meant .1% which is 1 in 1,000 that is still way too high.