Hard to tell exactly with that run on but sounds like you are still tier 1 though you should be able to hit tier 2. As such your hq rate should only be around 5-10% which some small unknown increase from the ring and possibly the rusk. So 2/16 is right in there and 1/48 isn't exactly that far out. Statistics are a cruel mistress you have to take a much longer road with much much much higher sample size to try to reach the conclusion you are asking. Also day/direction is a myth