The Flame Geode Thread...... Again.

[RAIST]

That is how!

and again.. that chart is a limited sampling and doesn't completely reflect the weather patterns...fire was just in the forecast again for lightsday in altepa--for the fourth KNOWN time in this cycle during the first week of May.

That is 4 forecasts during the first week of May in game: 5/2, 5/3, 5/5, and 5/7---4 out of 6 days (or hours) with fire in the forecast. That chart only shows 1 instance near first and last weeks of the month for altepa and one mid May for the Cape, missing 3 instances right off the bat just for the month of May.

Again.... it follows a pattern, and if you put effort into tracking it....you can predict a lot of the times it will pop (to within a 1 RL hour window at best, one RL week window of high frequencey at worst). Over a week in advance, I knew ~20 seperate 58 minute windows during the past 9 days when weather would be in the forecast because I documented a section of the cycle and saw it repeating. Those instances started lining up with my notes as far back as 8/23 (RL Calendar).

Edit: I have two dates scribbled on the side... think they are for the next game year in the cycle. If that is true, fire will be in the forecast again for two lightsdays on Sept. 25--one lightsday starting around Midnight Eastern time, the next around 8 AM Eastern. Unfortunately, that's a Tuesday and not a good day for me...but if it was, I could check the forecast Monday night, perhaps hit it then, and/or hit it in the morning if I was up. That's almost a 2 week notice of two opportunities if those were in fact in line with the next game year for the cycle.

[Camiie]

and again.. that chart is a limited sampling and doesn't completely reflect the weather patterns...fire was just in the forecast again for lightsday in altepa--for the fourth KNOWN time in this cycle during the first week of May.

Isn't your post just limited sampling as well?

[RAIST]

Isn't your post just limited sampling as well?

Yes...but everyone keeps referring to that chart as definitive proof of how scarce certain weather is...no matter how many times contrary data is presented. For instance... 2 forecasts of light in an entire game year? And I just saw a 5th forecast of fire for the month of May (Watersday on May 27 in Altepa, one I didn't have in my notes). Yet that chart only shows 3 forecasts total for the month of May--2 for Altpep and one for the Cape.

The bigger point is that it is a repeating pattern. What that means in a nutshell....whether you have a complete data set or a partial one, once you gather enough data to be able to identify when things are in line again, you have a forecast to follow for however big your data set is. More or less, your success in hunting this weather boils down to your level of commitment (or lack of commitment) to track it.

[FrankReynolds]

Yes...but everyone keeps referring to that chart as definitive proof of how scarce certain weather is...no matter how many times contrary data is presented. For instance... 2 forecasts of light in an entire game year? And I just saw a 5th forecast of fire for the month of May (Watersday on May 27 in Altepa, one I didn't have in my notes). Yet that chart only shows 3 forecasts total for the month of May--2 for Altpep and one for the Cape.

The bigger point is that it is a repeating pattern. What that means in a nutshell....whether you have a complete data set or a partial one, once you gather enough data to be able to identify when things are in line again, you have a forecast to follow for however big your data set is. More or less, your success in hunting this weather boils down to your level of commitment (or lack of commitment) to track it.

I'm not sure what your motivation is / was for tracking weather, but I assure you that the idea of doing that would never even occur to 99.99% of the rest of the worlds population, let alone be considered something that should be required. None of these weapons are strong enough to warrant that kind of planning.

EDIT: and before dummies (not talking about raist here) come in and say "Y SO LAZY?!?"... I have several magian weapons / empys and have no need for flame geodes. I just recognize when something is broken and want to fix it.

[Camiie]

The bigger point is that it is a repeating pattern. What that means in a nutshell....whether you have a complete data set or a partial one, once you gather enough data to be able to identify when things are in line again, you have a forecast to follow for however big your data set is. More or less, your success in hunting this weather boils down to your level of commitment (or lack of commitment) to track it.

But how much of a commitment should one really have to make for a non-legendary class weapon? Yes a handful of these weapons are very powerful, and many of them are not. Yet apparently we all must become virtual meteorologists in order to have a chance at making one (good weapon or not) via farming. You're saying it looks as though fire weather is more common than we suspected, but that's not saying much. If it were twice as common it would still be far behind the others. It's not like people aren't checking the forecasts at all. I do even if I'm going for what's generally common weather.

Still, and maybe I'm a little extreme on this, I don't believe in content (other than holiday specific events) that requires one to log-in during a specific window of time to have a chance to get it done. I think that's one of the worst ideas ever to come out of MMO design. But, obviously we have such content and we always will, so I would ask that SE at least try to minimize it by having more windows of opportunity available so I can choose one that fits my schedule rather than having to work my life around the game's schedule.

[Raksha]

And I just saw a 5th forecast of fire for the month of May (Watersday on May 27 in Altepa, one I didn't have in my notes). Yet that chart only shows 3 forecasts total for the month of May--2 for Altpep and one for the Cape.

Even if fire weather were twice as common as the chart shows, it'd still be too rare.