Well, the problem is that over half the jobs in the game (every job that relies on physical damage, ranged or not) can benefit from a fire weapon in one way or another, while only very few benefit from light/shadow weapons.
Light trial weapons are mostly just done for cure potency staves, but light weather is always active in Nyzul and you recently revived Nyzul activity. That could explain the higher supply of light geodes relative to fire geodes.
As for dark weather, not a lot of people are making dark path staves. I would guess that it's more or less only summoners who make them for fenrir/diabolos, but the summoners who bother with making dark staves also often make staves for the other elements as well, therefore these don't skew the demand from one element to another as significantly as the 13(14 incl blue mage) physical DD jobs in the game.
Additionally, the elemental stave paths are easily shared between some of the mage jobs. Someone who is BLM, WHM and SCH can use the same staves for all three jobs. Someone who is DRG, WAR and DRK needs a polearm, greataxe and greatsword (maybe a scythe too), and there's a big chance they'll all be fire path. As you can see, gearing three melee jobs with a "good" nonempy weapon demands (15+40)*3 flame geodes. Gearing the three listed mages requires 15+40 light and 15-40 shadow geodes.
As for the rest of the elements, earth, water, wind, lightning and ice are all relatively common.
I think that a decent way to "solve" this would be for example to let fire weather show up more often in for example ifrit's cauldron. I know this zone is linked to the jungle region, but seriously, at certain points in ifrit's cauldron, you're staring straight into red-glowing lava. It would make complete sense to just detach Ifrit's cauldron from the region it is in, (weather-wise), and let it have fire weather a lot more often than Yhoator Jungle.
The same can be said about about Lebros Cavern. I mean look at it, you can see the liquid rock, the temperature in there must be several hundred degrees celsius, it should be too hot for human-like life forms to even be there, yet we don't get frequent fire weather.
The only elemental magian trial path that might be as popular as the str paths could be evasion daggers/katanas, considering some might want to dualwield them, and considering that even if you have an empy weapon for dagger/katana wielding jobs, you can still off-hand an evasion weapon. The price of breeze geodes and garudites is still higher than many other geodes, but because wind weather is a lot more common than fire, the prices are still held somewhat in check. I imagine if wind weather was as rare as fire, we'd be looking at 2-4 times more expensive breeze geodes.



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