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  1. #1
    Player
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    334
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

    I love this shit.... Hear it all the time:

    "I always craft on/facing X day/direction and I get X results."
    If you always do it... Then how do you know if it works when you don't?

    "I got X HQ in a row on a <element> synth and it's <unfavorable day/direction to craft>! must be a freak accident. That's funny cause I didn't HQ even once on <assumed favorable crystal day>."

    Or the inverse:

    "That's wierd I just critical broke/nq'd a <element> synth X times in a row, and it's <favorable element day/direction>, must be a fluke."
    Yeah, that must be it...

    People see what they want to see.
    Does it hurt to do it? Naw. Preaching it as fact when it's been proven in the more negative light as "bullshit" and the more positive light as "Not significant enough to produce results", is dumb.
    (3)
    If you don't understand why Haste is so important, or if you don't think it is:
    http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxi/threads/1847-Haste-and-You...-A-guide-to-the-misinformed.

  2. #2
    Player Kristal's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    1,552
    Character
    Kristal
    World
    Bismarck
    Main Class
    PUP Lv 99
    Quote Originally Posted by Frost View Post
    Does it hurt to do it? Naw.
    Actually, it can. If your understanding of directional crafting is wrong, then it could be having exactly the opposite effect.
    Only when you know that it has NO effect, can you say that it doesn't hurt to do so.
    (1)
    "Puppetmaster was our last best hope for peace. It failed.
    Now it's our last best hope.. for victory!"

  3. #3
    Player Godofgods's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    711
    Character
    Godofgods
    World
    Odin
    Main Class
    DRK Lv 99
    Quote Originally Posted by Frost View Post
    Or the inverse:

    "That's wierd I just critical broke/nq'd a <element> synth X times in a row, and it's <favorable element day/direction>, must be a fluke."
    Yeah, that must be it...
    Nothing is quite as annoying in game as when that happens. One time when i was at 100ww i was doing a lvl 60 synth for GP. Limited mets, and i fail three times in a row!
    (1)

  4. #4
    Player Kristal's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    1,552
    Character
    Kristal
    World
    Bismarck
    Main Class
    PUP Lv 99
    Quote Originally Posted by Godofgods View Post
    Nothing is quite as annoying in game as when that happens. One time when i was at 100ww i was doing a lvl 60 synth for GP. Limited mets, and i fail three times in a row!
    Try crit failing 3 of 4 arrowwood lumber synths at WW 100... I'm more inclined to believe that the RNG favors similar results within a short timeframe (due to a bad seed routine) then direction. Sometimes it's good, sometimes bad.. (usually the bad for me, and the good for the guy next to me, but that's Life in Vana'diel for you...)
    (1)
    "Puppetmaster was our last best hope for peace. It failed.
    Now it's our last best hope.. for victory!"