I think he meant using a Beestinger to avoid dealing too much damage, for cases where you want the highest possible TH without killing the mob too fast. Otherwise you'd be correct, though.
I assumed exponential decrease, namely by p*(d^x) where x is the TH difference, p the original upgrade chance (at x=0) and d the amount by which it decreases with level. Above I gave an example for p=0.01 (1%) and d=0.75 (75% decrease with each level). d is calculated by p_(x+1)/p_x, and if that value is > 0.77 then Beestinger (or 150 delay in general) will be better, if it's < 0.77 then Thief's Knife will win. I just don't think the first case is very likely. I wouldn't be surprised if it was 50%.


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