I still think the closest analogy is Shinryu. Abyssea zones were open to all, everyone was fighting in them, then SE tied a storyline to certain mobs that had to be beaten and certain CS's in order to reach the final zone of Abyssea. Then people did them, even though they weren't constantly being killed or shouted for, and in a month or two, Shinryu access was a joke.

So too, Provenance access will be.