Eleven Fajin boots!

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Originally Posted by Alhanelem

I'm actually thinking there might be a pattern and that the drops aren't totally random. Maybe it has something to do with performance, IDK.

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I really hope they're not doing something like this. I'm pretty much relegated to BRD for all of Voidwatch, which means that my damage count is almost always 0. For any given weakness, I've got a maximum of three songs that can trigger it (for most elements, 1), and my one damage song won't land on anything at all in VW (thanks so much, SE--remind me again why we got a seventh tier on that one?). So mostly what I'm doing is desperately trying to buff people who are being tossed hither and yon by AoE knockback while trying not to get killed by the same, and trying to hit weaknesses which are probably not mine because there are 13 billion BLU and BLM triggers. It sucks enough listening to people after the fight gabbling about how much damage they managed to do (the lowly BRD never gets mentioned) without thinking that SE might be punishing me for not "doing enough" to the thing we're fighting--whatever the heck that might mean.

Pseudorandom drops are for all intents and purposes random, I've seen no rhyme or reason to the distribution of the 10 bodies and miscellaneous other drops we've received. To believe otherwise is almost certainly falling prey to the human tendency to seek patterns in randomness.

EDIT: before someone jumps on "10 bodies", we have done a lot of Voidwatch. We haven't even seen every body either, let alone any of the Zilart path HQ weapons.

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To believe otherwise is almost certainly falling prey to the human tendency to seek patterns in randomness.

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We seek patterns in randomness because
1) Not as many things are truly random as we think, and computers are technically incapable of being truly random
2) It is more difficult to prove that something IS random than it is to prove that something isn't.

Of course, a day's worth of voidwatch runs by one group is far, far from an adequate sample from which to derive any kind of reasonable conclusion.

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Originally Posted by Alhanelem

We seek patterns in randomness because
1) Not as many things are truly random as we think,

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Not going to get into a determinism argument here, though that has nothing to do with why we seek patterns.

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and computers are technically incapable of being truly random

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Originally Posted by Nightfyre

Pseudorandom drops are for all intents and purposes random

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Think I already covered that. "For all intents and purposes" because the difference between the two is trivial unless you're able to manipulate the pseudorandom option, which is probably a no-go in FFXI given that it's handled server-side.

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2) It is more difficult to prove that something IS random than it is to prove that something isn't.

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Again, this has nothing to do with why we seek patterns. We seek patterns as a survival tactic, as do many other animals.

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Originally Posted by Alhanelem

If you want them to nerf the drop rate into oblivion, sure. Otherwise, it's not going to happen.

Basically, it can be one of two things:

Super-low drop rate and normal treasure pool distribution
relatively high drop rate (by comparison at least) and item goes to random people.

Sorry to be Negative Nancy here. But whatever the solution, they're going to be sure you have to do the fight a similar number of times.

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Umm you do realize that they ALREADY HAVE A NERFED DROP RATE. Nerfed as in less then 1%. When you defeat a NM you get 18 treasure pools generated, meaning if you see an item once per six runs, then your talking 1/108. If you get a rare item once per 9 runs, then your talking 1/162.

What we have now is the absolute worst of both worlds, random loot distribution combined with ridiculously low drop rate.

SE can't make it worse.

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Originally Posted by Alhanelem

We seek patterns in randomness because
1) Not as many things are truly random as we think, and computers are technically incapable of being truly random
2) It is more difficult to prove that something IS random than it is to prove that something isn't.

Of course, a day's worth of voidwatch runs by one group is far, far from an adequate sample from which to derive any kind of reasonable conclusion.

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For one this is based on the combined experience of ever poster on BG and Alla and this forum combined. We know their less then 1%, no need to attempt to shove sunshine up our arses.

And RNG's can be made random, measuring the electric potential between two interconnects inside a CPU down to the sixth decimal place is considered random. Typically RNG's have their seeds salted with entropy accumulated inside an entropy buffer, /dev/random on a Unix OS. For all intents and purposes it's considered random as it is fundamentally unpredictable. The act of trying to read the entropy buffer or the quantum charge would result it in changing and thus be useless for deterministic predictions.

67 likes, which is about as much as an update from the devs...

Shouldn't that get some fucking attention?

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SE can't make it worse.

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Just watch them.

Are they going to lower our .3% drop rates to .15%!?!?!? OOOHHHHH NOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

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Originally Posted by saevel

Umm you do realize that they ALREADY HAVE A NERFED DROP RATE. Nerfed as in less then 1%. When you defeat a NM you get 18 treasure pools generated, meaning if you see an item once per six runs, then your talking 1/108. If you get a rare item once per 9 runs, then your talking 1/162.

What we have now is the absolute worst of both worlds, random loot distribution combined with ridiculously low drop rate.

SE can't make it worse.

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They said they plan to boost drop rates.