It's not quite 0%, but it is very small.
Most of the people a classic 75 era server would entice back is the old vets who left years ago due to aby. And they likely wouldn't stay very long because half left that age because they were bored, the other half left because they were bored and didn't like how aby changed things, and the new CoD crowd that was trying the game, granted, you can't get away from those people, they're a dime a dozen on the net now, and they don't care about you or what you need or the alliance, their out for themselves, that would be FFXI's influx group, and getting 18-32 people to cooperate was hard back then, imagine doing it with a few dozen entitled every wo(man) for themselves attitude gamers have these days?
The odds of having any sort of new player influx are extremely low, you might get some players, a few thousand at first, trickling down to few hundred maybe over 6 months on such a server, but nothing that could sustain such a server for long. The reason being several parts (in addition to the above), 1: the engine. Most of the complaints I hear from people who've not tried XI or thought about it but decided against it, are over the graphics being too dated to play, part of why XIV has such a big emphasis on beauty, but lacks in so many other areas I bet my fellows here could help me write a book about it.
2: MMO's are dying. They partly because old ones are running their course due to lack of interest by new and old players, they've been out so long that only the die hard fans still play consistently with but a few new players. But the biggest reason is your last point: "Every MMO under the sun is copying WoW." And if you notice, 90% of the games that do are effectively failures, they go F2P within a year, and effectively die within 2years, because they're nothing new, they're the same rehashes and their too easy, there's no investment in these MMO's at all, no reason to stay, so players don't, this is why WoW dropped 3m subs just after an expansion pack.
But the additional problem is, except korean mmo's there's nothing in the western portfolio that has that sort of value, esp long term, so MMO's are dying across the board as players become less and less interested in them. This same problem is starting to crop up in mainstream gaming too. Mobile games are struggling to hold players, AAA titles are slowly declining from most of the major houses with but few exceptions, because their all the same thing, and they all lack a reward for time investment (or don't have time investment at all) why do you think tougher games are starting to get more attention? Even korean MMO's are starting to get more attention then their western counterparts. I know many XIV players are they say the same as we hear in every other modern MMO: There's nothing to do, there's nothing worth staying for.
Nothing lasts forever, esp in the MMO world.
3: MMO's put so much focus into the easy fast grind that WoW taught us and that favors the rapid risers in order to keep them interested, that they've forgotten their main income comes from those who are average or casual players, and there's nothing for them. The rapid risers to cap are always done in a few months, partly because the way up is so easy and simple, and partly because they like it, but they make up a small portion of the average player base of an MMO. Average players and more casual players make up the bulk, but they have so little to do but level because there's nothing to do other then that because the game caters to those who hit cap in a couple weeks.
True FFXI is one of those games, as are several others such as EQ, that have survived the ages, but as I said, it's aging, and due to it's original design, SE can't keep it updating as is for much longer without going back and re-writing half the game, which would cost a lot more then it takes to run it, and likely would increase those costs afterwards that the game isn't able to bring in, or isn't likely to bring in even with a new influx of players, because getting the word out would require a marketing campaign and those costs millions more on top of rebuilding the game even if they used XIV's engine and worked it up for FFXI.
A campaign to upgrade FFXI like that would need to bring subs up to around 500-600k+ to get SE to be willing to put in the money (likely closer to a million), and nobody can promise, or expect, even a 1/4th of that, because there's just not enough players left with interest in MMO's, and esp not old ones with a face lift. True, a classic server might entice some people if XI got updated, but you'd again have the old problem of: Losing so much content, and could FFXI's extreme grind from the old days push people away again? MMO's these days can't swing to far one way of the other, towards extreme grind, nor towards very easy, it requires a balance, one FFXI is about as close to as we can get, only now. If you take that away, you run back into the same problem that started all of this years ago.
i just don't see a classic server working.
Maybe it works fine for those private groups, who can be more particular about who's in the game then SE can, but the odds of it working large scale on public servers, are very small, as is the long term interest group. I would give it, at most, 3 months before the classic server started to fail on itself, and that's not really enough to warrant the expense. This thread is up to 17 pages, and I'd bet most of it is the same small group of people arguing, which lends credit to this not being a good idea.
The only way to truly determine interest is a poll SE sends through our account emails for all FFXI account holders, and see what happens.
But I can't foresee that giving results interested groups here are seeking, and certainly not enough to give SE pause.
