Oh okay, sorry. I misread your post, it sounded like you just did the KS99s and only got NQ pops.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gokku
Black Belt items [dev1009]
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05-12-2011, 04:29 AMGreatguardian
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05-12-2011, 01:30 PMGokku
new update just did 4 KSNM 99 Faffy side 1/4 on beard from that currently 0/4 on faffy dropping anything 2 th 7 1 th 8 1 th 10. this is bull lol
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05-12-2011, 08:58 PMMarkovChain
I think this is were I say "I said it". We had an update, now people have LESS chance for BB than they had before. The KS99 chance are about the same, King chance are ridiculously low, at least you could camp or buy them previously. Hope youy have 1k KS stockpiled.
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05-19-2011, 12:29 PMMojo
I approached this update with an open mind as the drop rates mostly determined how the changes would affect the difficulty in obtaining Black Belt and other HQHNM drops. Since the update, I've fought twenty The Horns of War KSNMs. Out of the twenty Behemoths that I popped (from the Beastly Shanks that were obtained), only one Savory Shank dropped. All Behemoth fights had at least TH8 proc'd on them, often TH9 or higher (up to TH11.) The King Behemoth that I popped did drop a Behemoth's Tongue, although this really isn't enough to say anything about the drop rate from King Behemoth or other HQHNMs. My anecdotal observations of what others have reported puts it at somewhere around a 50% drop rate.
For those curious about what my 1/20 drop rate means, here's some confidence intervals for you.
If you're unfamiliar with statistics, I'll explain what these numbers mean. The first column, the confidence level, is a measurement of how sure you are that the true drop rate is within some interval. So the first row says we can be 99% sure that, based on my data alone, the true drop rate on Savory Shank is between 0.03% and 31.71%.Code:Confidence Drop Rate Interval
99% 0.03%~31.71%
95% 0.13%~24.87%
90% 0.26%~21.61%
85% 0.39%~19.59%
80% 0.53%~18.10%
75% 0.67%~16.90%
70% 0.81%~15.89%
65% 0.96%~15.02%
60% 1.11%~14.24%
55% 1.27%~13.54%
50% 1.43%~12.90%
One thing worth noting is that because we do not have an accurate way of assessing the effects of Treasure Hunter on drop rates, I ignored any affect that it might have on the drops. This means that if Treasure Hunter does increase the drop rate on Savory Shank, then the true drop rate on Savory Shank will be even lower than these confidence intervals predict. Either way, if you assume that Treasure Hunter doesn't lower the drop rate on Savory Shank (seems like a safe assumption to me), then you can still assume that the base drop rates will be no higher than what these confidence intervals predict.
I'll do a little bit more math to maybe put how crappy this really is in perspective. I'll give the drop rate the benefit of the doubt and chalk up my observed 1/20 drop rate to extremely bad luck and assume a 1/5 drop rate on Savory Shank (note: if the drop rate was truly 1/5, then bad luck on my level would only occur 5.76% of the time, so it probably isn't even 1/5!) Over a hundred KS99 runs have led me to believe that the drop rate on Black Belt items from the KSNM is about 1/5. If you assume that the anecdotal 1/2 drop rate for HQHNM dropping Black Belt items is also accurate, you're left with a single Themis Orb producing at least one Black Belt item 28% of the time (as opposed to 20% of the time that was before.)
In regards to prepatch HNM camping. There wasn't much competition on Adamantoise at all and it was something that most players could solo. Aspi was a somewhat fun fight if it was up unclaimed. You could just ask your friends to come help you kill it. People did camp Behemoth for the chance at King Behemoth, although mostly it was for the chance at Defending Ring and you could usually offer to buy the Behemoth Tongue if it dropped. Fafnir was still lightly camped, usually by players trying to get Ridill or just to have fun killing it. You could often buy it from them too. I actually walked into Dragon's Aery one day to see Nidhogg unclaimed.
My impressions thus far are not great. They removed a method to obtain Black Belt that was very convenient for a large group of players. It's been replaced by a system that mostly tantalizes players even more so than getting the drop from KS99. The only 'upside' is that the new method is tied into KS99 making the whole process more linear. I wouldn't say it's more convenient though, if my ambition were to acquire a Black Belt I think I would much prefer the old way over this.
I don't want to turn this into a sob story, but perhaps put this into perspective with what Monks will be facing these days. The changes have more or less brought out the selfishness of the average player. Everyone wants the Black Belt items even if they don't have Monk leveled. They also want the HNM pop item too, so the whole double chance thing really only applies to your orb. The only way I was even able to acquire twenty Beastly Shanks so quickly was to duo the KSNM (Monk + White Mage => 3 minute Chevlnik kill) while paying anybody who used an orb 600K so I could get the Beastly Shank (they kept all other nine drops, including any Black Belt items.) So I have shelled out 12M gil thus far to pop one King Behemoth.
You might be one of the lucky ones who has friends willing to use their orbs. This seems unlikely though. I have several groups of friends and are all either out of seals or won't sell me theirs because they all want a Black Belt or other HQHNM items. Either way, relying on friends for their orbs is by no means practical for obtaining a Black Belt. It's unrealistic given the state of the game. The overwhelming majority of players are simply going to have to go on KS99 runs and buy them from other people going on the runs. You'll probably end up paying more than you did prepatch now too. If you're opposed to buying them for some reason, then you're more screwed than you were before the patch because you can't camp HNM like before.
I plan on continuing to do the Horns of War KS99 until I either run out of gil or until I get a Defending Ring. I'll post my results on Savory Shank drop rates here. I won't be collecting data from anybody else because I think it introduces reporting bias (people tend to report extraordinary good or bad drop rates more often than others.)
Either way, if Square Enix ever intended to ease the requirements to obtain Black Belt or reduce the absurdity of kings in some way, this is far from it. If there's anything that should be complained about in recent patches, it's the awful HQHNM pop item drop rates. -
05-20-2011, 04:11 AMMarkovChain
So you have 1 drop 19 no-drops and make statistics on that ? Go away.
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05-21-2011, 03:09 PMMojo
Even a 0/1 drop rate would be enough to make meaningful statistics (i.e. it's not 100%.) Everything I wrote was in the context of what twenty data points in an assumed binomial distribution can accurately describe. If you've got a problem with it, you might want to pick up a math book and educate yourself because there's absolutely nothing wrong with the way I analyzed it.
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05-22-2011, 07:20 AMMarkovChain
Did KS99 because the game is so boring and a friend wanted N head. Wyrm KS99 dropped its beard, a Fafnir pop, Fafnir dropped N head, and a Nidhogg pop. Nidhogg dropped its beard and A body. 2 beard for 99 seal. Too bad I don't need them.
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05-22-2011, 08:36 AMRaksha
1/8 behemoth tongue, 1/8 KB pop (all with TH9-11) (haven't popped KB yet)
1/10 Wyrm Beard, 1/8 Nidhogg pop, 0/8 ridill, Nidhogg only dropped dalmatica body.
Shitty drop rate is shitty. -
05-26-2011, 01:21 PMPeldinQuote:
Go away.
Your first post was not just ignorant, but rude as well. I can understand it though. I would certainly be grumpy too if I was paying 13+ bucks a month to bore myself =PQuote:
Did KS99 because the game is so boring
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06-13-2011, 11:22 AMdanzthis is EXACTLY what i had in mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dohati
i mean. i was never really in a extreme event oriented linkshell or never had the desire to. and was saving gil to pay a linkshell for these items. took a small break. and come back after an update or 2, level up. earn some gil. have enough to buy an item.
do a quick shout. and to my surprise somebody pointed out. its all changed. i do some research and now...
well. not to happy about it.
something that was already hard to get from years ago. SE just made harder even though levels are getting higher
linkshells that do those KS99s become more rare-er so. yea. thanks SE for making it nearly impossible to get. even for those who saved gil for years. -
06-13-2011, 11:33 AMdanzthere was always many shots at it. just nobody wanted to do any other KS99 other than early bird, and its still like this., finding people for KS99s just sucks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Henihhi
make the rewards worthwhile for the people not wanting BB and maybe more people will be willing to help a MNK. -
06-13-2011, 12:28 PMGreatguardian
Most all KS99 can be duo'd... they are nowhere near difficult. Just try them if you don't believe me. 15 levels means a lot. RDM+BLM+MNK took out Wyrm in like 5 minutes tops when I was messing around with it a while back.
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06-13-2011, 12:32 PMVazerus
Wyrm and Behemoth are easy; Turtle not so much :(.
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06-21-2011, 01:14 AMPeldinYeah, try turtle with a duo. See if you can get it lower than 90% {Good Luck!}Quote:
Most all KS99 can be duo'd
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06-21-2011, 02:05 PMKarbuncleQuote:
Originally Posted by Peldin
Thats probably why he used the word "Most" implying "Not all". :\Quote:
Originally Posted by Greatguardian
Turtle is a pain in the ass but i think 3-4 GREAT geared BLMS could do it. i'd go 4 to be safe, i did it with ~5/6 Pick up players who were (frankly) mostly gimp as sin, and we managed fine.
So i imagine 4 Really well geared BLMS could destroy it, throw in a BRD or RDM for good measure (Refresh) and you're golden. -
08-05-2011, 12:42 PMGokku
Seirous tips / updates for people looking to get black belts
1 . Bring 2 thfs and have them as the only DD's on the NQ mobs to build TH * using this method we went 2/2 aspid pop items and 3/4 nid pop items*
2. for HQ the drop rate with TH10 is high but it can still NOT drop *just had aspid drop nothing* -
08-09-2011, 03:27 AMAnzaHave you seen the bazaar prices on the kings pop items that are 100% drop from the KSNMs? That's one worthwhile reason for people to help. Adamantoise pop is going for something like 1.5mil on my server. And if someone wants to risk using their pop item to try to get an HQ pop, those are selling for downright obscene prices.Quote:
Originally Posted by danz
I completed my BB, all three items from the new system (egg and beard from KSNMs, tongue from KB that a friend popped). I didn't pay for any of my items, got em from drops. Even made some money off the pop item that I sold, obtained in the turtle KSNM where I got my egg to make me 3/3. I dreaded the new changes at first too, but it's not impossible.
It's a little harder to outright buy the items like you used to be able to from HNMLS, but at least popping the NQ kings is something within reach of a small group now instead of needing to be in an HNMLS or being at their mercy to buy their drops. -
08-09-2011, 04:37 PMQkan
Hoping to go through some KS99s soon and only worried about Turtle. What's a safe estimate of people to take and recommended jobs? I'd guess 5-6 with maybe a THF tank, WHM, BLM, BLM, BRD? If 6th, another BLM? How well would MNK perform over BLM? I'd be that guy and my BLM is only 78 with decent gear where my MNK is 90 in +2 and capped haste (Twilight+Fuma... and I know).
Jobs available for at least 5 people that would go (all jobs 90 unless otherwise specified)
1: MNK, BLM(78)
2: THF, PLD
3: BRD, WAR
4: BLM, SAM, DRG
5: WHM... yeah, he's stuck with that job.
6: Well, I don't have a 6th, but I'm sure I could find someone. Thinking BLM here. -
08-15-2011, 07:44 PMDebbieGibson
need more blm to be safe. can do it with two blm but they need to be very well geared and you probably need to get lucky
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08-15-2011, 08:55 PMKarbuncleon turtle, Its more or less BLM burn, You can do it with or without skillchains (sometimes, with bad players, skillchains just complicate things, being to slow/etc). He regens incredibly quick inside his shell, and will need to be nuked out immediately, Unless you're very very very confident in your BLM's, I'd bring at least 4, this gives you "room for error" so to speak.Quote:
Originally Posted by Qkan
The jobs you have listed could not win the fight, only 2 BLM's, one of them 78, you would lose. even at level 90 his Defense inside his shell is phenomenal, MNK and WAR would not even scratch the performance of a BLM on this fight.
THF is pretty much useless for this fight, so is PLD, or any "Tank" for that matter as with all the nuking, One of the BLM's will likely end up "Tanking", and it can be Bound/Gravitied so having 1 RDM keep that up is ideal.
I made the mistake of shouting for ~4/5 BLMs and underestimating him, It was a bad idea, "its my 12.95" people generally are what make this fight harder than it should, to be safe, I recommend at least 7 if they're "Shout tier" players.
Edit: No offense intended to anyone here, of course. -
08-15-2011, 09:36 PMDebbieGibson
I had a group with 7 blms fail because they were too uncoordinated.
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08-15-2011, 09:42 PMKarbuncle
Yah, Thats a problem too. Luck of the draw with pick up groups. You could just bring 18 BLMS and even if they were full idiots theres no way you could lose. It would just explode.
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08-16-2011, 02:38 AMGreatguardianYou know as well as I do that they would find a way!Quote:
Originally Posted by Karbuncle