HQ king triggers

1/4 KB triggers dropped on TH7-9 off Behemoth for my group.

Not a good drop rate at all.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Catsby

What exactly are you trying to measure? Drop rate or drop rate under TH effects?

---

If someones foolish enough to fight these without attempting to stack TH, then they're flat out retarded...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sureal

brah, you so cool, you come in here with your small sample size, and discount anyone that says your wrong, refusing to put your seals where your mouth is, disregarding scientific method for your own convoluted ways

---

You do realize he is keeping track of them separately also, right?

Quote:

---

ps, you do know that if you would have gotten that drop rate first, you never would have started this because "OMG 30% DROP RATE" remember way back when, when you said 25% would be great

---

The only drop rate anywhere close to that is the aspid one, which has the lowest sample size. I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt, but every post you make leads me to believe that you lack a fundamental understanding of just about anything.

We are aggregating drop rates, it's a work in progress. We realize the sample sizes are too low, we are constantly updating them. Get off our nutsacks and let us present our data.

hows about you get data BEFORE you present it, thats generally how things work, just saying

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sureal

hows about you get data BEFORE you present it, thats generally how things work, just saying

---

Pretty much. Test still isn't internally valid.

true, presenting this as a work in progress has no problems persay but that is not how this was presented, it was presented at "this is the way it is, i have only done a small number but i can assume that my drop rate is accurate"

this thread was made to complain about a drop rate that was not yet known, and is still not known

Whatever. I ain't even mad.

I only started posting in this thread because the OP was complaints without solid grounds for them. As long as he/she keeps getting more people's support that's great. My only concern is that he/she is trying to narrow in on supposed drop rates without knowing how much each increment in treasure hunter affects it and more importantly whether treasure hunter affects it at all.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sureal

hows about you get data BEFORE you present it, thats generally how things work, just saying

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Catsby

Pretty much. Test still isn't internally valid.

---

You're both inept...clinging onto ONE argument over and over. SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES

However, since the galka edited his post after I replied, I missed this gem

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sureal

refusing to put your seals where your mouth is

---

I already stated these fights cost 99KS, and I've already demonstrated the math of how long it would take 1 person solo to get sufficient KS to initiate another fight (1 seal per 5 min, presumed even distribution of 50% between kindred and beastmen, 990 minutes or 16.5 hours...and if you go "well just team up duh pfft stupid", theres still only so many mobs available). Believe it or not, I actually DO have a job, and actually do enjoy attempting to have a social life, so spending every awake moment (sleep 7.5 hours, farm 16.5 hours, dont eat dont shower dont piss dont work dont pay for internet nor ffxi...) farming colibris for kindred seals for the next year just to satisfy your primal urge for a sample size of 500...not gonna happen.

From a statistical standpoint, sure, chant SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES SAMPLE SIZES allllllllllllll you want. From a logical standpoint, theres a pattern I see, a ridiculously low drop rate considering what you need to start it up. Yeah, I would have been happy with 25% drop rate, HQ kings open on day 3, and contrary to your "they usually take 2 weeks to spawn", they usually spawn by day 6-7. But the difference between a 25% drop rate, and the 10% drop rate were seeing is an average of 396 seals per spawn and 990 seals per spawn. Your AVERAGE player probably wont amass more than 1500 KS in their playing career, but they probably also used a bunch in the past 7 years on KS30 and on KS99's when were first introduced and had big money. Seeing as how the game is basically Abyssea Fantasy XI now, and kindred seals dont drop there (or very very rarely)...the only way you're going to get seals now is by attempting to farm them, instead of previous method during FFXI of getting them while you xp. However, where people opt to xp/merit is not SE's problem in this case.


As to that gem of a quote I forgot to emphasize on. I had 11 KS99 worth of seals on my main, and 2 each on my 2 mules. Would that satisfy your urges for a sample size? thats only 15, FIFTEEN. That's a mockery of your desire for sample size. Since the addition of the triggered kings NM's, I'm down to 0 attempts on both my mules, and 5 on my main. So even if I "put my seals where my mouth is", you'd still whine about my sample size.

inb4 "just make 3 parties with your 2 mules"

Christ dude, calm down. If anything we are trying to help. This isn't something you can easily do in a week or even a month unless you managed to find a ton of people to help. You just need to make sure everyone who does help knows what you want them to do. Are they testing with or without treasure hunter? if it is with treasure hunter then how much?

edit: validity of tests isn't simply your sample size.

i never said they usually take 2 weeks to spawn, i said that was the longest that i had seen


and just because you are unable (and im not saying this in a bad way, because you are right, ks's do take a while to farm) does not justify lower sample size


and yes, i will chant sample size until i die, because THAT IS WHAT IT TAKES TO GET A CORRECT ANSWER

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sureal

and just because you are unable

---

http://cache.kotaku.com/assets/image...08/warning.jpg

looool amazing counterargument on my part. (I'm referring to spending 16.5 hours per day farming sufficient seals)


and as I said, if anyone is killing the NQ's without TH, theyre retarded...plain and simple. Its going to be hard to get much more of a sample size if majority of the player base, that I've seen so far, are disgusted with the drop rate. Despite your SAMPLE SIZE claims over and over, the average that people are seeing RIGHT NOW is in the 10% range...actually less than 10% for KB and Nid (which are ironically the ones people actually might have some focus on...better abjus and D.Ring). Not many people are going to want to waste their seals on this.

0/11 faf 1/9 behe 0/4 ada all with lots of TH

0/7 Fafnir HQ triggers despite some stellar TH!
At least doing the Wyrm KSNM we got most everyone a beard in the process.

tell you what, i will leave this thread and never come back, IF, you start a new thread, asking for drop rates obtained by players, and nothing more, update the op to the thread with the numbers when someone adds to it, then, when you get enough numbers overall, and can show the difference between mobs, THEN come back complaining about it

hell, i will even like your posts if you do this

Quote:

---

and as I said, if anyone is killing the NQ's without TH, theyre retarded...plain and simple.

---

Does treasure hunter actually affect loot inside of a burning circle?

Quote:

---

Its going to be hard to get much more of a sample size if majority of the player base, that I've seen so far, are disgusted with the drop rate.

---

People still do the BCNM for kraken clubs even knowing it has a supposed drop rate of 1%.

Just make sure the people helping you are testing the same way as you(if possible).

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Catsby

Does treasure hunter actually affect loot inside of a burning circle?

---

You have no idea whats going on because you seem to think that the BCNM is what drops the HQ king item...unless I misunderstood, but I know I didnt because theres no reason at all for you to mention TH and BC in the same sentence in this context.

You do the KS99, you get the NQ pop item, which drops 100%. You run to where the NQ king spawns, and trade it to a ???, which spawns the NQ king. You think kill the NQ king (this is where all the TH comes into play) which has a chance at dropping a HQ trigger.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Catsby

Does treasure hunter actually affect loot inside of a burning circle?

---

He's talking about the drop rate of NQ land kings, not the KS99 drop rate.

Fighting behemoth/fafnir/whatever the turtle is doesn't take place inside a BC.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sureal

hows about you get data BEFORE you present it, thats generally how things work, just saying

---

So gather the data somewhere else, then come post it here? Why can't we just gather it here?

The consensus is that the pops for HQ kings off NQ kings is 5% .
And it's complete BS that the drop rate is this low, the drop rate should be much higher.

Friend of mine went 1/17 off fafnir one day.
Personally I'm 0/12 on faf and 0/8 on behemoth. And with all my kills, all damage comes from THFs, TH is always above 10.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Nynja

You do the KS99, you get the NQ pop item, which drops 100%. You run to where the NQ king spawns, and trade it to a ???, which spawns the NQ king. You think kill the NQ king (this is where all the TH comes into play) which has a chance at dropping a HQ trigger.

---

ok. that makes more sense. It's been years since I've done a KSNM and probably longer since I cared enough to fight fafnir and co outside of nyzul.

The remaining question I have is; how much does an increment of treasure hunter increase drop rate? It might be a large boost and it might not. If somebody is giving you their drop numbers off mixed results then Ooops! Simpson's paradox and the further claim that the drop rate sucks.

Updated loot counts, separated by NM, all presumed with TH.

Adamantoise:
Me 2/6, Gwynplaine 5/10, Karb 0/3, Insaniac 0/4
7/23

Fafnir:
Me 0/3 BG 0/3, Rak 1/8, Karb 1/3, Wiki 1/32, Insaniac 0/11 Gwyn 0/7 Wish12fraand 1/17 Wish12 0/12
4/96

Behemoth:
Me 0/4, BG 0/3, Rak 1/8, Karb 0/4, Saca 0/8, Wiki 3/26, Insaniac 1/9 Wish12 0/8
5/70


People are going to go on BG, and read about how people have had horrible drop rates on the HQ. People are going to come on these forums, and read about how people have had horrible drop rates on the HQ. Theyre going to go on ffxiah forums and find the same results. They'll go on Zam..and wont find anything. Theyre going to read all this, and then go "do I really want to waste my KS99 knowing I have almost no chance at getting a kings pop?" I can tell you right now, I'm not wasting my last 500 seals.

Nynja, with the drop rates like this. What would you say is a fair price for a themis orb?
If I don't get egg on my single orb I will have to buy.

i just had a thought, you said "im not wasting my last 500 seals"

lol,what the hell else are you gonna do with them, oh thats right, ksnm99's

so basically what your saying is that you are mad that now, instead of fighting JUST the ksnm99 mob, you also get to fight a guaranteed fafnir, AND maybe a nidhogg

i seriously fail to see how this is a problem

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sureal

i just had a thought, you said "im not wasting my last 500 seals"

lol,what the hell else are you gonna do with them, oh thats right, ksnm99's

so basically what your saying is that you are mad that now, instead of fighting JUST the ksnm99 mob, you also get to fight a guaranteed fafnir, AND maybe a nidhogg

i seriously fail to see how this is a problem

---

He's gonna save them for if SE ups the drop rate on nid/kb pop item. As am I.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Raksha

He's gonna save them for if SE ups the drop rate on nid/kb pop item. As am I.

---

My answer is pretty much identical to this.

KS99 fight? WOWWWWWW, do you know what I've done with my drops so far? With the exception of the Behemoth Hide, Shining Cloth and items I cant sell to NPC, everything has gone to NPC, or put on AH cause I had space and its worth an extra 1-2k more on AH. You're not going to make money off KS99's now, not even the elusive Speed Belt is worth anything, except MAYBE to pld's and drks. But getting one of those is like getting a Kraken Club...raaare.

So if the drop rate doesnt get adjusted, I'll do like I was doing with them before: keep them stored on Shami. Its not like I stored up 1200 KS for 5 years going "I have faith that SE's going to change kings into pop NM's". KS30's stopped being worth my time cause market changed, I stopped doing em. KS99's arent worth my time because the ultimate goal has a non-existant drop rate, I wont do em. Its not even like the gear kings drop (with the exception of D.Ring, and thats rare as F) is groundsbreaking anymore. Theres NO reason for the HQ pop items to have such a garbage drop rate!

@Bumbeen
I'm not good at gauging prices ,but heres what I can tell you
1/3 Beard (Beard dropped on second)
1/8 Egg
1/5 Tongue

Me and mdk went 1/1 on both beard and pop (wyrm > fafnir > nidhogg). Also ITT, BG idiots doing statistics with 20 sample size.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MarkovChain

Me and mdk went 1/1 on both beard and pop (wyrm > fafnir > nidhogg). Also ITT, BG idiots doing statistics with 20 sample size.

---

ITT someone going 1/1 on a drop citing it as anything but luck and calling people with a sample size of 189 "idiots"

Calling people with a sample size of 20 idiots also doesn't make any sense either. We aren't trying to find out the exact %, 20 is plenty enough to give you an idea of the droprate. It isn't going to suddenly jump to 40%+ droprate when you get to 1000 kills.

Parrots. Slapping your keyboards without any idea what you're saying or why.

Yes it is, duh...thats why you need a sample size of 1000, to weed out the obvious initial bad luck...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bumbeen

We aren't trying to find out the exact %

---

Sure we are.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bumbeen

20 is plenty enough to give you an idea of the droprate
.

---

Nope , especially with different Treasure Hunter procs and different NM mixed. It doesn't excude 25% for HQ king so far. 10% or 30% is a lot different and 20 sample size cannot distingish this.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MarkovChain

Nope , especially with different Treasure Hunter procs and different NM mixed. It doesn't excude 25% for HQ king so far. 10% or 30% is a lot different and 20 sample size cannot distingish this.

---

No 20 samples cannot distinguish between 10% or 30%, but that still gives you a good idea of what the drop rate is. As in it's less than 30%, at least. 3/22 in fact is more like +-14% so sub 28% drop rate is almost certain. I don't see how that isn't useful information.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bumbeen

No 20 samples cannot distinguish between 10% or 30%, but that still gives you a good idea of what the drop rate is. As in it's less than 30%, at least. 3/22 in fact is more like +-14% so sub 28% drop rate is almost certain. I don't see how that isn't useful information.

---

Especially considering we have much more then a sample size of 20? I saw 189.

189 isnt enoug, it must be 1000!!!!!!

Sorry, I basically read the first few posts and wrote that. Typically the value you multiply the assumed standard deviation by scales with sample size (so lower N or degrees of freedom = higher number). I used 1.96, which is the generic "Hey, you're above 30!" number. There are also some tests that people simply say are not valid until you have >30 sample size.

I've personally not had much issues with that equation I'm using giving very inaccurate results at low N (apart from where p is very close to 100% or 0%). It gave a huge window (almost 1/3 of the probability space), which is appropriate for a low N.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html

I used that, presuming Population Size would be the amount of "accepted data" to tell whats accurate, I used 1000, and threw in our data of 189 samples, which gave a margin of error of 6.42%? Did I do that right?

Well, throwing around random population size numbers didnt change much, its always around the 5-7% margin of error range.

For a two-state event (it happens or it doesn't), I think the binomial distribution error thing is best.
X = how often something happened
N = sample size

X/N +/- (1.96*SQRT( (1 - X/N) * X / N^2) )

or, when p is the ratio:
p +/- (1.96*SQRT( (1-p)*p/N) )

(I would just do it for you, but I can't find the 189 you're talking about)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Nynja

Updated loot counts, separated by NM, all presumed with TH.

Adamantoise:
Me 2/6, Gwynplaine 5/10, Karb 0/3, Insaniac 0/4
7/23

Fafnir:
Me 0/3 BG 0/3, Rak 1/8, Karb 1/3, Wiki 1/32, Insaniac 0/11 Gwyn 0/7 Wish12fraand 1/17 Wish12 0/12
4/96

Behemoth:
Me 0/4, BG 0/3, Rak 1/8, Karb 0/4, Saca 0/8, Wiki 3/26, Insaniac 1/9 Wish12 0/8
5/70

---

thats the 189

I get 8.5% +/- 4%, so likely 10%. This assumes all three populations have the same probability.

The real problem is that "10%" is with TH8~+ on most all of those kills.

Thats some pretty shitty Drop rate D: Would anyone complain if they upped it to ~20% >_>?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Byrth

I get 8.5% +/- 4%, so likely 10%. This assumes all three populations have the same probability.

---

So 990 k.seals on average to pop HQ king?

That d.ring is gonna take a while >_<.