Getting savory for 3000 isn't increasing the odds anymore than normal for 1000, the drop rate on savory shanks with decent TH is already close to 30-40%. it just means I'm not going to have to wait in a line for 1.5 hours so that I can watch thfs with a thfs knife AFV3 boots and AFV2+2 gloves solo BH in 20 minutes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Belmonts
Repeat Login Campaign No. 11 and Items
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05-13-2014, 08:28 AMDaniel
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05-13-2014, 08:55 AMBelmontsIt actually is, because by simple math every NQ pop has roughly a success rate of 1/4 (.25) (can get worse at times, can get lucky as well)Quote:
Originally Posted by Daniel
D.Ring drop rate is known by all of us much worse, to round it up (out of wikis) is .5% success rate so lets put it that in 1/60 you get it on a normal case scenario. So is (.01666667)
Adding up probabilities makes (.25)x(.01) = 0.00416667 chances of a drop rate (in fraction 21/5000) Because you have to win both events to succeed to win D.Ring. But both events are independent.
So yeah skipping the NQ conversion to savory shank does increase your success rate at the end of the day because (0.01666667) > (0.00416667).
Don't get me wrong man, I want everyone to get that awesome ring, but easing up things more than they are, in my humble opinion, is a little too much in my book, everyone may think otherwise or agree with me.
Nevertheless I hope you get your ring on this campaign.
Regards. -
05-13-2014, 09:06 AMOlorSo not true. Wiki lists the drop rate as much lower, and my experience with TH10 suggests the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daniel
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05-13-2014, 10:41 PMDragoy
Heh.
In my earlier comment, I was thinking of the beastly shank, honey wine, and blue pondweed for some reason. Must have been pretty sleepy indeed. I would remove these from the list as well, though I'm sure not many, if any will agree.
Why? Well, I do wonder how many they have made happy, and how many they have made unhappy. All I have seen from others doing it, is griefing, general rudeness, and disappointment. That's one of the reasons I have not even thought about going fer it. When I did do the battle quite a few times while helping with black belt, thus getting triggers the regular way, I'd normally not waste time in trying to get the treasure hunter effect up, for in the end of the day, everything is 50/50 to me. ^^;
That is to say, either you get something, or you don't! Simple as! :D
While on that topic, I do think they should completely remove the ability to raise the treasure hunter effect aside from equipment as usual. It's a plus that they put some limits in place, and as an idea it's cool, but it simply doesn't do good, unfortunately. The most prominent behaviour seen because of it is, of course, defeating the enemy as slow as possible while hoping for the effect to go up. I doubt that was one of the intended effects, but at the same time, I would not be surprised if it was.
To get back to the campaign, I feel these items should not be in the campaign because of what I mentioned above: it seems to be making more players disappointed, sad even, than it makes them happy. That's only my view, of course.
On that note, I do think the ring, and anything that rare, should be more common or at least more accessible. To explain why without going into it in length, I never felt 'drop-rates' being fair, especially on items that can't be sold. Someone will get them in one or few tries, while the other needs to go for hundreds, if not thousands of tries. That's simply uncool.
Since I doubt such basics will ever be adjusted, things could at least be made more accessible via other means. The amount of seals and/or crests required for battlefields, or the rate at which they can be obtained, could be adjusted. Considering the topic, they could (and should, in my opinion) adjust the amount available via the log-in campaign. That would also open up a lot more choice for battles one might want to go for, but wouldn't otherwise put the time or points into.
Just some thoughts. \ö/ -
05-14-2014, 10:20 PMDanielWho ever taught you math should be fired.Quote:
Originally Posted by Belmonts
Just ignoring your typo with 0.01, your forgetting that you get 3 times as many chances with the 0.00416667 chance so your real rate is .0125... Even then, I still find that I average a savory shank every 3 kills with TH11-12. -
05-15-2014, 12:53 AMBelmontsHere: Adding independent events probabilities lolQuote:
Originally Posted by Daniel
And 0.01 is not a typo, is your chance of getting a Defending Ring taking in mind you succeed once out of 60 tries (which it seems to be the horrible success rate) just a number that others have. And if you can't type 1/60 in your calculator and get 0.01 well... lol
You got it 1/1 ? ♬Sweeeet♪ You got it 1/92 ? Ewwww, lol. But D.Ring has that horrible success rate. 1 defending ring out of 60 tries is, more or less, the average success rate and taking in mind your savory shank popped out of thin air. Ergo, you taking that probability out of the table.
And you got 1/3 success rate from beastly to savory shank conversion instead of 1/4? Good fer ya lol, people has it 1/2 or 1/1 sometimes. That doesn't change the overall odds, is just your luck and the oh-so-hated TH 11-12.
So yeah, you will fight against the odds lol, and for everyone else that have the chance to get savory shanks out of login points I wish ya to get D.Ring.
Peace. -
05-15-2014, 08:23 AMDanielI'll just assume your trolling now...Quote:
Originally Posted by Belmonts
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05-15-2014, 12:56 PMBelmontsNah, lol (´・ω・`)Quote:
Originally Posted by Daniel
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05-27-2014, 12:52 PMFrankReynolds
FFXI DB has Savory shank at:
5316 out of 34776 15.3% http://ffxidb.com/items/3342
and
Defending ring at: 349 out of 6771 5.2% http://ffxidb.com/items/13566
if that helps clear things up.
It does not list the level of TH on those kills though, so mileage may vary. -
05-28-2014, 06:03 AMBeerbohm
Sorry if this is a silly question, but I see these numerous timepieces, what do they do?