Inc. rate of high-quality item synth. success + broken?

This year and at least some of last year, any time I have attempted to craft, my HQ rate and distribution among HQ tiers has been terrible. generally worse than the stated base rates on BGwiki.

i know from my own testing long ago when SE changed how HQ+ worked, that it was a HQ success*(1+.01X) HQ3+X/256 HQ1-3X/1024 HQ2-X/1024 for recipes with 3 HQ tiers, & HQ success*(1+.01X) HQ2+X/256 HQ1-X/256 for recipes with 2 HQ tiers. Recipes with only one HQ tier don't have a distribution to bother with so it's just HQ success*(1+.01X).

nowadays i haven't seen ANY of that in hundreds of synth attempts. latest batch with 3 HQ tiers & a t3 HQ rate (expected 50% HQs) i got 46% HQs which is what I'd expect if the stat was HQ- instead of +...
the distribution was 33/4/2 from 84 synths of this latest batch. t1 is more prevalent than it should be while t2 & t3 are worse than expected even without HQ+ used.


Anyone else seen similar? should a bug report be filed or am I just having the absolute worst luck ever?


EDIT: i wrote the wrong success amount from memory, double checked, it's another 256 calculation.
base:
T0=4
T1=16
T2=64
T3=128

HQ success then equals: (base+X)/256
X= Increases rate of high-quality item synthesis success+ (HQ+ for short)