View Full Version : luck attribute
Not sure if this discussion belongs here but here goes: is there or isn't there a luck attribute or effect in the game and why isn't it quantified? most seem to say no, but I say yes. Here's why:
A: That Thief and Corsair are even in the game. They are nothing but basically luck driven jobs and if luck has absolutely nothing to do with their abilities then they aren't supposed to be a part of the game.
B. Well the fact that some, even thieves, have a tough time getting some things to drop and stealing things while others easily get it to drop/ steal it.
The only real question is why isn't it quantified? If they are going to make it a factor then it needs to be quantified in some way so we are not always in the dark. Or if it isn't then it should because why have "lucky" jobs but no luck attribute?
Karbuncle
04-07-2014, 07:59 AM
I appreciate the question. But you are simply failing to grasp the fundamental concepts of a random number generator at work. All of your "Whys" and "whats" fall into essentially crap results on the RNG. To be more exact, luck doesn't even exist in the real world. Its more or less a delusion brought on by our perception of random events and occurrences we try to reason. There is no such thing as good luck, or bad luck, its for lack of better word, superstitious bull :D.
But thats another discussion. Regardless I'll rebut your point 1 and 2 for you.
A: That Thief and Corsair are even in the game. They are nothing but basically luck driven jobs and if luck has absolutely nothing to do with their abilities then they aren't supposed to be a part of the game.
COR isn't luck, you have 6 options, 1 through 6 on a JA activation. These are programmed in a way where it randomly selects 1 through 6. Nothing in the game increasing your odds of hitting 11, its just random. Even abilities like "Snake Eye" have mathematically quantifiable %'s to hit you to 11. Its right in the Merit descriptor. (though I'd bet SE programmed in rolling double 6 to be 99% chance)
THF is also not even a little luck based since as i explained, luck is little more than a delusion of our attempts to explain random chance. THF works on a % system like anyone else. Drops aren't 100%, so what it comes down too is random numbers. I'll give an example to help explain it.
Gil drops from enemies with a variable of 10-100 gil a kill. Gilfinder adds 50% more gil, so in the end, the game chooses a gil amount through as random as math can make it, and Gilfinder adds 50%. this explains why sometimes a THF gets 150, sometimes they get 15. Its not luck, its math at work.
B. Well the fact that some, even thieves, have a tough time getting some things to drop and stealing things while others easily get it to drop/ steal it.
Also math at work lady. If an item has 20% chance to drop, thats an average, not an absolute. but i'll give you an example.
Say obtaining a drop is based on a /random system of rlls. 0-999. Getting a D.ring is rolling 0-50, but with TH, THF rolls 5-12 times depending on their TH proc. They have 12 chances to roll a 0-50, where as any other person has 1. But as with random numbers, each chance is equal in terms of how it will roll. You may have 12 chances, but landing on one of the 1000 numbers doesn't remove it, so your odds are still 50 in a 1000, or 1 in 20. a THF just gets a 1 in 20 shot 12 times instead of 1.
But to make it less complicated. I /random and land on 14, I win. THF rolls 12 times and gets 129, 983, 583, 287, 87, 908, 300, 398, so on... and not a single 0-50... His LUC stat didn't fail, its just the random number generator didn't hit the desired outcome. Its not more "Luck" than tossing a coin and getting heads twice in a row and your friend getting tails twice in a row... Its just chance.
So in the end, no quantifiable evidence of a luck stat exists, so far everything you suggest is easily and well explained through the series of mathematics formula that already exist in the game. It's easy to mistake random chance with luck if you believe luck can actually be a thing, but its not, and most if not all things are easily explained by math, especially things like games and computers which are almost entirely derived from complex or not-so-complex mathematics.
-Also, I remember a Dev response a long time ago, possibly a live letter or even before that back in the Allakhazam days where someone asked about a luck stat. Think they mentioned stuff like always drinking a can of pepsi before fighting Fafnir, and so on. SE almost word for word said "There's no way to program Luck, but that shouldn't stop you from opening your pepsi" or something to that extent. They came out and said "luck doesn't exist"... Where? Idk... I'm sure enough time on Google could bring it up.
Edit: I'd also like to mention most of the discussion on Luck Stats were about the time COR was released, and most if not all in the COR section back when people suspected LUC would be added as a brand new stat. No dice.
Edit:found it - the 2007 Fan Festival!
In regards to items like Four-Leaf Mandragora bud and so forth, items considered "lucky"
Do the luck items have any effect on drops and do they have to be consumed?
There is no hidden effects programed for these items. But there is no program for luck.
Plain and simple.
All right, then maybe I should clarify what I mean by saying these jobs are luck driven and maybe clarify how it should (maybe) be handled in this game. In every game even this one thief storywise has just been a luck driven game and corsair is NOTHING but a gambler and they always believe they have good luck. Erm...even in real life all gamblers believe this actually...but except for this one every game that has thieves or a thief like job in it has a luck attribute in one way or another. Now you say they decided to completely cut it out because it's "too hard to calculate". I believe the random number generator is a harder system or should I say, easier on them harder on us. Honestly do they plan on using it when they eventually put in the enmity control system for thief? Because of that's their plan *hangs up 70 thief knife*
Karbuncle
04-07-2014, 09:24 AM
Luck in old FF titles usually related to drop rates, or Critical hit chance. You can view that by looking at the wiki page on the FF Wiki.
Thats taken care of in XI by DEX, or AGI(For ranged), and Treasure Hunter as a trait. So if you'd like to think because they had luck in past FF games it must be a hidden stat in XI, then I rebut that they are not hidden, and in fact not LUC at all, but DEX, AGI, and Treasure Hunter.
So its not that they decided to leave it out, they added what you would consider a "Luck" stat through DEX/agi(crit rate), and Treasure hunter (Drop rates). But neither are a real "luck" cause as SE plainly stated, theres no way to program luck, since as a computer game, its done entirely through math, and even things that appear random, have a pattern.
So it falls to again, no, there is no luck in XI, at least not in the sense that its a hidden stat. Theres as much luck in XI as there is luck in hitting 21 in blackjack. Random chance.
Ah, and actually I hate to say this but if all they use is a random number generator and not luck in any way then I believe Kincard may be right there's absolutely no reason for a thief or even a corsair to be in the game. No luck involved so technically every job can have the treasure hunter and even the steal abilities it really hasn't been fair that they've been monopolizing it for so long, just rename and respec them as an assassin and maybe just rename corsair (I don't know what to be honest but can't be anything gambling related).
Karbuncle
04-07-2014, 09:32 AM
I personally hate Treasure Hunter and the randomness of COR, so in fact, i agree with you there.
But seriously, I realize it's easier on them but it obviously is not on us so why use a mathematical luck calculator oops I mean a random number generator? Why not come up with something easier on both of us like maybe just a if you fail X amount of times the next time will be a success type of thing or something like that? Even if they set it high (20) it still should be a lot better than the Random number generator.
Lithera
04-07-2014, 10:20 AM
Musketeer ? If they were to rename cor.
Musketeer ? If they were to rename cor.
Yeah I forgot about that musketeer would be a possible name for them. Ah but how to resolve the rolls...call them barrel rolls maybe (as in gun barrel)? Nah then the animation will look kooky.
Duh pirate, and just call the rolls pirate rolls. I would suggest 2 guns twirling as an animation effect instead of the die but considering which way they have it twirling the animation would again look kooky.
Deifact
04-10-2014, 08:08 AM
COR isn't totally at the mercy of a random number generator though. They get abilities like Snake Eye to manipulate the outcome of "luck" to be more favourable.
THF is at the mercy of luck just as much as every other job, like Karbuncle explained above, THF just gets more roll of the RNG dice. If you look into reward systems, Luck is actually a very effective way of keeping people hooked on a task (i.e. keeping people playing).
Humour me by allowing me to describe some psychology. When people do things, they generally get rewarded, but the schedule of this reward has a big impact on whether the person continues to do whatever it is they're being rewarded for.
Two examples are what are called "fixed" schedules. These can be described in the way jobs and commission works. A "fixed interval" schedule is for example getting paid £10 an hour for working. A "fixed ratio" would be like commission, I.E you get given £20 for each 10 sales you make.
The other two are "variable interval" and "variable ratio". "Variable interval" works like random drug testing at work. "Variable ratio" is like playing a slot machine in a casino.
The most powerful reward schedule for getting someone to do something, is variable ratio. Any sort of gambling system works on a variable ratio schedule, because people think "oh but I might win this time!" and continue on and on into infinity.
Online games (or most games) work on this variable ratio system. You will keep going back and killing that NM because you never know, it might drop this time! Because of this "hook" the games have, they will never add a "luck" stat that you can improve and in turn, increase the chances of an item dropping (and therefore, reducing the "hook" effect to keep you playing and paying) UNLESS the method of increasing the "luck" stat is in itself an item you have to pay for with real money.
Sorry for the waffling post, but if you want to read more about it, you can check the wikipedia article for Reinforcement schedules here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement#Schedules).
Yeah but what I was talking about was that (And this is what actually got me thinking) that some were arguing that thief is more of a single player rpg job, not an mmorpg job. Corsair too but corsair could maybe just be renamed, thief has had an unfair monopoly on what should have been abilities for all the jobs. Treasure hunter? That should have been given to all jobs, all the steal abilities too but instead they brought in thief and, well, basically enabled many of the rmt players and caused much of the problems they ended up having to hire a task force to deal with. And you could say well there was no stopping that but still, they might have had a bit more control over it had they just left thief out. Now that I think of it a luck attribute (of any kind) would just "explain" thief being here not really make it fair to have thief here. If that makes sense. But it would at least make it fair for corsair.
Deifact
04-11-2014, 01:54 AM
Treasure hunter? That should have been given to all jobs, all the steal abilities too but instead they brought in thief and, well, basically enabled many of the rmt players and caused much of the problems they ended up having to hire a task force to deal with. And you could say well there was no stopping that but still, they might have had a bit more control over it had they just left thief out.
Hmm yeah it does make THF a bit unfair, Steal is pretty useless and i've heard suggestions of changing it to steal a temporary item like you get from blue treasure chests (which is similar to how GW2 THF works). I think everyone would agree Treasure Hunter has been a THF gimmick that has caused more harm than good for the job as it's kept the job somewhat relevant but in doing so prevented SE from making changes to THF to make it better.
SE tried to make THF more viable without Treasure Hunter by making it manipulate enmity but it's such a niche role that I doubt it really makes any difference.
If they changed how steal works, and removed Treasure Hunter, SE could maybe focus on making THF better.
Well now I wouldn't say remove it altogether because, face it without ol' TH at all those of us who farm and still try to get quest items and that would be in for some loooong tear-filled days. It could just be given to every job at level 3 or maybe 4 and maybe just take TH off of all gear and weapons. Then the only thing that'll make it go up is treasure hound which would only be to TH5 and hopefully that plus the lack of rmts in the game could keep things simple and fair. Eeeep or are you talking about just remove it from thief?
Ah and I hate to point this out but if that is really what game developers are doing to put luck in the game (either mathematically calculating it or using a random number generator to simulate it) then as long as SE is using the random number generator for Corsairs abilities, Thief's steal abilities and learning blue magic and that then they do have game luck (not even calling it real life luck, chance, coincidence or fate)...as a matter of fact don't they use it for those game tables? (which I never play) I used to see some playing it but I don't anymore why did they put it there at all if again they don't want "luck" in the game?
Dragoy
04-11-2014, 09:44 PM
Well now I wouldn't say remove it altogether because, face it without ol' TH at all those of us who farm and still try to get quest items and that would be in for some loooong tear-filled days.
You make it seem as if treasure hunter was required for one to be able to get some items. I certainly never needed it, even though I have had thief leveled up for ages, I actually rarely made use of it with any special items. I'd more use it if I was hunting some more common items, but even so, it was rather rare, and certainly not required! ^^;
It actually seemed that I had more “luck” in getting special items I wanted without treasure hunter in effect.
as a matter of fact don't they use it for those game tables? (which I never play) I used to see some playing it but I don't anymore why did they put it there at all if again they don't want "luck" in the game?
Yes, that's luck (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luck) fer sure. A dice roll, only gravity isn't affecting it since (I'd guess) they use pseudo-randomness (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudorandomness) to produce the effect. There are ways of being at least a bit more random than that, however. See for example random.org (http://www.random.org/).
Yes, nearly all games rely on luck, to some extent. However, when developers speak of luck, it is, as has been mentioned, not something one can program (yet) and produce artificially. It would probably have to be magic.
Do you consider a result of a physical dice roll to be all about luck? Depends on how one perceives luck, but if you really think about it, is the result simply not a sum of how the dice were rolled (how they are being held before the roll, how strongly they are rolled, how far, et cetera). This is why for true random things like atmospheric noise is used, which I guess is, to a human, truly random.
Computers are way less capable in producing random numbers, since they have to follow a pattern to be able to form a result. A pattern that is programmed by a human. That is, unless they rely on noises, or something else like that.
So yes, they want luck to be a part of the game. Put in other words, they want players to not be able to get what they want on first try: enter drop-rates, which are set to be calculated in whatever-they-feel-like, and are not fair in the grand scheme of things (imagine someone gets an item on their first try, while another needs 1000 tries). But I digress.
Just a few, quick-like thoughts!
Went on for much longer than intended though. Ooopsies!
Yes well I believe if they are trying to make that point (there is no "luck" in video games) the point would be better made if there is a fixed system. It probably won't help none because they're so used to using it already but just having a set value for things is the way to go if you really don't want game luck in the game.
And by the way...there is a way to much more accurately get luck in the game....or at least a way that they can test it at least and get better results than mathematically calculated luck or simulated luck.