Treasure Hunter Testing

[Insaniac]

Running totals

•Colibri feathers

TH0 - 41/161 = 25.46% +/-7.2%
TH2 - 97/157 = 61.79 +/-8.6%
TH3 - 313/542 = 57.74% +/-4.6%
TH4 - 71/113 = 62.83% +/-10.2%

•Colibri beaks

TH0 - 30/161 = 18.63% +/-6.4%
TH2 - 69/157 = 43.94% +/-8.5%
TH3 - 97/188 = 51.59% +/-7.9%
TH4 - 23/46 = 50.00% +/-14.4%
TH3/4 - 102/211 = 48.34% +/-7.4%

Due to the large amount of effort on my part (90-120 minute per session) I decided not to separate the TH3 and 4 beak drops because, quite simply, it's annoying. I'm not running a bot to do this and a decent amount of the recording is done with pen and paper so if you would like to see this test done differently I encourage you to do it yourself ;). If you have data you would like added to the running totals please try to post it in the same format as mine.

Example:

Total kills - Total number including both TH3 and TH4
TH4 kills - Number of TH4 kills
Total feathers - Total number including both TH3 and TH4
TH4 feathers - Number of feathers that dropped on TH4 kills
TH3/4 beaks - Total number of beaks including both TH3 and TH4 kills

Edit: Arcon will be supplying separate TH3 and 4 numbers for beaks and will be added to the running totals separately. I will continue to report my beak drops as TH3/4.

Aura statue testing- Credit to Vold
The goal here is to try and discern any noticeable difference between drop rates on rare items between TH2 and high levels of TH.

TH2
Golem shards - 9/100 - 9%
Mythril ores - 47/100 - 47%
Raxa - 0/100 - 0%
Diorite - 11/100 - 11%

TH6
Golem shard - 7/100 - 7%
Mythril ore - 53/100 - 53%
Raxa - 0/100 - 0%
Diorite -7/100 - 7%

[Insaniac]

Batch 1 - 8/9

Total kills - 210
TH4 kills - 26
Total feathers - 129
TH4 feathers - 14
TH3/4 beaks - n/a

[Insaniac]

Batch 2 - 8/10 (Not included in running totals due to dramatically higher drop rates due in theory to a TH bonus from sanction)

Total kills - 182
TH4 kills - 25
Total feathers - 127
TH4 feathers - 23
TH3/4 beaks - n/a

[Insaniac]

Batch 3 - 8/11

Total kills - 211
TH4 kills - 41
Total feathers - 125
TH4 feathers - 26
TH3/4 beaks - 102

[Babekeke]

If you're not going to use a better format with stricter guidelines, you're wasting your time and might as well stop now. The sheer fact that you're not even counting beaks means that your informations is useless. What if the difference between TH3 and TH4 is simply more chance for a 2nd item to drop?

[Insaniac]

If you're not going to use a better format with stricter guidelines, you're wasting your time and might as well stop now. The sheer fact that you're not even counting beaks means that your informations is useless. What if the difference between TH3 and TH4 is simply more chance for a 2nd item to drop?The goal of this test is to see what exactly TH3 does compared to TH2. For the moment I'm comparing it to an 11k sample of TH2. That's the only reason I'm separating TH3 and 4 on the feathers. The beaks are really irrelevant to the test but someone in the other thread wanted me to post them so I did. Eventually I will get around (or someone else will) to retesting TH2. Honestly as far as TH4 goes we will probably never have a large enough sample size to nail down exactly what the TH+1 from TH4 does. Though, we will get a sense of the effectiveness (or lack there of) once I start getting some TH2 numbers from ???/THF kills.

Edit: Just to be more clear the original goal of this test was to prove that TH3 was actually just TH2+1. So far that's exactly what it's looking like. I only decided to keep adding to the sample to lower the margin of error so comparing it to a new TH2 test with a smaller sample size would be possible.

[Byrth]

Any TH undertaking is always massive. This is a useful datapoint whether he tracks TH4 vs. TH3 or not.

Theory in practice at the moment is this:
1) TH1 matters, gives a re-roll
2) TH2 matters, gives a second re-roll
3) TH+1 and the TH proc system, as far as any of us can ascertain, do all of jack shit.

So it doesn't really matter if he tracks the proc system, as long as number 3 is true. If we'd like a second way to measure this, I've started working out the loot pool for procced NQ Dynamis monsters:
Slot 1: Currency 100%
Slot 2: Currency ???%
Slot 3: Currency ???%
Slot 4: AF2/D1 Weapon
Slot 5: Crafting item
Slot 6: Currency ???%

I'm betting Slots 4-6 aren't affected at all by !! Proc, and Slots 1-3 are added.

[Arcon]

Personally, I still find it very hard to believe that even gear-TH works differently from trait-TH, let alone different tiers of trait-TH working differently from each other. For that, it really would matter if he tracks the procs. I will redo some TH2 testing when I get to it, to see if Thorny's data is still accurate.

I just started doing some TH0 kills last night, but was called away. However, I did manage to get this:
THX
Lesser Colibri
Name Drop rate Drop rate (%)
Colibri Feather 41/161 25.5%
Colibri Beak 30/161 18.6%

It's a relatively small sample, but it falls pretty clearly within Thorny's TH0 test. I'll focus on TH2 next.

If you could do me a favor, when you add the drop rates to your running totals, could you seperate those clear TH3 and TH4 kills, and those unknown TH3~? I would really appreciate that, and you can still add the pure TH3 kills into the TH3~ section, if you think TH4 doesn't matter. Anyways, I'll be doing a TH2 test soon (WAR/THF), and then move on to TH3 without WS/gearchange.

Edit:
I've updated my parser (http://ffxiut.com/parser). It now seperates different TH procs. However, there are some limitations, since it works off of the chatlog alone:
- You can't kill more than one mob at a time (AoE kills do work, just not randomly changing target and procing TH on both mobs for example)
- If you die it won't know if the TH effect on the mob has been reset, so it will assume whatever TH was on before is still on
- It won't show drop rates for items that didn't drop at all (if you kill leeches it may not show a Carbuncle's Ruby if none drops), so if you know a mob is supposed to drop something else, you'll need to manually calculate 0/x for that item
- It doesn't know what the "base" TH is, so for drops without visible TH procs, it will say "THX"

Note that I'm still working on it, and I don't have a dedicated testing site, so you might notice some strange output occasionally, but it won't mess up the drop rate data, that it does accurately by now.

[Arcon]

This time WAR90/THF45. Made sure to get TH on every mob by hitting them directly.

THX
Lesser Colibri
Name Drop rate Drop rate (%)
Colibri Beak 69/157 43.9%
Colibri Feather 97/157 61.8%

Just a small sample again, but as before, it falls very close within Thorny's reported stats, a bit higher on feathers, a bit lower on beaks. Assuming all items receive the same boost from TH (which isn't even proven yet, but I'll assume that's the case for "common" items, or non-NM drops), it evens out nicely to his reported drop rate.

I'll do TH3~ next.

[Arcon]

Next batch cut short, because some people can't behave. These results are clean though:

THX (assumed TH3)
Lesser Colibri
Name Drop rate Drop rate (%)
Colibri Feather 109/188 58.0%
Colibri Beak 97/188 51.6%

TH4
Lesser Colibri
Name Drop rate Drop rate (%)
Colibri Feather 31/46 67.4%
Colibri Beak 23/46 50.0%

TH5
Lesser Colibri
Name Drop rate Drop rate (%)
Colibri Feather 2/2 100.0%
Colibri Beak 1/2 50.0%

No gearswaps, no weapon skills, all TH procs accounted for. THF90/NIN45, no TH gear (TH3 base), all upgrades from melee hits. Another interesting tidbit... 4845 melee hits, 50 TH upgrades. I don't know if there was any testing done for this yet (there may have been, I'm a lazy researcher), but it seems the chance from melee procs to increase TH is 1%.

[Insaniac]

I got about the same results but because the difficulty of landing a TH5 once you land a TH4 is so much higher it throws the numbers off a lot. In other words you would have to change mobs instantly after procing TH to get an accurate reading based on procs/swings.

RUNNING TOTALS UPDATED

[Laphine]

Damn so, as expected, no base drop rate change. This is bad...

[Insaniac]

Just did a few Voidwatchs with no THF no Dipper Yuly and no Bounty shot and got a 2% TH bonus. I'm thinking this is from signet. Further support for the "sanction/signet/sigil = TH bonus" theory?

[noodles355]

but it seems the chance from melee procs to increase TH is 1%.I'm unconvinced on it being just a straight %. We need to explore the idea of higher damage giving higher chance of a proc. Nice base to start on though.

[Arcon]

I'm unconvinced on it being just a straight %. We need to explore the idea of higher damage giving higher chance of a proc. Nice base to start on though.

Yeah, me neither, although it's nice to know the ballpark. I'll update my parser to calulate average enemy HP and to note when TH procs occurred, both in absolute damage and relative damage.

[Insaniac]

I'm unconvinced on it being just a straight %. We need to explore the idea of higher damage giving higher chance of a proc. Nice base to start on though.The fact that I was landing every hit on the colibri for 200-350 with crits and still only got a 1% proc rate pretty much disproves the idea of damage playing a role. I also saw no higher of a % on my relic damage procs which all did 500-900 damage. I'm convinced it's a type of magic acc check followed by a dice roll. SA/TA either increases your m.acc or changes the dice roll to a coin flip or a combination of the 2. Some mobs are just incredibly difficult to proc no matter how much damage you do.

[noodles355]

The fact that I was landing every hit on the colibri for 200-350 with crits and still only got a 1% proc rate pretty much disproves the idea of damage playing a role.No, no it just doesn't.
How can you dismiss an idea that different damage results in different chances of TH proc when you only do the same damage?

[Byrth]

No, no it just doesn't.
How can you dismiss an idea that different damage results in different chances of TH proc when you only do the same damage?

Mayhaps you misunderstood. He sees several types of hits:
* Low damage, sub-100 non-crits
* 200~350+ damage crits
* ~300 damage non-crit relic procs
* 600~1000 damage crit relic procs

His point is that he doesn't see any difference in upgrade rate between those hits. If, for instance, hitting for 100 got him a 1% proc rate, then hitting for 1000 damage should get him a 10% proc rate. If he has, for instance, never seen an upgrade on one of his high-damage hits, hit damage probably doesn't matter.

[noodles355]

He didn't parse each type of hit with the number of TH procs per that type of hit. He parsed a total of all his hits including non-crits, crits and relic procs. So his test shows nothing about different ranges of damage and different chances of TH proc.

[Insaniac]

There was no noticeable difference between the proc rate on normal hits and Mandau triple damage procs, is what I'm saying. There is no way for me to parse what hits cause TH but it's not hard to eyeball how often they proced on my mandau procs. I believe it has happened 4 times in all of my samples maybe less and yes I have been watching for it. Triple procs do the same or more than SA and don't proc anywhere near as much. The idea that SAs damage boost is what causes higher procs just doesn't fit with what I'm seeing. I did some behemoths today main handing a D1 club to prevent killing it before the people I was THing for were satisfied. I actually proced more times on my main hand hitting for 7 than i did on my offhand TK hitting for 50-100. Once again it doesn't fit.

[noodles355]

Well, if you got 4 procs, then concidering the proc rate of Mandau is rported by you as being 5%, 5% of 4845 is 242. 4 hits in 242 is 1.65%.
On the remaining 95% of swings (4603) you got 46 procs. Which is 1.00%.

The sample size is too small of course. But from the data you've reported it does show an increase in TH procs with higher damage strikes.

I never said SA and TA cause higher procs because of the increased damage, but that it could be a factor anyway (and could still be a factor on SA and TA. I know my SA set is stronger than my TA by a good margin, and I'm fairly certain I get more procs on SA than TA.)

From the small sample you've reported, plus anacdotal evidence from a Twatstar thief on BG I was talking to, plus the logic behind it being fairly reasonable, there seems good reason to follow the hypothesis and see if there is any real truth to it.

[Nightstrike]

Just did a few Voidwatchs with no THF no Dipper Yuly and no Bounty shot and got a 2% TH bonus. I'm thinking this is from signet. Further support for the "sanction/signet/sigil = TH bonus" theory?

What about Treasure Hound kupower effect? That's supposed to give TH+1 and gilfinder while under the effect of signet i hear.

[Arcon]

What about Treasure Hound kupower effect? That's supposed to give TH+1 and gilfinder while under the effect of signet i hear.

I don't know about Gilfinder, but it definitely gives TH+1. But that's kind of a low sample to compare with. FYI, I did all my tests so far without signet/sigil/sanction, and I'll keep doing them without.

[Nightstrike]

yeah, gilfinder in general doesn't seem to do much. Heh, i remember a time when a friend played on thf for so long, she swore TH only effected treasure chests. XD Had to remind her of the day's before those(which she did play before those)

But anyways, from what iv read... is it just me, or are TH3 and 4 worse than 2? ... then again, it could be because a different amount of mobs are killed each time, so it's messing with my understanding of this... lol

[Laphine]

yeah TH3 seems to be worse than TH2 (traits only). But it could just be that TH3 does something different entirely (don't think we have proved the TH3 being a simple TH+1). Or it could just be that there is a drop rate cap, in a sense that items over x% base drop rate doesn't get the extra roll TH3 would provide.

[Insaniac]

What about Treasure Hound kupower effect? That's supposed to give TH+1 and gilfinder while under the effect of signet i hear.


I thought about that after I posted and logged on to double check if treasure hound was in effect but the kupopowers had faded lol. Either way Treasure hound is only TH+1 and wouldn't account for the +2%.

[Arcon]

I thought about that after I posted and logged on to double check if treasure hound was in effect but the kupopowers had faded lol. Either way Treasure hound is only TH+1 and wouldn't account for the +2%.

What was the sample size for the +2%?

[Insaniac]

yeah TH3 seems to be worse than TH2 (traits only). But it could just be that TH3 does something different entirely (don't think we have proved the TH3 being a simple TH+1). Or it could just be that there is a drop rate cap, in a sense that items over x% base drop rate doesn't get the extra roll TH3 would provide.I thought about the possibility of TH3 only kicking in on items with low drop rates and if that is the case it almost makes it even more worthless. We already know how worthless TH is in voidwatch meaning 99% of the THing done in the game happens in abyssea. With !!procs theres no way anything you would be targeting has lower than a 25% drop rate which is the same as colibri feathers. The 2nd emp item also easily has higher than a 25% drop rate meaning that in abyssea TH3 would actually be completely worthless.

I still lean towards it only being TH+1 due to the fact that it's included in proc levels. If it did something else entirely I don't think it would count towards your "TH effectiveness".

[Laphine]

Well TH1 and TH2 are both inside the proc levels, and they have no relation to the probable 1% drop rate boost, so no reason for TH3 (whatever it does) not to be inside as well. But yeah i agree the prospect is not looking good for us.

[Insaniac]

My guess is that TH2 no matter how obtained is gonna have the same effect as trait TH2. Would be easiest to test with a ???89/THF44 with the TH sash. Or say you have atma of dread and the TH belt. If I'm right even /thf could be dead inside abyssea or outside with treasure hound. I don't have the sash to test my theory though. AnywHay, what I'm getting at is that I think TH1/2 are always a reroll via proc, +1 gear, atma, or kupo power. If we can prove that then it's very very likely that the TH3 trait exists only as TH+1 and serves no other purpose. Just call it a hunch based on how much lazy programming we've been seeing recently.

[Vold]

I don't know. My diorite/raxa drop rate has increased considerably since 90 on aura statues. These days I don't go longer than a hour or so to get a diorite to drop. Often it's within 30 minutes. Raxa has been dropping considerably more often too, considering I never saw a single one drop back at 75. Water drop rate went up, too. I almost want to say that it's possibly the drop rates were increased along with other increases in sky, but that doesn't explain away the unrelated raxa drops.

I do know that I haven't gotten a single of anything to drop without procs.

[Arcon]

I don't know. My diorite/raxa drop rate has increased considerably since 90 on aura statues. These days I don't go longer than a hour or so to get a diorite to drop. Often it's within 30 minutes. Raxa has been dropping considerably more often too, considering I never saw a single one drop back at 75. Water drop rate went up, too. I almost want to say that it's possibly the drop rates were increased along with other increases in sky, but that doesn't explain away the unrelated raxa drops.

I do know that I haven't gotten a single of anything to drop without procs.

It would be very interesting to get some drop rate data from a rare drop like that. However, it would have to be quite the sample size. If you're willing to do some testing (just passively), I would appreciate it.

I'm sorry for the lack of further testing, but I was quite demotivated by the preliminary results. Maybe once I'm bored again, I may go out to continue the testing further, with TH5+.

[Karbuncle]

I'd have to hand-record all my results. But i might.

[Byrth]

Well, I went out with TH0 and killed about 200 Aura Statues for the final stage of my TP Bonus Fusetto, got 2 Diorites (mule and I). Popped one before the second dropped, so there were no kills when I had two in inventory. I can get more accurate numbers if I can figure out what day I killed them on.

[Insaniac]

I've been busy with other stuff recently. I'll blast out some more samples eventually but like Arcon I've lost a lot of my motivation.

[Phen]

Well we do have a decentish pool going, hey dev team are we wrong? Confirm or deny (preferably with some math rather than phrases like "considerably")

[Nightstrike]

That or find someone that enjoys doing this kind of thing and has the know how, let them lose and sit back and wait. lol

[Insaniac]

I really don't mind doing it but I've been working on a few things that I wanted to get done before the update. It's tedious but fun at the same time. I seriously don't see myself testing TH3+ vs. TH2 on diorites though. The sample would most likely have to be huge to get the margin of error low enough to see anything definitive.

[Babekeke]

You can all stop testing the effects of TH, I've worked it out!
It's the same as Rogue's Roll XD

Die RollTH level .......No THF /THF ......With THFTHF Main
1.....................................2%.................8%
2.....................................2%.................8%
3.....................................3%.................9%
4.....................................4%.................10%
5 (Lucky)..........................12%...............18%
6.....................................5%.................11%
7.....................................6%.................12%
8.....................................6%.................12%
9 (Unlucky).......................1%.................7%
10...................................8%.................14%
11...................................19%................25%
12+ (Bust) .......................-6%................-6%

I'm not quite sure how you get more than TH5 with THF Sub, but nevermind. Maybe BLU/THF will be able to achieve this after their update :)

[Vold]

WAR/THF so far: Yeah... 2 diorite in 7 kills. I went through the trouble of gearing war and getting up to sky AND AFKing for the night to start today so I guess I'll just let further drops rot. I'm not stopping at 7 kills -.-

If this holds up I'm gonna have to say that diorite drop rates and probably water were increased. I don't know why raxa would be increased but I'm going to keep tabs on those while I do the diorites.

[Arcon]

Did they change that you can get rare drops if everyone in your party already had them?

[Karbuncle]

No, He'll skew the results unless he drops one.

Or he only plans to test Raxa? or pop Ulli

[Insaniac]

I don't really remember raxa being that rare. It's been at least 2 years since I've farmed a diorite though so idk.

[Vold]

yeah I remembered the whole ra thing before I continued. I did stop to kill Ulli but I also left for the day because weekends are best for bazaar sales :x I'll start my trials again tomorrow.

[Vold]

I never saw a single raxa back at 75, granted I didn't see a billion hours doing end game up there. Still, raxa has been documented as much as diorite to be around the same drop rate of 1-2%ish. Of course as we all know a wiki is just a wiki so best case let's just say the truth is about 10%. So far I'm seeing about a 10% drop rate increase on them both with TH3+. That's from my personal memory, hence why I'm bothering with /thf farming. These things are dropping left and right for me so it's time to see what TH2 can do. Eventually I'll get several hundred kills and see how it pans out over time but I suspect I'm going to end up seeing TH3 giving a considerable boost to raxa drops, and diorites themselves having received a boost in drop rate for the new Sky era.

I have very good reasons to hang around in sky to make money so I really should end up with thousands of kills to see one way or another just what the deal is. I'll *try* to make the farming even between THF and /thf but I stress it's hard to not farm on THF so THF will probably end up having more data than /thf. If nothing else my current plans are to at least get 1k kills on war/thf to document. Yeah... very good reasons to live in Sky these days.

[Insaniac]

That's great man =) Post your infos here and I will add it to the OP.

[Vold]

Here's some LOL numbers to celebrate the start of my grand journey up in Sky:

WAR/THF - total goal today - 100 Aura statue kills, even if it means dropping diorites.

100 Aura Statue kills, goal complete.

Drops overall - 6 crests, 3 high crest, 9 golem shards, 4 geodes, 47 mythril ores, 0 raxa, 11 diorite.

11 for 100 on diorite. 0 raxa.


Now I'm going to get on THF and do the same exact thing just to see how things are comparing to each other after a mere 100 kills.

[Vold]

Round 2 - same test but as THF/NIN +3 in TH gear

100 Aura Statue kills, speed killing with few TH procs, about half of the kills had TH7 on, with 8 being very rare before statues ran out of HP.

9 crests, 6 high crests, 5 geode, 7 golem shard, 53 mythril ore, 0 raxa, 7 diorite


Results, though small, are interesting to say the least.

Final Round 3 tomorrow - same test as THF/NIN but slow killing for TH procs, no weapon skills, pure melee, SATA as much as possible. Generally my best results with TH7+ on nearly every single mob, TH8 will probably end up on half of the kills or more, and very rarely 9. After wards I go silent for a few weeks but I suspect when I return to this thread I'll have a far higher kill count. All depends on my will to mass kill Byakko. I won't be throwing away diorites anymore after tomorrow's test.

[Shiyo]

I thought TH could only increase item drops to 50% drop rate?

[Arcon]

I thought TH could only increase item drops to 50% drop rate?

Why would you think that?

[Babekeke]

I thought TH could only increase item drops to 50% drop rate?

It probably is only 50%. A larger sample size would likely show the average dropping slightly.

Despite it only being 100 sample, it's quite clear that TH 3-8 isn't making anything like a substantial difference.

If anything it makes me think back to the old 'moon phase' urban legend. Or perhaps just what the mob had for breakfast that morning?

[noodles355]

Going to post my Carabosse data. So far all but 1 have been done with no yellow, and that single one yellow was spammed (it was dispel -.-) so effectively none had yellow:

11 Carabosse
1st Gem (100%): 19/19
2nd Gem: 16/19
Card of Voyage: 16/19
Coin of Voyage: 0/19
All had TH between 7 and 9 inclusive.
No data for Afflictors/Hachimaki as I couln't be bothered having them fill up the treasure pool and having to toss them each time so have one of each on both characters (r/e).
I'm upset that TH seems to be having no affect at all on the coin of voyage drops. Are they only able to drop with a yellow proc?

[Insaniac]

I'm upset that TH seems to be having no affect at all on the coin of voyage drops. Are they only able to drop with a yellow proc?I've only ever seen them drop with yellow so I believe that is the case.

[Byrth]

Yeah, they're grellow only. All the drops they added in that patch to Scars and Visions are like that, with one grellow and one base drop.

[Insaniac]

I thought TH could only increase item drops to 50% drop rate? Nah the feather data we have shows that TH2/3 bumps them up to about 60%. Their base being about 25%. This lines up with the 2 reroll theory for TH1/2 and shows that TH3 either does almost nothing or does something we don't understand yet.

[Insaniac]

Added Volds numbers to the running totals. Left out the seals and geodes due to the drop rates being skewed by 5minute timers and weather/day. Still looking pretty grim for TH3+.

[Byrth]

171 kills with TH0 net me:

2 Diorites
1 Raxa
17 Mythril Ore
10 Golem shards
47 Light Crystals

[Vold]

About to start round 3. Additional goal today and from here on out: make note of TH level per diorite and raxa drop when on THF main. Expectations: 15 diorite, at least some raxa when TH8 or higher is in effect. Let's see how it pans out... edit with results coming in a couple hours.

[Byrth]

Just broad observations so far, pooling between TH2 and TH6 and comparing to TH0:
* Raxa Drop rate is approximately the same in all cases
* Golem Shard drop rate is approximately the same in all cases
* Diorite Drop rate is dramatically higher for TH2/6
* Mythril Ore drop rate is dramatically higher for TH2/6 (~10% -> ~50%)

It makes me wonder if only specific slots (for instance, the first two) are enhanced by Treasure Hunter. Once again, we fall into the Treasure Hunter testing trap of not knowing the item groupings for this monster. Vold, if possible could you check what the item groupings are? Like, "Can I get a Mythril Ore, Golem Shard, and Diorite off the same kill?"

[Laphine]

I have a 249 kills here. It's an oldie, so probably not that useful considering the possible drop rate changes.

Drop rates:



Groupings:

[Byrth]

Does your grouping thing maintain the exact order things dropped in? I've noticed that things always drop their items in the same order (if the slot fills). If that's the case, then you can limit it down to:
Slot 1: Diorite
Slot 2: Mythril Ore
Slot 3: Golem shard
Slot 4: Beastman/Kindred Seal
Slot 5: Party 1 Light Crystal
Slot 6: Party 2 Light Crystal
Slot 7: Party 3 Light Crystal
Slot 8: Raxa (could also reversed with slot 7)

For reference, and a reason why I think "first two slots" may not be correct, Jailers have:
Slot 1: Virtue
Slot 2: OAT weapon
Slot 3: Torque

So if it was just "First two" it wouldn't affect the torques. Admittedly, I don't have any kind of a parse proving that TH affects torques, but it just seems unlikely that it doesn't.

[Laphine]

Did you that possible grouping out of my post? Idk if the drop order was preserved. Could have changed if the chat bugged i guess, so i'm not sure.

One curiosity: although i didn't get both beast and kindred dropping, seems like they are reserved in different slots. Beastmen being before mythril ore and kindred before the light crystals.

[Byrth]

That's true. I'd always assumed they were in the same slot, but I guess there's no reason to assume that really. Also, if you were killing multiple Aura Statues with multiple parties (potentially up to 3?) the order could be a little messed up if you killed two at the same time.

[Vold]

Half way done. Current numbers @50 kills:

9 diorite, 28 mythril ore, surprisingly I'm still sitting on 0 raxa.. , 7 golem shards

Diorites

TH6 0
TH7 6
TH8 1
TH9 2
TH10 0

Started to keep count of procs alittle late, may kill extras to reach 100 for comparison.. undecided, but would need 20 extra kills:

Kill count
TH6 4
TH7 15
TH8 8
TH9 2
Th10 1

What I would like to do is get a 100 count for each TH effect, just to see the numbers. That's gonna take a few days though...

[Motenten]

KParser doesn't retain the order that items drop. Items are stored in the database in the order they're encountered and not revised beyond that. So even if it dropped in your theoretical order, Byrth, if you got a mythril ore the first kill, then a diorite and mythril ore the second kill, the order in the database would be 1. mythril ore, 2. diorite.

As for the groupings, those are only sorted by number of drops, and then I think the items list is alphabetized.

[Arcon]

I have a 249 kill TH2+2 parse here. It's an oldie, so probably not that useful considering the possible drop rate changes.

What TH was on? And did you toss/use Diorites?


Did you that possible grouping out of my post? Idk if the drop order was preserved. Could have changed if the chat bugged i guess, so i'm not sure.

From what I can tell, chatlog maintains drop order even among extreme lag. Some things seem to be chronologically inseperable, others not. AoE damage, for one, is not, neither are additional effects. Critical hit notices and their corresponding damage message, as well as used abilities are, as far as I can tell. I'll need to add that to my parser as well, could determine possible groupings algorithmically.

[Vold]

How sure are we with the whole 1 crest every 5 min deal? Is that limited to everyone in PT or just per person? because I'm seeing 2 kindred's crest in my pool right now.

[Byrth]

You can get one seal/crest every 5 minutes per party in your alliance. You can get one crystal every kill per party member with Signet.

[Laphine]

that was an old parse as i said (back from jan 2010). Was implying that there was no new level cap. And diorite seemed to be much rarer as well. Anyway, it was only one party with 3 ppl with a very bad luck too lol.

[Laphine]

damn internet...

[Zirael]

How sure are we with the whole 1 crest every 5 min deal? Is that limited to everyone in PT or just per person? because I'm seeing 2 kindred's crest in my pool right now.
It's more less 5min. If you pay attention, you'll see that the old seal will drop to someone's inventory within like 30s of the new seal showing up. Happens a lot when I duo etc. Seals drop almost precisely every 5min if you've got good killspeed.

[Vold]

Final results - THF/NIN slow kills, no WSs, solo THF DPS, sleeps for SA, TAs on RDM - deducted first 20 kills for extra 20 kills:

Aura Statue X100
Procs on statue when it died:
TH6 - 12
TH7 - 48
TH8 - 32
TH9 - 6
TH10 - 2

Bottom line - TH7 or better on 88 kills.

Drops

Mythril Ore - 66
Diorite - 18
Raxa - 0
Golem Shards - 15

Diorites

TH6 - 1(1/12)
TH7 - 8(8/48)
TH8 - 6(6/32)
TH9 - 2(2/6)
TH10 - 1(1/2)

Little bit surprised I didn't see a single raxa. Ah well.

Tidbits of interest, groupings:

1)Ore, shard, crest, geode
2)ore, geode
3)ore, shard, crest
4)shard, crest
5)ore, crest, geode
6)ore, diorite, crest
7)ore, high crest
8)ore, crest
9)diorite, geode
10)ore,shard,crest
11)ore, shard,geode
12)crest,geode
13)ore, shard
14)ore, diorite

This is all the different groupings of 2+ drops that I got when I started keeping track on the second half of testing, in order. Someone else can discern what is what in it. My brain hurts after doing this test all day.. I am pretty certain though that ore is first and diorite is second at the very least. Diorite always followed Mythril ore unless no ore dropped, then diorite was first. I have signet but beastmen control sky atm so no crystals or seals. My quick guess - ore, dio, shard, crest, geode, raxa(raxa is always last in my experience.... I think.)

I also kept up with Mythril ore to an extent.. TH8 might be off by 1 or 3 ores that 7 got instead. I think I was spacing out near the end there but for the sake of things I'll just assume the below:

TH6 - 5(5/12))
TH7 - 38(38/48)
TH8 - 18(18/32)
TH9 - 3(3/6)
TH10 - 2(2/2)

[noodles355]

You can get one seal/crest every 5 minutes per party in your alliance.This is not true. Farming carabosse duo whm+thf, 1 party, no alliance, I often had 2 crests/high crests in the pool at the same time.

[Arcon]

This is not true. Farming carabosse duo whm+thf, 1 party, no alliance, I often had 2 crests/high crests in the pool at the same time.

I remember the same thing, happened right after I defended this assumption too. Since I've never seen it happen with Seals, I'm guessing it's Crest-exclusive.

[Byrth]

I remember the same thing, happened right after I defended this assumption too. Since I've never seen it happen with Seals, I'm guessing it's Crest-exclusive.

I've seen it happen with seals, when we were farming for the Key Item before entering the Cuchu mantle BC. We took it to be sort of an inverse-salvage glitch, where the game thinks we're two parties but we're actually one.

Regardless, I did a shitton of fast merit parties without seeing two seals in the pool at the same time. Some friends used to cast lots on seals in their merit parties to try and get them to drop faster, and it didn't work. If that rule is wrong, it's not far wrong.

[noodles355]

I'm thinking it might have gotten ninja-changed recently, because the first time i noticed it I was like "wut?" but then it happened a heap more times.

[Insaniac]

Well.. the samples are too small to say definitively but if the rates hold up when the samples are bigger the only thing I could think of is that TH works in tiers... And the tiers would be your 3rd or 4th reroll. I guess that would kinda make sense for SE. We would see no increased drop rate on standard trash mobs because they would die before TH procs, but anything that took a little while to kill would see the benefits. From your numbers I would say 1 tier would be at TH7 but it's extremely early in the sample to make that kind of assumption. I'm actually excited to see more numbers now.

[Vold]

I'll update WAR and THF kill count every 200 kills. Slow killing is kind of murder on the attention span so I might stop at 500 for that. It's not going to be 1,000 or 10,000 but 500 kills is still a moderate kill count to get a idea of probable drop rates with procs in effect on a grand scale. Also, every time I farm I plan to at least leave with 1 diorite for Ulli kill, and the target kill count will be 50 per trip. So I will still be dropping diorites. They seem plentiful enough anyway.

I'm not a fan of wiki numbers. Sometimes what I see on there and what I see in game are far different. I prefer to test for as long as possible to cut down on those skewed numbers. Like for example I'm 1/1 for tav bell on my last four trips to farm it for people. Now it might be possible that I could go down there and go 4/4 in a row but really, that's going to be damn improbable. I want to avoid the "luck" factor with this testing as much as possible.

I still expect to see raxa drop rate rise at least some but it's probably going to be far less than my presumption of 10%. Maybe it's still early but after 320 total kills and 0 raxa with TH2-10, I'm pretty damn sure that 10% guess is way off and I was catching some luck before on multiple trips.

[Laphine]

my 2010 kills showed 2% drop rate for raxa lol.

[Arcon]

Found myself murdering some more birds for science this morning:

THX (assumed TH3)
Lesser Colibri
Name Drop rate Drop rate (%)
Colibri Feather 122/207 58.9%
Colibri Beak 96/207 46.4%

TH4
Lesser Colibri
Name Drop rate Drop rate (%)
Colibri Feather 16/24 66.7%
Colibri Beak 15/24 62.5%

Combined with my previous data, that brings the totals to:
THX (assumed TH3)
Lesser Colibri
Name Drop rate Drop rate (%)
Colibri Feather 231/389 59.4%
Colibri Beak 193/389 49.6%

TH4
Lesser Colibri
Name Drop rate Drop rate (%)
Colibri Feather 47/70 67.1%
Colibri Beak 38/70 54.3%

Think that's big enough for TH3 sample, gonna move on to TH4 and TH5 next. I wanna keep upgraded TH4/5 procs seperate, in case upgraded TH behaves differently from gear TH (I suspect not).

Also, funny thing... was in an alliance of 3 parties (1/1/2 people for most of it), and I never had more than one Seal in the treasure pool, and we got seals regularly (average time between seals < 6min, but bever < 5min).

[noodles355]

Wonder if there's any testing on TH affecting key item drops. Because I'm getting a lot of Cara's KIs without proccing red. Appear to be getting KIs without red proc much more often on Thf/Nin (TH6-8 usually) than on War/Sam.

[Byrth]

Also, funny thing... was in an alliance of 3 parties (1/1/2 people for most of it), and I never had more than one Seal in the treasure pool, and we got seals regularly (average time between seals < 6min, but bever < 5min).

Were the other people killing at all?

[Arcon]

Were the other people killing at all?

Good point, they weren't. Did they need to have hate to count for kills? Or even do the killshot?

The first was an AFK person to leech kills, which I didn't mind, the second was my WHM mule. It may have gotten hate on some mobs occasionally (when hasting), but not much from even that, since most spells landed after the mob died. If I get into that situation again, I'll split up the melees to different parties, or at least have the WHM cast Dia (if they're fast enough).

[Byrth]

I'm pretty sure that killshot matters.

[Purpleeyes]

I like thinking about it like this:
TH1 = Regular items.
TH2 = Rare items.
TH3 = Ex items (like seals in Abyssea)

And then when you get an upgrade it just boosts those or something.

[Insaniac]

I like thinking about it like this:
TH1 = Regular items.
TH2 = Rare items.
TH3 = Ex items (like seals in Abyssea)

And then when you get an upgrade it just boosts those or something.Doesn't work like that. There is a noticable drop rate increase between TH1 and 2 on all items.

[noodles355]

I'm pretty sure that killshot matters.
Dunno, I've had double crests in pool on Faeries in La Thiene, and I always killshot on Thf because trying to azure them on whm/sch is a bloody pain.

[Lokithor]

This whole business of pumping up the TH placebo to higher numbers (that don't appear to actually do anything) reminds me of a great scene in one of my favorite movies - "This is Spinal Tap".

I guess the devs just wanted to turn up TH to eleven.

[Vold]

Proc kills updated:

Aura Statue X200
Procs on statue when it died:
TH6 - 23
TH7 - 88
TH8 - 73
TH9 - 14
TH10 - 2

Drops

Mythril Ore - 104
Diorite - 25
Raxa - 5
Golem Shards - 26

Diorites

TH6 - 3/23
TH7 - 10/88
TH8 - 8/73
TH9 - 3/14
TH10 - 1/2

Mythril Ore:

TH6 - 9/23
TH7 - 53/88
TH8 - 34/73
TH9 - 6/14
TH10 - 2/2

Golem Shard - kill count to keep score @100:

TH6 - 1/100
TH7 - 4/100
TH8 - 5/100
TH9 - 0
TH10 - 0

Raxa

TH6
TH7
TH8 - 4/50
TH9 - 1/50
TH10

[Vold]

Interesting tidbit tonight: I moved to Ulli's area to kill statues. Out of 50 kills, 5 raxa dropped. Mythril ore seemed to take a steep dive in drop rate with only 10 dropping. Shards were about normal with 5. Diorite 3(which is about normal for this spot imo, it's where I did most of my farming before but I chose the other area for more kills and no downtime waiting for repops for the purpose of this testing) Ulli is the last spot I know for certain that raxa were dropping so I moved there.

If these drop rates hold up then I'm not real sure what to do. It gives me a headache just considering that the two spots for them have different rates but for now I'm going to hang around Ulli's area and see what I get out of raxa drops. Old spot 0/370, new spot 5/50.

[Byrth]

I was farming Ulli's area for my TH0 sample.

Edit:
Unfortunately, it is known that monsters with the same name in the same zone can have different drop pools. For instance, Ghrah M. Chips can only drop from first floor Ghrah (in both zones), but not second floor Ghrah. This is the first example I've heard of where drop rates vary on the same type of monster within a zone, though you could view the first example as a special case of the second.

Now, tin-foil-hat-ACTIVATE, but if one were to hypothetically look at the .dats, one might see that there's no noticeable difference between top and bottom floor Ghrahs / Aura Statues. Similarly, there's no real reason why monster drop rates couldn't vary between monsters on the same floor. Who would have predicted that Raxa only drops off Aura statues near Ulli's spawn point? Maybe (in addition) it only drops off the third, fifth, and seventh statues at Ulli's spawn point. We could be discovering a whole new sampling problem.

[Insaniac]

That would be... just... awful. One would have to dat mod monster names to be sure that all of them in that specific area could drop any one item. On low drop rate items like raxa or diorite you would have to get drops off of most of the individual mobs in the area before you could say for sure and that would power suck.

[Vold]

Well on the positive side at least I'm getting raxa to drop for certain now so we can start seeing some serious numbers for it. War/thf will have to stick to the other spot because of statue numbers so I feel certain that by time my sky farming comes to an end in some months into the future, I will know whether or not those suckers drop raxa.

I'm getting started really late today for test 201-250 but I napped earlier so I'm good to go for Sky farming for a few hours. I'm very curious to see drop rates from last night to hold up, though not so much the ore. It's funding my GS mule with mythril ingots for GP :x

Also, I suppose I need to spend some time on /thf at Ulli's area assuming I'll only see raxa there. I guess I'll hit the area up and have something to hold my attention in between respawns. The possibility of skewed drop rates on statues makes comparing numbers to wiki almost pointless.

[SpankWustler]

Unfortunately, it is known that monsters with the same name in the same zone can have different drop pools. For instance, Ghrah M. Chips can only drop from first floor Ghrah (in both zones), but not second floor Ghrah. This is the first example I've heard of where drop rates vary on the same type of monster within a zone, though you could view the first example as a special case of the second.

Now, tin-foil-hat-ACTIVATE, but if one were to hypothetically look at the .dats, one might see that there's no noticeable difference between top and bottom floor Ghrahs / Aura Statues. Similarly, there's no real reason why monster drop rates couldn't vary between monsters on the same floor. Who would have predicted that Raxa only drops off Aura statues near Ulli's spawn point? Maybe (in addition) it only drops off the third, fifth, and seventh statues at Ulli's spawn point. We could be discovering a whole new sampling problem.

This is depressing on so many levels. (http://www.greatneckcameraclub.org/images07/dorothyMevorah/crying-child-4x3.jpg) It's a really great point, though.

[Vold]

This will be my new post for updating. For now my research previously is retired and starting anew in Ulli camp. War/thf is next for a quick 100 kills for first glance comparison sake. War/thf data will follow THF data for THII numbers for overall comparison once THF is done.


Ulli Camp - Aura Statue x100

Procs:

TH6 - 12
TH7 - 41
TH8 - 40
TH9 - 7
TH10 - 0

Drops:

Raxa - 7/100
Mythril Ore - 26/100
Golem Shard - 13/100
Diorite - 5/100

Diorites

TH6 - 0/12
TH7 - 1/41
TH8 - 3/40
TH9 - 1/7
TH10 - 0/0

Mythril Ore

TH6 - 4/12
TH7 - 8/41
TH8 - 11/40
TH9 - 3/7
TH10 - 0/0

Golem Shard

TH6 - 2/12
TH7 - 8/41
TH8 - 3/40
TH9 - 0/0
TH10 - 0/0

Raxa

TH6 - 0/0
TH7 - 0/0
TH8 - 5/40
TH9 - 2/7
TH10 - 0/0

[Byrth]

All of the Ulli results match up almost perfectly with my TH0 sample, assuming no difference between TH2 and TH3 and assuming we know what TH2 does.

[Vold]

WAR/THF - Ulli Camp - Aura Statue x100

Mythril Ore - 21/100
Raxa - 2/100
Diorite - 0/100
Golem Shard - 9/100

Nope, no diorite on me to speak of. That 0/100 is for reals, and I did all 100 at once. Now I go to pass out in bed...

[noodles355]

Going to post my Carabosse data.

19 Carabosse
1st Gem (100%): 19/19
2nd Gem: 16/19
Partial update. Didn't record every fight as above is only 15 gems. However I'm certain three other fights yielded only one gem, putting it at 9 fights more:
First Gem (100%): 28/28
2nd Gem: 22/28 (78.5% Drop rate.)
Total Gems: 50.

All fights were me tanking on Thf/Nin so anywhere from TH6 to TH9.
Going to compare it to my CC data (which I will update after kills). Not posting +2 mat drops for CC as I yellow proc it every other fight. All CC kills are done on Rdm/Blm and Whm/Thf (TH2).

First Lantern (100%): 7/7
2nd Lantern: 5/7
Total Lanterns: 12

Will be interesting by the time I get to 50 lanterns how different the drop rate will be on the second empy material. Obviously 25-30 kills is a tiny sample size, but it's a start and concerns an actually important drop.

[Byrth]

I went 1/12 on 2-shell drop Glavoids when starting Ukon duo tanking it with a TH6 (base) THF. Shit is random and I'm bitter with it.

[Vold]

I went through two Glavoids and Itzs for Twash and Ukon. There's nothing a person says that really helps when you only see 1x drop on that stuff... It just fricking stings when it happens on most visions NMs.

I've been using my stockpile of stones for Byakko lately that I got during testing but I'm all out now so I'll be adding in more TH numbers in the coming days.

[noodles355]

Took advantage of everyone EXPing and 2boxed 8 CC pops (2 at a time). Now up to 9/15 on 2nd lantern. 24/50 overall. Again just TH2.

[Delvish]

This sounds like a job for the TH testing crew! Raxias recently posted in the forums about geodes and if TH affects the drop rate. Fairly simple test I think, just need 100 mob sample, and a 0 TH control. I suspect geodes to fall in the same loot pool as seals and crests, but could be wrong.

[Byrth]

We will probably get something about this in a day or two, but here's a link (http://www.ffxiah.com/forum/topic/26003/dev-th9-vs-th10-whats-better/1/#1576049)to an ffxiah translation of something written on the JP official forums.

Apparently it mostly says that TH10 is better than TH9.

I think there might actually be more to this than the post indicates. Perhaps TH10 is the next tier of TH, while TH9 is still the same potency as TH2?

[Zirael]

From what I see, all they say is: we killed 500 mobs with TH9 and 500 with TH10 and TH10 was better, whilst in both cases drop rates were slightly higher than expected.
Where's my sample distribution data, where are SD numbers, %RSD numbers, confidence levels?
In 4 hours Camate is going to come here and say TH10>TH9. And I ask: by how much? 1% difference with 95% confidence?
Bananas are more yellow than lemons - wow, thanks for the info!

Edit: To Camate (and whoever did the testing for us), I know you are linguist, not mathematician, but we are talking science here. As soon as you come here and make a claim based on empirical data, the good scientific practice is to backup your claim with your methodology (this part you've kinda done) and data/sample distribution. Until this can be independently reviewed and verified (test repeatability), your claim remains a proposed thesis. The guys in this thread (and other forums) are serious about testing this, show them your data.

[Camate]

Our Community Team counterpart over in Japan, Mocchi, with the aid of the QA team, decided it was time to do his own kind of Myth Busters, FFXI style to determine if the myth about the drop rate of Treasure Hunter 10 being worse than Treasure Hunter 9 was true or not.

They headed out to Mount Zhayolm to slay 1000 Sulphuric Jagils. 500 with Treasure Hunter 9 and an additional 500 with Treasure Hunter 10.

So was it true…or is this just another myth that got busted?





1. Is the Treasure Hunter effect really getting stronger like it should?
When the Treasure Hunter effect increased, we checked not only the message displayed, but the actual values that were originally set and found that it was increasing like it should.

2. TH9 vs. TH10
Since it would take a ridiculous amount of time to test this by manually increasing the Treasure Hunter effect to 9 or 10 via attacks and what not, we prepared special equipment that gave us Treasure Hunter+9 and Treasure Hunter+10 and tested it on MNK/WHM, removing all the other equipment. As a result of our testing, we determined that we got more Pugil Scales with Treasure Hunter 10.


880
※This is a screenshot from actual testing.



While we don’t want to be the destroyers of anyone’s dreams, let us know if there are any other FFXI myths you would like busted :)

[Kalilla]

Camate, the super speedy translator :D <3

[MarkovChain]

2. TH9 vs. TH10
Since it would take a ridiculous amount of time to test this by manually increasing the Treasure Hunter effect to 9 or 10 via attacks and what not

Which basically means you guys are admitting that putting more than TH3 on a mob is useless, which basically means TH+ gear is useless. Give me a reason to bring a thf. (at least you admit TH9+ is useless, so why even implement it, make it cap at TH10).

[Arcon]

Our Community Team counterpart over in Japan, Mocchi, with the aid of the QA team, decided it was time to do his own kind of Myth Busters, FFXI style to determine if the myth about the drop rate of Treasure Hunter 10 being worse than Treasure Hunter 9 was true or not.

That was a myth?


While we don’t want to be the destroyers of anyone’s dreams, let us know if there are any other FFXI myths you would like busted :)

TH itself is the biggest myth in FFXI present, past and foreseeable future. Clear that up please.

Edit:

Which basically means you guys are admitting that putting more than TH3 on a mob is useless, which basically means TH+ gear is useless. Give me a reason to bring a thf. (at leats you admit TH9+ is useless, so why implement it).

Wrong inference. They didn't imply that at all. THF has free TH6 at least, 0 time, 0 effort. And do not ask if TH6 is really better than TH3, otherwise they'll waste more time testing useless stuff.

(Also, subbed you only get TH2, not TH3. If you say that TH3 is useful, you just gave yourself a reason to bring a THF.)

[Mizuharu]

I have something I'd liked tested that could be considered a myth. Does moon phase play any role in anything? People say that it's a fact that it helps with synths and fishing (which I can see since the moon phase does affect the tides in the real world,) but drop rates and treasures in a chest? And augments on armor from Field Parchments/Dominion Notes? >_>

(people will call it useless, but I'm just going to leave this question here.)

[Phafi]

Since it would take a ridiculous amount of time to test this by manually increasing the Treasure Hunter effect to 9 or 10 via attacks and what not, we prepared special equipment that gave us Treasure Hunter+9 and Treasure Hunter+10 and tested it on MNK/WHM, removing all the other equipment. As a result of our testing, we determined that we got more Pugil Scales with Treasure Hunter 10.


While we don’t want to be the destroyers of anyone’s dreams, let us know if there are any other FFXI myths you would like busted :)

I see what you did there.

[scaevola]

Silly rumors about Treasure Hunter could be eliminated completely if you guys would just give up the act and tell us the numbers behind the trait.

[Arcon]

Silly rumors about Treasure Hunter could be eliminated completely if you guys would just give up the act and tell us the numbers behind the trait.

I believe they/he did this test outside of the dev team's territory. I don't think the dev team would even need to test it, they could just know if it's better or not, unless they're not sure of their own code. Which, thinking about it, would explain a lot..

[Malthar]

How about clearing up the myth that Cloudsplitter really sucks as it is?

[Alhanelem]

I think one thing people need to remember when they say thing like "th3/4/5/X give less additional effect than the first tier"- Virtually all job traits give more additional effect on the first level than the extra levels.

Meaning (example):
Store TP I gives +10 Store TP (Benefit over zero Store TP: +10)
Store TP II gives +15 Store TP (Benefit over Store TP I: +5)
Store tp III gives +20 Store TP (Benefit over Store TP II: +5)
... etc

So let's just make up some numbers here so people can understand the implication this has for treasure hunter. Let's just say TH I adds 1 to the percentage drop rate for items. Assuming Treasure Hunter increased in effectiveness in the same manner as other job traits, each additional tier of TH after the first would add only 0.5 to the drop percentages. You're still gaining effectiveness, just at a slower rate than the initial boost.

(Disclaimer: I'm not claiming that TH actually works as described above, I'm only using it to illustrate how additional job trait tiers go.)


That was a myth?There are a lot of people claiming that you can get just as much increased treasure by having a sub THF as by having a main THF and that the extra boost from TH procs and higher level trait on THF doesn't make a difference. Thus, the community team is here to let you know that's BS and that more TH is always better.

[Arcon]

There are a lot of people claiming that you can get just as much increased treasure by having a sub THF as by having a main THF and that the extra boost from TH procs and higher level trait on THF doesn't make a difference. Thus, the community team is here to let you know that's BS and that more TH is always better.

But Camate/Mocchi said that the myth wasn't that TH9 vs. TH10 makes no difference, but that TH10 was worse than TH9. And that's an absurd claim in any way I can imagine. No one could possibly have the means to test that even semi-reliably. The best base TH we can get is TH7, meaning you'd need 3 upgrades to get TH10. You can only reliably test it on NMs, and where do you get large enough NM samples for that? And I'm not talking low-tier Abyssea NMs, cause they can die faster than Colibris outside of Abyssea. So it would have to be something like 200 KS99 runs, all with TH10, then another 200 KS99 runs. And considering the difference at that high TH level is marginal, even 400 total samples wouldn't be enough to determine anything accurately. There's just no way at all to make any kind of justified claim that TH10 is worse than TH9. It was certainly not worth the effort of people to go test it.

I'm tired of people saying THF and /THF makes no difference, because it does, and it's not too small either. Only individual tiers between those levels don't add up as much as the two tiers before. But saying it like that is what makes people waste their time on pointless tests like this.

[Insaniac]

No one here really believed that TH10 did literally nothing but Camate's post pretty much confirms that it does functionally nothing and that we are correct in the belief that you are better off having someone /thf and increasing your kill speed than using a THF with TH6 gear for a .1% increase in drops.

[Washburn]

How about:

Does the direction you face during synthesis alter success/HQ rates?

Does Moon phase matter?

Day of the week?

How do the Synergized crafting Stalls add up with traditional guild point enhancements?

[Cowardlybabooon]

Does treasure hunter +1 from armor function at all in the same way as the job trait? I recall some very old testing suggesting that TH1 and TH2 function entirely different from each other. As well as spculation that it adds the ability for 2 of a certain item to drop, whereas the same mob will only drop one of that item without TH.

[slakyak]

How about:

Does the direction you face during synthesis alter success/HQ rates?

Does Moon phase matter?

Day of the week?

How do the Synergized crafting Stalls add up with traditional guild point enhancements?

No... Surely even Camate can't go there.

[Septimus]

Our Community Team counterpart over in Japan, Mocchi, with the aid of the QA team, decided it was time to do his own kind of Myth Busters, FFXI style to determine if the myth about the drop rate of Treasure Hunter 10 being worse than Treasure Hunter 9 was true or not.

They headed out to Mount Zhayolm to slay 1000 Sulphuric Jagils. 500 with Treasure Hunter 9 and an additional 500 with Treasure Hunter 10.

So was it true…or is this just another myth that got busted?





1. Is the Treasure Hunter effect really getting stronger like it should?
When the Treasure Hunter effect increased, we checked not only the message displayed, but the actual values that were originally set and found that it was increasing like it should.

2. TH9 vs. TH10
Since it would take a ridiculous amount of time to test this by manually increasing the Treasure Hunter effect to 9 or 10 via attacks and what not, we prepared special equipment that gave us Treasure Hunter+9 and Treasure Hunter+10 and tested it on MNK/WHM, removing all the other equipment. As a result of our testing, we determined that we got more Pugil Scales with Treasure Hunter 10.


880
※This is a screenshot from actual testing.



While we don’t want to be the destroyers of anyone’s dreams, let us know if there are any other FFXI myths you would like busted :)

The real question was how many Pugil Scales did Mocchi get with TH9 versus TH10. And what would be the comparison between no TH, TH2, and TH3 natively available to a THF versus TH3 from gear or THF sub and gear.

Don't give me that look. I was trained to design research protocol. >_>

[Byrth]

I'm tired of people saying THF and /THF makes no difference, because it does, and it's not too small either. Only individual tiers between those levels don't add up as much as the two tiers before. But saying it like that is what makes people waste their time on pointless tests like this.

To be fair, you aren't going to go above TH7 on trash mobs (like in Dynamis), and you'll only get there quasi-regularly if you use Thief's Knife (which slows down your kills and farming). Swapping out TK drops you to TH5/6, which has never been shown to be significantly different from TH2. So yes, people are totally justified saying THF=/THF in a lot of situations.

If you're going to kill Fafnirs for Honey Wines? Sure, DD it down using SA and TA only like the 4x THF + RDM JP party I saw.
If you're going to mass-kill any kind of monster? No, you're wasting your time using anything more than /THF.

[FrankReynolds]

Our Community Team counterpart over in Japan, Mocchi, with the aid of the QA team, decided it was time to do his own kind of Myth Busters, FFXI style to determine if the myth about the drop rate of Treasure Hunter 10 being worse than Treasure Hunter 9 was true or not.

They headed out to Mount Zhayolm to slay 1000 Sulphuric Jagils. 500 with Treasure Hunter 9 and an additional 500 with Treasure Hunter 10.

So was it true…or is this just another myth that got busted?





1. Is the Treasure Hunter effect really getting stronger like it should?
When the Treasure Hunter effect increased, we checked not only the message displayed, but the actual values that were originally set and found that it was increasing like it should.

2. TH9 vs. TH10
Since it would take a ridiculous amount of time to test this by manually increasing the Treasure Hunter effect to 9 or 10 via attacks and what not, we prepared special equipment that gave us Treasure Hunter+9 and Treasure Hunter+10 and tested it on MNK/WHM, removing all the other equipment. As a result of our testing, we determined that we got more Pugil Scales with Treasure Hunter 10.


880
※This is a screenshot from actual testing.



While we don’t want to be the destroyers of anyone’s dreams, let us know if there are any other FFXI myths you would like busted :)

So basically, Increasing Treasure Hunter has such poor effects that even the Development team wasn't sure if it worked? great, now fix it.

[Vold]

While we don’t want to be the destroyers of anyone’s dreams, let us know if there are any other FFXI myths you would like busted :)
I heard a myth about how you guys were considering allowing me exclusive access to your play server and character with TH6-12 gear so I can go on a mass killing spree to provide the community with faster test numbers to relieve you peeps of the troubles of dodging the questions of the maths behind TH. Is this true??

[Arcon]

To be fair, you aren't going to go above TH7 on trash mobs (like in Dynamis), and you'll only get there quasi-regularly if you use Thief's Knife (which slows down your kills and farming). Swapping out TK drops you to TH5/6, which has never been shown to be significantly different from TH2. So yes, people are totally justified saying THF=/THF in a lot of situations.

If you're going to kill Fafnirs for Honey Wines? Sure, DD it down using SA and TA only like the 4x THF + RDM JP party I saw.
If you're going to mass-kill any kind of monster? No, you're wasting your time using anything more than /THF.

I don't disagree, I'm just saying people complaining that there's no difference at all is what makes people who could test useful things waste a lot of time just to tell us that "everything is as it should be".

[Laphine]

hmm i could have sweared the whole issue on this thread was on THII vs THIII traits, as in, why do they work so differently? they really shouldn't.

[Zirael]

The real question was how many Pugil Scales did Mocchi get with TH9 versus TH10. And what would be the comparison between no TH, TH2, and TH3 natively available to a THF versus TH3 from gear or THF sub and gear.

Don't give me that look. I was trained to design research protocol. >_>
Telling us "it's working as intended" tells us nothing interesting. Where's the test data, confidence levels, deviation levels, deviations from expected results?

[Fusionx]

I can't help but think the answer for this:
1. Should have been obvious
2. Could have been checked in the code without this testing

Also for this being a "test" where's the data? Simply saying "more" doesn't really tell us anything. How many more? 1? 10? 100? If you're going to do more of this in the future we need to see more detailed results.


How about asking the developers about the whole moon phase drop rate and direction faced while crafting? Heck, if we actually got a straight answer it would put XI ahead of XIV in terms of this mystery. That'd be a first.

[MarkovChain]

He said it would take a considerable amount of time so TH9>10 is probably less than 1% making it essentially useless.

[Gotterdammerung]

While we don’t want to be the destroyers of anyone’s dreams, let us know if there are any other FFXI myths you would like busted :)

Um, I love this idea of FFXI mythbusters XD

Can you bust this myth?

"Charisma has hidden effects"

[slakyak]

Also it's nice to know that they still do testing at SE HQ... for a while there I thought all the testing had been handed over to the player-base and FFXIV gained a few extra staff.

/cough

[Babygyrl]

you know that is pretty cool that you guys actually tested that!! def you should do more tests on other possible "myths" out there lol

[Urteil]

Our development team just figured out that 10 > 9.


It is only uphill from here folks, there is nothing they can't conquer.

No curelock they can't fix.

No menu's they can't make unterribad.

[FrankReynolds]

I don't disagree, I'm just saying people complaining that there's no difference at all is what makes people who could test useful things waste a lot of time just to tell us that "everything is as it should be".

Why do they have to test it at all? They could just ask the people who wrote the friggin code. If the gain is that bad that it requires a 1500+ kill sample to be sure it even exists, then it is a crap ability and they should be telling the Development team to get their crap together. Treasure hunter is the excuse behind every short coming SE puts on Thief. Everybody knows it does "something". The problem is that the "something " that it does is tantamount to pissing on a forest fire.

[Ophannus]

Test what "Enhances Soul Jump" effect does on Lancer Cuissots +2. Nobody has any idea what these do at all.

[Sasaraixx]

He said it would take a considerable amount of time so TH9>10 is probably less than 1% making it essentially useless.

You're still not understanding. He said it would take a considerable amount of time to test TH 9 vs10 by raising it MANUALLY. That is why they used equip that gave TH+9 and TH+10.

[Motenten]

For a sample size of 500 mobs, and assuming the drop rate of pugil scales is somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% (Wiki lists 16% for Sicklemoon Jagils in the same zone, though with a pitiful sample size; not really relevant, just need to know roughly where on the continuum the drop rate is likely to be), the 95% margin of error for that test is 3.5%.

That means that if the drop rate of the two runs differed by less than 3.5% then the test proves, literally, nothing. It is not statistically significant. If the drop rates differed by more than 3.5% but less than 7% there's still a chance that the two populations have identical 'real' rates, and the results are less than trustworthy. If the drop rates differed by more than 7% I'll be extremely surprised.

That said...



2. TH9 vs. TH10
Since it would take a ridiculous amount of time to test this by manually increasing the Treasure Hunter effect to 9 or 10 via attacks and what not
Which basically means you guys are admitting that putting more than TH3 on a mob is useless, which basically means TH+ gear is useless. Give me a reason to bring a thf. (at least you admit TH9+ is useless, so why even implement it, make it cap at TH10).

Camate's statement does not have anything to do with your interpreted meaning. He's saying that if you want to sample 500 kills with TH 9 and TH 10 the old fashioned way, you have to get enough procs to reach those two tiers under normal fighting conditions. That means you'll have excess samples of TH 6/7/8, and maybe 11/12, and have to fight in such a way that the battles will last long enough to get said procs.

Since they were only interested in testing TH9 vs TH10, that's a huge amount of wasted time and effort. Of course if the players want to test those values they have to expend that effort, but the devs can skip past all that tediousness.

None of which has anything whatsoever to do with the usefulness or uselessness of any TH tier.

[FrankReynolds]

You're still not understanding. He said it would take a considerable amount of time to test TH 9 vs10 by raising it MANUALLY. That is why they used equip that gave TH+9 and TH+10.

we learn from this:
A) treasure hunter from gear is the same as treasure hunter from procs.
B) treasure hunter from gear / procs. is so weak that it takes 1000 + kills to see a measurable increase from it.

Great job testing guys, now make them fix it.

Edit: I guess if you plan on killing the same NM 1000+ times, then you will see the benefit of bringing a Thief. That means that the reason Treasure Hunter is considered SOOOOOO powerful is: we will be Killing the same Notorious Monster 1,000,000,000 Times. Thanks for that glimpse into the future of FFXI.

[FrankReynolds]

You're still not understanding. He said it would take a considerable amount of time to test TH 9 vs10 by raising it MANUALLY. That is why they used equip that gave TH+9 and TH+10.

IDC how he did the test. The fact that a test that size was required is the problem. It means that the effect is incredibly small.

Let me give you an example: I'm trying to get an Adamantoise Egg. If a Aspid pop costs $6,000,000, and I need to kill 1,000 of them to see a raise in drops from the trait, how many years will I have to spend killing aspid to see the value in bringing a Thief?

[Motenten]

And you seem to fail to understand the meaning of statistical sample sizes.

For example, suppose that TH9 gave a 20% drop rate on an item, and TH10 gave a 25% drop rate (pretty substantial for only an extra +1 proc when you're already starting at 9). Would you consider that a significant increase in drop rate, implying a significant value in going from TH9 to TH10? I think most people would.

However, 500 kills for each TH level is not enough to statistically separate those two values. 1000 kills is not enough. You'd need about 4000 kills to statistically distinguish a full 5% increase in drop rate (a 25% increase in drops received), and even then all you know is that TH10 > TH9; you still couldn't really be certain of how much of a difference there is.

Your complaint that you need thousands of kills to be sure of a difference between the two TH levels is merely a reflection of someone who doesn't understand statistics. You will *always* need thousands of samples to get any kind of decent understanding of the underlying rates of anything in a game like this. You can only get away from it if you're dealing with data that you know is discreet and precisely repeatable, such as exact haste or enmity values.



Now, to take things further aside:

I've read one bit of testing which implied that TH1 was a 50% increase in drop rate over baseline, TH2 was an additional 50%, and each additional point of TH above that was +10% (a fairly reasonable model, really; I'd like to try testing to confirm it). So, TH9 would be 50%+50% + 7*10% = +170% (and TH10 would be +180%), or 2.7x the baseline drop rate. If the original drop rate was 10%, that means you'd have a 27% drop rate with TH9 and 28% drop rate with TH10.

To distinguish between TH9 and TH10 in that model you'd need about 25,000 samples to reach a margin of error small enough to be reasonably certain of your results, though a few thousand samples at each of multiple points to create a trend line would probably be more useful.

In such a hypothetical model, the 50% tiers would be:
TH0 - baseline
TH1 - +50%
TH2 - +50%
TH7 - +50%
TH12 - +50%

A main thf and a single TH proc (TH7 total) would be the equivalent of an additional 50% TH tier, which is decent, though not exceptional. Since you're already 100% over baseline with TH2, it would be a 25% boost in the number of drops received over what you could get from a /thf. That would not be terribly out of line with the general feeling of the gain from bringing a thf main compared to a /thf mule.

The data for this model was taken from before the level cap raise, though, so there's the potential that the third TH trait thf natively gets could be another +50%, with each TH+1 from gear or procs being +10%. That would make TH7 +190% instead of +150%, and would give 45% more drops than a /thf.

[Lokithor]

TH10 is so ordinary. Real thieves will turn the TH up to 11. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7IZZXQ89Oc)

[Granny]

so where are the results of the test you are trying to convince us of... This is nuts, gonna tell us they solved a myth but show no results yet go to the trouble of posting...

To top it all off everyone would be a million times more interested in testing between TH2 and TH3+ in the first place, AND actually SEEING the RESULTS, HINT HINT, lols.

[Agetos]

TH10 is so ordinary. Real thieves will turn the TH up to 11. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7IZZXQ89Oc)

truly rofl at that link

[Vold]

What we're dying to know is just how much TH10 wins out over TH2. I just don't even know what the JP are doing to be fussing over TH9 vs 10. Of all things TH, it's TH9 vs TH10.

All this testing and fooling around is all fun and games but at the end of the day it will never provide cold hard 100% facts no matter how high that kill count gets because numbers will always be skewed by some factor that can't be avoided without 24/7 testing by the same person. Therefore I will ask the devs the following question if reps will be so kind as to pass it along:

Who is your daddy, and what does he do?

Can you explain to us why we should shoot for max TH effectiveness without using the response "because the more/higher you have the better" ?

It won't kill anyone for us to know the maths behind it. Some might pout over possibly weak increases per tier but whatev. I think it's pretty safe to say that the player base is always going to do everything they can to up drop chances in the standard LS alliance gig and that means bringing THFs, period. It'd just be darn handy to know for the solo/duo/low man teams out there that are less than serious business. If I can sacrifice my THF to take my war/thf instead for sake of kill speed and know for a fact that it's not totally crippling my drop rates that would be the best thing since pizza on a stick. Not that I'd do it often but if the situation was dire enough I could be convinced to go with the ancient TH2 trait.

I don't know. Shrug. It's been about a decade. I'm ready for some of those "nono" questions to finally be answered after all these years. See what's right and wrong. Laugh it up about fail theories over the years. Etc. Granted, TH procs are fairly new but TH is TH.

[Babekeke]

Subbed you only get TH2, not TH3. If you say that TH3 is useful, you just gave yourself a reason to bring a THF.

Unless you have A TH aug Tarutaru Sash, of course. Or you're in abyssea using TH atma. Or you have treasure hound in Quon present zones.

/THF users will no doubt go out of their way to get a taru sash, so /THF = TH3/4

_____________________________________________________________________________

(Edit so as not to require a second post)


we learn from this:
A) treasure hunter from gear is the same as treasure hunter from procs.

Correct.


B) treasure hunter from gear / procs. is so weak that it takes 1000 + kills to see a measurable increase from it.

Great job testing guys, now make them fix it.

Edit: I guess if you plan on killing the same NM 1000+ times, then you will see the benefit of bringing a Thief. That means that the reason Treasure Hunter is considered SOOOOOO powerful is: we will be Killing the same Notorious Monster 1,000,000,000 Times. Thanks for that glimpse into the future of FFXI.

All I can say to this is OMFG, are you serious?
If they reported back and said:
we killed 1 mob with TH9 and 1 mob with TH10, and we got more scales on the TH10 kill we'd have sent them back with their tails between their legs. Instead, they produce a fair sample size, and idiots like you just see it as NEEDING 1000 kills to see a difference.

The trouble with increasing a chance, is that it's still a chance. If you increase TH to have a 95% drop rate and kill a mob once, you could still not get the drop then next time kill it with 5% chance of drop and it drops.

I hope you're glad I took out the time to respond to your trolling :)

[Monchat]

To be fair, you aren't going to go above TH7 on trash mobs (like in Dynamis), and you'll only get there quasi-regularly if you use Thief's Knife (which slows down your kills and farming). Swapping out TK drops you to TH5/6, which has never been shown to be significantly different from TH2. So yes, people are totally justified saying THF=/THF in a lot of situations.

Honnestly I wouldn't go as far as claim THF=/THF. TH6 is clearly superior to TH2 when farming common drop items ( typically your favorite abyssea pop item), not that it matters a lot since AH is flooded, but anyway. In dynamis I get almost the same amunt of coins each times ( same camps, same set up), and the two times I forgot to change my mule job to THF we got -20% coins ( 200 instead of 250); not a lot of difference indeed. I have many reason to bring THF over /THF, but camate confirms that THF is nothing more than a TH robot. Give me a reason to come back to event as THF main, I used to loveTHF! Or at least reasons to equip my THF mule with something else than Thief knife, armlets, boots, a boomerang and lv 90, and try to meree.

The otherday I was killing tahrongi T3 VNM for the epeen evasion legs. Blu proced right away, could have killed it in 5 minutes, but since I lost claim on the 2 previous ones, I decided to proc TH10 on it with my gimp mule ( again, only TK, AA, feet, range lol) through SA and TA. Took literally 30 minute to get TH9 ( I know since protect wor off at TH9 msg). The next group wanting to pop it was so mad, and I understand. I have many examples with NQ behemoths, taking 30mn to proc TH10 when there is another group( usually 5 THF 1 RDM) waiting to pop.

TH 9 or 10 is something they invented to piss of the player. Th8 is relatively fast to get ( 2- 3 SA and TAs) , but im not really sure if its much better than TH6, and beyond that is rediculously long for such a small improvement.

[Arcon]

The data for this model was taken from before the level cap raise, though, so there's the potential that the third TH trait thf natively gets could be another +50%, with each TH+1 from gear or procs being +10%. That would make TH7 +190% instead of +150%, and would give 45% more drops than a /thf.

Not sure if you've been following this thread (and the other one (http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxi/threads/11492-Screwed-again-Proposed-THF-job-adjustments.)), but we already had a fairly large sample (http://www.bluegartr.com/threads/95489-TH-testing-final-results?p=3935668&viewfull=1#post3935668) for TH0 and TH2 from before the update, which seem to be indicating something else: re-rolls on each tier. And recent testing (http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxi/threads/12798-Treasure-Hunter-Testing), while smaller in scale, seems to coincide with that model for TH1 and TH2 only... after that it surprisingly changes style and goes on differently.

However, I believe there's not any kind of static increase (percentual or otherwise), because that would mean they would either have to cap the effect of TH, or the level of TH or the overall drop rate, none of which I believe is true, otherwise you could reach 100% easily on some drops, which I believe isn't possible with any amount of TH, for several reasons.

[Atomic_Skull]

So it would have to be something like 200 KS99 runs, all with TH10, then another 200 KS99 runs.

TH has never affected armory crates.


hmm i could have sweared the whole issue on this thread was on THII vs THIII traits, as in, why do they work so differently? they really shouldn't.


Look at the job trait list, It's actually a second Treasure Hunter II not Treasure Hunter III.

[Byrth]

In order to see an effect in 500 kills that's significant at the 95% confidence level, the change would have needed to be about 3~5%.

[Arcon]

TH has never affected armory crates.

My bad, I meant spawned kings fights.

[Motenten]

@Arcon:

I have sort of been following it. Mainly only noted that there's different treasure pools for different sets of golems in sky.. >.>

The problem is that all evidence for the multi-roll theory seems circumstantial. It works in some cases, but not in others.

Here's some TH data I have from a few years ago:


Savanna Dhalmel (Killed 1002 times with TH 0)
11 dhalmel hide [Max #: 2] [Items/Kill: 0.011] [Drop Rate: 1.00 %] [% of Drops: 4.40 %]
22 giant femur [Max #: 1] [Items/Kill: 0.022] [Drop Rate: 2.20 %] [% of Drops: 8.80 %]
100 slice of dhalmel meat [Max #: 2] [Items/Kill: 0.100] [Drop Rate: 8.98 %] [% of Drops: 40.00 %]
3 sprig of papaka grass [Max #: 1] [Items/Kill: 0.003] [Drop Rate: 0.30 %] [% of Drops: 1.20 %]
114 tuft of dhalmel hair [Max #: 1] [Items/Kill: 0.114] [Drop Rate: 11.38 %] [% of Drops: 45.60 %]

Savanna Dhalmel (Killed 1000 times with TH 1)
19 dhalmel hide [Max #: 3] [Items/Kill: 0.019] [Drop Rate: 1.70 %] [% of Drops: 3.39 %]
46 giant femur [Max #: 1] [Items/Kill: 0.046] [Drop Rate: 4.60 %] [% of Drops: 8.20 %]
350 slice of dhalmel meat [Max #: 2] [Items/Kill: 0.350] [Drop Rate: 27.00 %] [% of Drops: 62.39 %]
6 sprig of papaka grass [Max #: 1] [Items/Kill: 0.006] [Drop Rate: 0.60 %] [% of Drops: 1.07 %]
140 tuft of dhalmel hair [Max #: 1] [Items/Kill: 0.140] [Drop Rate: 14.00 %] [% of Drops: 24.96 %]

Savanna Dhalmel (Killed 200 times with TH 2)
7 dhalmel hide [Max #: 2] [Items/Kill: 0.035] [Drop Rate: 2.50 %] [% of Drops: 4.52 %]
13 giant femur [Max #: 1] [Items/Kill: 0.065] [Drop Rate: 6.50 %] [% of Drops: 8.39 %]
96 slice of dhalmel meat [Max #: 2] [Items/Kill: 0.480] [Drop Rate: 37.50 %] [% of Drops: 61.94 %]
1 sprig of papaka grass [Max #: 1] [Items/Kill: 0.005] [Drop Rate: 0.50 %] [% of Drops: 0.65 %]
38 tuft of dhalmel hair [Max #: 1] [Items/Kill: 0.190] [Drop Rate: 19.00 %] [% of Drops: 24.52 %]

(I apparently got distracted from the TH2 and higher testing; should go back and finish that)

From the thread, there was mention of another test on dhalmel drop rates:

It only works well if you completely disregard cases where it doesn't work. Dhalmel Meat, which can double drop, dropped at 100/1000 for TH0 and 358/700 for TH2. ... Only 100 Dhalmel Meat were obtained during that set, so the prediction deviates heavily from what was observed.

Drop groupings (not shown) allow easy verification of drop distributions. For mine:

TH0 gave 10 2x drops; the remaining 80 meats would be singles, with 50 drops in each slot (5% drop rate). However that introduces an extra margin of error, so it would be better to consider it as 100 drops out of 2004 'attempts' (kills*slots), with the assumption that drops for each slot are independant. This gives a CI interval of 4.12%-6.04%.

TH1 gave 80 2x drops, leaving 190 single drops, and 175 drops in each slot (17.5%). Getting CI on 350 drops out of 2000 (kills*slots) we get a CI range of 15.90%-19.23%.

TH2 gave 21 2x drops, leaving 54 single drops, and 48 drops in each slot (24%). CI interval is 20.07%-28.43%.


If we assume TH1 was one reroll, the range of the base drop rate is 8.29%-10.13%, significantly out of the range of the TH0 data.

If we assume TH2 was two rerolls, the range of the base drop rate is 7.20%-10.55%, on par with the result from the TH1 data, but still out of range of the TH0 value. They both converge on a 9% base drop rate.

Which, coincidentally, is the "drop rate" of the TH0 data - the number of kills for which at least one of that item dropped. Possibly an indication that the drop rate for the second slot item is gimped under TH0? EG: 9% base drop rate for slot 1, but only ~1% for slot 2; slot 2 drop rate raised to match slot 1 if TH1 or higher is present. A thought to file away for later.


Dhalmel hair:
9.55%-13.5% @TH0
11.98%-16.29% @TH1 >> 6.18%-8.51%
14.14%-25.03% @TH2 >> 4.95%-9.16%

In no case does the back-calculated drop rate based on multiple rolls fall within the CI of the baseline. There's no chance of multiple drops interfering in this set, either.

[Arcon]

The problem with any kind of multiple items dropping is that we don't know how multiple items work at all. They could be independant, they could be not. It could work tiered too, which is what I consider most likely, similar to (if not the same as) armoury crates. For each slot there's several options that can drop. Whether or not a slot drops at all could be affected by TH, the rest distributed (not necessarily uniformly) within that slot. Or, there's several groupings, some of which allow several drops, and the number of drops is affected by TH, possibly even whether or not that grouping is considered for drops at all.

In short, any mob with a too complicated drop pool should be used as a testing subject, because we don't know how to interpret the results. An ideal starting testing mob would be one with only one drop. The Colibri's drops seem largely independent (although it's impossible to confirm), since the very large samples indicate that they both behave the same way under the influence of TH. Once we have TH figured out for very simple groupings (there's not many logical combinations with only 2 drops), we can approach more complex structures and analyze how they behave compared to the existing data.

Do you have more accurate testing data for those Dhalmel drop rates, as in, item groupings and their distribution? That could be very relevant, otherwise someone will have to repeat that test again. Can't even say if Dhalmel Hair drops are unrelated to the others.

Anyone wanna go mass murder Rock Lizards in South Gustaberg? A quick glance at wiki shows they have only one drop, with kinda low drop rate, easy kills and tons of them all around. Can even help noobs get some boots while at it. I think that's what I'll be doing once I get to play again. Would be nice to see if they confirm the Colibri findings, then we can use those as a base for mobs with two independant drops. From there on, we could try to confirm other multi-drop mobs' treasure pools and how they're affected by TH.

[Byrth]

Sorry, in a rush at the moment, but did you account for the fact that multiple different items can drop from the same drop slot? The problem with using a monster as messy as Dhalmels is that you don't necessarily know all drops are independent.

Edit: To explain a little more...
Slot 1: Dhalmel Meat or Dhalmel Hide
Slot 2: Dhalmel Meat or Papaka Grass
Slot 3: Dhalmel Hair or Giant Femur

Assuming TH "re-rolls a slot," the above situation would give dramatically different result than:
Slot 1: Dhalmel Meat
Slot 2: Dhalmel Meat
Slot 3: Dhalmel Hide
Slot 4: Papaka Grass
Slot 5: Dhalmel Hair
Slot 6: Giant Femur

iirc though, in the past when I've run the numbers on various situations, the increase is always higher than I'd predict with multiple drops sharing the same slot. At the end of the last thread on this, I just threw up my hands and said, "This looks like maybe how it works, but not for things that have multiple drops per slot."

[FrankReynolds]

All I can say to this is OMFG, are you serious?
If they reported back and said: we'd have sent them back with their tails between their legs. Instead, they produce a fair sample size, and idiots like you just see it as NEEDING 1000 kills to see a difference.

The trouble with increasing a chance, is that it's still a chance. If you increase TH to have a 95% drop rate and kill a mob once, you could still not get the drop then next time kill it with 5% chance of drop and it drops.

I hope you're glad I took out the time to respond to your trolling :)

The test required a sample size that big. You are a moron.

Edit: to reiterate. They didn't have to kill 1500 mobs to figure out how much of an increase it was. They killed 1500 mobs just to have reliable proof that there was any increase in drops at all.

[kewitt]

Myth about MNK gets TH +9 and +10 gear SWEET.... I seen it in a test image, and it's already fully developed it must be true!

You know this is how things get started right!

[Motenten]

Here's the grouping data for those parses:


TH0:
Dropped 0 items 785 times ( 78.34 %)
Dropped 1 items 189 times ( 18.86 %)
Dropped 2 items 23 times ( 2.30 %)
Dropped 3 items 5 times ( 0.50 %)


Number of times each group of items dropped.

785 [ 78.34 %] -- Nothing
101 [ 10.08 %] -- tuft of dhalmel hair
68 [ 6.79 %] -- slice of dhalmel meat
12 [ 1.20 %] -- giant femur
8 [ 0.80 %] -- slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat
7 [ 0.70 %] -- dhalmel hide
6 [ 0.60 %] -- slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
4 [ 0.40 %] -- giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat
3 [ 0.30 %] -- giant femur, tuft of dhalmel hair
2 [ 0.20 %] -- giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
1 [ 0.10 %] -- dhalmel hide, sprig of papaka grass
1 [ 0.10 %] -- sprig of papaka grass
1 [ 0.10 %] -- dhalmel hide, dhalmel hide
1 [ 0.10 %] -- slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
1 [ 0.10 %] -- dhalmel hide, sprig of papaka grass, tuft of dhalmel hair
1 [ 0.10 %] -- giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat

TH1:
Dropped 0 items 598 times ( 59.80 %)
Dropped 1 items 272 times ( 27.20 %)
Dropped 2 items 101 times ( 10.10 %)
Dropped 3 items 29 times ( 2.90 %)


Number of times each group of items dropped.

598 [ 59.80 %] -- Nothing
143 [ 14.30 %] -- slice of dhalmel meat
101 [ 10.10 %] -- tuft of dhalmel hair
57 [ 5.70 %] -- slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat
22 [ 2.20 %] -- giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat
18 [ 1.80 %] -- slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
17 [ 1.70 %] -- slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
12 [ 1.20 %] -- dhalmel hide
12 [ 1.20 %] -- giant femur
6 [ 0.60 %] -- giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat
4 [ 0.40 %] -- sprig of papaka grass
3 [ 0.30 %] -- giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
2 [ 0.20 %] -- dhalmel hide, slice of dhalmel meat
1 [ 0.10 %] -- dhalmel hide, sprig of papaka grass
1 [ 0.10 %] -- dhalmel hide, giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat
1 [ 0.10 %] -- giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat, sprig of papaka grass
1 [ 0.10 %] -- dhalmel hide, dhalmel hide, dhalmel hide
1 [ 0.10 %] -- giant femur, tuft of dhalmel hair

TH2:
Dropped 0 items 97 times ( 48.50 %)
Dropped 1 items 66 times ( 33.00 %)
Dropped 2 items 26 times ( 13.00 %)
Dropped 3 items 7 times ( 3.50 %)
Dropped 4 items 4 times ( 2.00 %)

Number of times each group of items dropped.

97 [ 48.50 %] -- Nothing
41 [ 20.50 %] -- slice of dhalmel meat
21 [ 10.50 %] -- tuft of dhalmel hair
14 [ 7.00 %] -- slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat
6 [ 3.00 %] -- slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
4 [ 2.00 %] -- giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat
4 [ 2.00 %] -- giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
3 [ 1.50 %] -- slice of dhalmel meat, slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
2 [ 1.00 %] -- giant femur, tuft of dhalmel hair
2 [ 1.00 %] -- dhalmel hide
2 [ 1.00 %] -- giant femur
1 [ 0.50 %] -- dhalmel hide, slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
1 [ 0.50 %] -- dhalmel hide, dhalmel hide, sprig of papaka grass
1 [ 0.50 %] -- giant femur, slice of dhalmel meat, tuft of dhalmel hair
1 [ 0.50 %] -- dhalmel hide, dhalmel hide, slice of dhalmel meat



I got a maximum of 4 drops with TH2. Given the probabilities of the highest dropping items (24% for each meat, 19% for hair, 7% for femur), the best chance of getting a 5-item drop pool assuming all drops are fully independant is 0.018%, or 1 in 5500. Since I only killed 200 in TH2, and 1000 in the others, it is not at all surprising that I didn't see that many at once.

The odds of a femur/meat/meat/hair drop (the only 4-drop combo) given the above probabilities is 0.17%. I 'should' have seen such a combo only once in 570 kills, but instead got 4 in 200. 0.17% is actually outside the confidence interval for 4/200, so there's certainly more to be considered.


Given possible drops of:
dhalmel meat (x2)
dhalmel hide (x3)
dhalmel hair
giant femur
papaka grass

A total of 8 items, which should be perfectly fine within the known limits of the game.

Combinations of items include:
femur/meat/meat/hair -- femur, meats and hair are all independant
hide/hide/grass -- grass is independant of at least 2 of the hide drops
hide/grass/hair -- hair is independant of at least one of the hide drops as well as grass
hide/femur/meat -- one hide is independant of femur and at least one of the meat drops
femur/meat/grass -- grass is independant of femur and at least one of the meats
hide/hide/meat -- at least one of the meats is independant of two hides


Even assuming some of the items can share drop slots, at best you're getting the third hide shared with the femur, the grass, the hair or the second meat. Such a limited combination seems rather pointless. I could maybe see the third hide being shared with the hair since the hair is a new drop for those mobs compared to previous dhalmels, but since the hides aren't part of the main analysis comparison here due to their relatively low drop rate it wouldn't matter much.


Reviewing the meat distributions:

TH0 data:
100 total
90 instance (kills with at least 1 meat)
10 2x drops

Raw drop rate: 100/1002 = 10%
Drop rate of total/(kills*slots) = 100/2004 = 5.0% (4.1%-6.0%)
Unique drop rate = 90/1002 = 9.0% (7.4%-10.9%)
Ratio of double to instance: 10/90 = 11.1% (6%-19.4%)


TH1 data:
350 total
270 instance
80 2x drops

Raw drop rate: 350/1000 = 35%
Drop rate of total/(kills*slots) = 350/2000 = 17.5% (15.9%-19.2%)
Unique drop rate = 270/1000 = 27.0% (24.3%-29.8%)
Ratio of double to instance: 80/270 = 29.7% (24.5%-35.3%)


TH2 data:
96 total
75 instance
21 2x drop

Raw drop rate: 96/200 = 48%
Drop rate of total/(kills*slots) = 96/400 = 24% (20%-28%)
Unique drop rate = 75/200 = 37.5% (31.1%-41.4%)
Ratio of double to instance: 21/75 = 28% (19%-39%)



You'll note that in each instance, the rate of double drops is higher than it should be if they were fully independent (compare double-to-instance ratio with total-per-kill*shot ratio). Margin of error for TH0 and TH1 also don't overlap between the two measures. TH2 overlaps, but 2x drop ratio is mostly higher than nominal drop rate.


Suppose we assume that the second meat can only drop if the first meat drops. That is, they are not two independent slots, but one independent slot and one dependent slot.

The drop rate on the independent slot can be determined by the number of unique kills where that item appeared (unique-drop-rate ratio). In this case, that gives 9%, 27% and 37.5% for TH0/1/2, respectively.

In that case, the odds of the second drop appear to always be within the margin of error of the unique drop rate ratio.

Implication: this is where multiple rolls come in. EG: Chance of main drop is 10%. If successful, you can make another roll on the second slot, but still with the 10% chance. This works for the (roughly) 9% TH0, 27% TH1 and 36% TH2 for the above data.

Expected overall drop rate given those rough guesstimates:
TH0: 9% + (9%*9%) = 9.8% (actual: 10%)
TH1: 27% + (27%*27%) = 34.3% (actual: 35%)
TH2: 36% + (36%*36%) = 49.0% (actual: 48%)


It's impossible to figure out if it works the same on the hide drops due to how few sample points there are (I suspect that they have a higher base chance of a second drop; it would be reasonable to have a minimum 10% chance on the second roll), however the above scale makes me rather confident that that is in fact how the multi-drop system works.

[Arcon]

It's impossible to figure out if it works the same on the hide drops due to how few sample points there are (I suspect that they have a higher base chance of a second drop; it would be reasonable to have a minimum 10% chance on the second roll), however the above scale makes me rather confident that that is in fact how the multi-drop system works.

I have to say I'm quite intrigued by these results. There are a few points that I find worrisome with this model though, for example the aforementioned higher base chance on certain second drops. Personally I don't think a low cap is very likely, but it is possible. Also, it doesn't explain why we get the results that we did on Colibris, or, for that matter, how TH even increases these drops. According to that, TH would only affect the first item in a multi-drop scenario, the rest would be determined by that new drop rate itself. This should be quite accurate to test on Battering Rams, only getting a large sample size might be a bit bothersome on those.


TH0 data:
100 total
90 instance (kills with at least 1 meat)
10 2x drops

Raw drop rate: 100/1002 = 10%
Drop rate of total/(kills*slots) = 90/2004 = 4.5% (3.7%-5.5%)
Unique drop rate = 90/1002 = 9.0% (7.4%-10.9%)
Ratio of double to instance: 10/90 = 11.1% (6%-19.4%)

I'm guessing the total/kills*slots should be 100/2004? It would raise the percentage, along with the margin of error, so that it would, in fact, overlap with the double-to-instance ratio. However, given the results I still think it's not unlikely (although I'll go over some of the boundary calculations tomorrow, just to be sure).

If this is true, we could test multi-drop behaviour independantly of TH effects (because it wouldn't affect subsequent drops, at least not directly). For TH itself I'd still try to figure it out on mobs with simple loot distribution, and then see how/if we can apply that logic to multi-drops. But this is a nice sample to have, and will be useful for further study.

One more question, are the drops, as listed above, in the order they appeared in in the game?

[Atomic_Skull]

If +10 from gear alone is the same as +10 from Treasure Hunter I through III plus gear and procs and anything over TH3 has a minuscule effect compared with the first three tiers then /THF with the TH+1 augmented tarutaru sash is 99% as good as an actual THF.

If that is the case then THF really *is* a waste of a party slot.

[Motenten]

I'm guessing the total/kills*slots should be 100/2004? It would raise the percentage, along with the margin of error, so that it would, in fact, overlap with the double-to-instance ratio.

Yeah, mistake there. The overlap is pretty miniscule, though: 0.07%.

Edited above post with corrected values.


There are a few points that I find worrisome with this model though, for example the aforementioned higher base chance on certain second drops. Personally I don't think a low cap is very likely, but it is possible.

Actually, the more I think about it the more it makes sense. The nominal drop rate on the hides is something like 1%. If the chance of an additional drop was also 1%, seeing a second drop in the pool would be almost unheard of, never mind 3 at once. Given that the chance of the first item to drop is already low, giving the second drop at least a 10% chance isn't going to dramatically change the overall drop rate, but will at least make it not completely impossible to get multiple drops of an item.


Also, it doesn't explain why we get the results that we did on Colibris, or, for that matter, how TH even increases these drops.

Granted.


According to that, TH would only affect the first item in a multi-drop scenario, the rest would be determined by that new drop rate itself.

That's both correct and confusingly wrong. TH increases the drop rate of the first item. The chance at a second item is based on the drop rate of the first item (with possible lower cap), therefore TH must inherently increase the drop rate of the second item as well. It's just not necessary to extract them as independent elements of the calculation, though you can use the drop rate of the second item to confirm the first.


This should be quite accurate to test on Battering Rams, only getting a large sample size might be a bit bothersome on those.

Got tons of them in Abyssea La Theine :)


One more question, are the drops, as listed above, in the order they appeared in in the game?
No. I can get that from the raw data log, though....

Slot order:

dhalmel meat
dhalmel meat
giant femur
dhalmel hair
papaka grass
dhalmel hide
dhalmel hide
dhalmel hide

Confirmed all combinations. Femur is after meat and before hair; hair is after femur and before grass; grass is after hair and before hide.

[Byrth]

There was a confirmed case of non-independent drop slots in Dynamis - Tav pre-patch. Expansion -1 armors could only drop if RotZ non-expansion armors dropped.

[DebbieGibson]

The test required a sample size that big. You are a moron.

Edit: to reiterate. They didn't have to kill 1500 mobs to figure out how much of an increase it was. They killed 1500 mobs just to have reliable proof that there was any increase in drops at all.

Which is how it should be, that way a thf is not required, but still provides a benefit.

Also, you whine a lot. Also, I told you so.

[Arcon]

Yeah, mistake there. The overlap is pretty miniscule, though: 0.07%.

Yeah, as I said, it's unlikely that those assumptions are wrong, even with that. Thinking about it, it's also quick and easy to implement, so it does seem like a real possibility.


Actually, the more I think about it the more it makes sense. The nominal drop rate on the hides is something like 1%. If the chance of an additional drop was also 1%, seeing a second drop in the pool would be almost unheard of, never mind 3 at once. Given that the chance of the first item to drop is already low, giving the second drop at least a 10% chance isn't going to dramatically change the overall drop rate, but will at least make it not completely impossible to get multiple drops of an item.

I'm not quite sure what to think of that. On the one hand, it would make sense, because otherwise some items would be nearly impossible to get double dropped, and even less triple dropped (if this extends to the third slot as well). On the other hand, it makes me question SE's intentions. Why make an item double drop (or even triple drop) but give it such an abysmal droprate? It's not exactly the same thing (higher single-droprate versus lower double-droprate), I'm aware of that, but still, the one gives the player a chance to get more of it (making more drop), the other gives the player a chance to get less of it (making lower droprates), especially as in this hide-example. I'm not quite sure why SE would even go there. Also, that one single triple-drop somehow bothers me even more. Such a minimal drop rate, yet it can drop three of them, with even a lot worse drop rate? Not sure what to make of it... then again, confusing the shit out of their playerbase seems to be SE's favorite pastime.


That's both correct and confusingly wrong. TH increases the drop rate of the first item. The chance at a second item is based on the drop rate of the first item (with possible lower cap), therefore TH must inherently increase the drop rate of the second item as well. It's just not necessary to extract them as independent elements of the calculation, though you can use the drop rate of the second item to confirm the first.

Yeah, that's what I meant by "not directly". This allows us to regard those events as seperate processes, and as such, test them independantly (assuming it's correct, and TH has no further effect on subsequent drops). I'm really curious to test this further, I think I'll go slaughter some Rams when I get the chance.


Got tons of them in Abyssea La Theine :)

I didn't know these had the same drops as normal Rams. That's very useful intel, thanks.


Slot order:

dhalmel meat
dhalmel meat
giant femur
dhalmel hair
papaka grass
dhalmel hide
dhalmel hide
dhalmel hide

Confirmed all combinations. Femur is after meat and before hair; hair is after femur and before grass; grass is after hair and before hide.

Thanks for providing that info. I'll put up a TH-results masterfile with all clean results I can get my hands on, neatly formatted in an XML sheet. Will make it nice for automated processing, which is something I'm working on right now.

[Garota]

Japanese Community Team's TH testing needs more data... Not only that, they hacked the system to have TH9 & TH10 as MNK/WHM.

[Babekeke]

Due to all the bleating from mnks about how they got nothing from this update, SE plan to release this TH10 gear for mnk in the next update.

[FrankReynolds]

Due to all the bleating from mnks about how they got nothing from this update, SE plan to release this TH10 gear for mnk in the next update.


But they will nerf their TP gains, and put all of their abilities on 1 timer right?

[Insaniac]

But they will nerf their TP gains, and put all of their abilities on 1 timer right?

100 fists will be removed and MNKs new 2hr will be counterstance. Boost will be put on a 1 minute timer and all MNK WSs will suck without using boost.

[Babekeke]

Since doing Voidwatch and seeing that TH is split into 2 types, (chance of drops and quality of drops) It got me wondering whether the TH procs as they rise up alter different effects?
It was proven long ago that TH1 and TH2 work in different ways, but what about the next 10+ levels? Does every odd proc add a % chance for treasure to drop, and every even proc increase the quality of the items to drop? Does TH1, 4, 7, 10 increase the chance of treasure dropping, TH2, 5, 8, 11 increase the chance of multiple items droppping, and TH3, 6, 9, 12 increase the quality of the itmes that do drop?

And finally the million dollar question: will we ever know?
I doubt it.

[Insaniac]

1) Voidwatch has nothing to do with TH. The only thing TH does in voidwatch is add additional lights across the entire spectrum if you fail to reach cap.
2) TH1 and 2 have never been proven to do different things. The strongest theory is that they actually do the same exact thing.
3) TH has been proven to not effect the quality of drops on multiple items that are 100% drops and share a slot.
4) Have I been trolled? Maybe.

[noodles355]

2) TH1 and 2 have never been proven to do different things. The strongest theory is that they actually do the same exact thing.To clear it up a bit, the current generally believed theory is that both TH1 and TH2 add another chance (re-roll) at that item drop slot. I believe the mis-understanding about them doing different things is that they do seperate things, IE, it's not just adding a flat addative bonus like Attack Bonus or Accuracy Bonus traits.